NCAA Tournament Projections: 'Bracket Now' Commentary for March 8th, 2009

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I had to make a lot of tough decisions today. Some people will not agree with me. Trust me, this was difficult to do, and I can see both sides of the argument, but I went with my gut this week.

Let’s start with Davidson. This is a team who we know can do some damage in the tournament. But what have they done to get to the tournament? I’m not in the business of handing out bids. Let’s check their resume. They are 25-7 with an RPI 67 and a SOS of 176. They won the Southern Conference regular season title, but it was not easy. They had mid-season slip-ups against Charleston and The Citadel. They just lost to College of Charleston in the conference semis. They played some of the big boys out of conference: Oklahoma, Duke, Purdue, and Butler, but they lost them all. Their only real quality win came against West Virginia. Their next most impressive win came against NC State. I just can’t put the Wildcats in knowing there are more deserving teams.

Now, the Missouri Valley Conference, hats off to Northern Iowa who earned the automatic bid. I thought long and hard about the Creighton Blue Jays, and in the end, decided that they qualified for the field of 65. Creighton is 26-7 with an RPI of 39 and a SOS of 106. The Missouri Valley is a lot tougher than the Southern Conference. Creighton split with MVC champs Northern Iowa, and split with runner-up Illinois State as well. Creighton also has some nice out of conference wins against Dayton, and fellow bubble team New Mexico. The overall strength of the MVC is #9 in the nation, ahead of Conference USA (Memphis’ conference) and the West Coast Conference (Gonzaga & St. Mary’s). I feel that I can fully justify getting two MVC teams in this season.

St. Mary’s. Has there ever been a team that we’ve been more unsure of? The Gaels defeated Providence and San Diego State earlier in the year. They were starting to find their stride when Patty Mills went down with an injury. St. Mary’s stumbled a bit, losing 4 of 5 games, although two of those losses were to Gonzaga. St. Mary’s seems to have righted itself with a win over Utah State in the bracketbuster, and now gets Mills back for the WCC tournament. St. Mary’s also did a very unusual thing. They have scheduled an additional game against Eastern Washington in hopes of letting the committee see St. Mary’s with Patty Mills just in case. Look, I understand what they are trying to do, but I’m not buying it. Either you’re a tournament team or not, adding games to the schedule is not going to help. Luckily, the Gaels are already in, and won’t lose style points from the committee by showing that they have no shame.

If one other team were to be squeezed out of the tournament if say, Butler were to lose in their conference championship game, it would probably be the Arizona Wildcats or the Michigan Wolverines. Both are .500 in their respective conference, but both have key wins in and out of the conference, which makes them tough to overlook. I will say that if Siena does not win their conference tournament, they will go the way of the Davidson Wildcats. Butler is really the only team with an at-large ticket already punched of the mid-majors.

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Florida is an interesting situation as well. They are two games above .500 in the conference, and just defeated fellow bubble team Kentucky. The SEC is ranked 6 th among conferences. They could be on the outside looking in if a BCS school were to make an unexpected run in their conference tournament, like what Georgia did last year.

In the bracket, you’ll notice bold teams. Those indicate teams who have won their conference and have received an automatic bid, or those that I’m predicting to get the automatic bid based on what has happened thus far.

See you next week for my final bracket on Sunday afternoon as a go for 65/65.

Karl Gustafson
CollegeSports-fans.com Staff Writer & 2009 NCAA Tournament Projections
You can reach Karl at BracketNow@Live.com

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