NCAA Tournament Projections: 'Bracket Now' Commentary for March 1st, 2009

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It feels like March. I’m using words like “must win,” “elimination game,” “solidified,” and “done.” I think we’ve found out a lot this weekend about teams. I find myself playing these little mind games. Take Michigan for example. I woke up Sunday morning and said ok: If Michigan wins today at Wisconsin, then they can afford a loss at Minnesota later in the week, but then they have to win their first round game of the Big Ten Tournament, most likely against Northwestern. But if Michigan loses, they must beat the Gophers, and then probably have to win two games in the Big Ten Tournament. If they lost both of their last 2 regular season games, then they probably need to get to the Big Ten Championship game. It’s a fun game, you should pick out a team and try it.

Anyways, Michigan lost in Madison today and are one of the last teams to get bounced from the tournament. The thing you probably notice when you look through the bracket is the lack of traditional 5-12 matchups or even 6-11 matchups. You guys want to see those Cinderella matchups in the tournament. This year, there are going to be less of those than ever. Why? The mid majors are winning games and moving up in the RPI and gaining credibility with the committee. We’ll see more mid major teams in the seven through ten seeding range this year than in the past. Teams like Davidson, Butler, and Creighton have proven they can play. Even Siena has moved up to an 11 seed. It seems like the 13 seed is the new 12 seed.

It really is that mediocre among the BCS teams barely making it in. Look, Penn State is not very good, but who else is there? Kansas State isn’t your typical tournament looking team. I go back to the conference record. IF you can stay at .500 or better in your league, you are not going to get a bid. This is a measuring stick that I take very seriously.

Enough of the bubble talk, let’s talk about the serious contenders. The one seeds remain solidified and insulated for the most part. The only real chance of any movement would be a potential flip flop with Oklahoma and Louisville, but right now, what has transpired does not warrant that adjustment. Other than the Cards, I’m not a huge fan of the two seeds. I think Memphis is a product of a weak league and get the high seed because not many other teams have shown they can win with the consistency it takes to garner such a high seed. Three seeds to me are usually always upstart teams or maybe teams that have underachieved. Washington and Wake Forest fit that model. The Kansas Jayhawks have been a pleasant surprise to most this year, and Marquette, unfortunately, is only passing through on their way to a four seed.

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Let me give you my Final Four, a few sleeper picks and then some fun upsets. North Carolina will be your National Champion knocking off Pittsburgh in the semi-final game and then Connecticut in the final. The Huskies will have defeated fellow Big East foe Louisville in order to play for the title. That makes it a 75% Big East Final Four in Detroit, MI. I like UCLA to make a nice little run to the Elite 8, and Florida State will upset Oklahoma in the Sweet 16 before bowing out to Louisville. That means Siena will not pull the first round upset that I’m sure so many “smart” people will pick in the office pool. I’m going with Vermont over LSU, Maryland over Gonzaga, and how about North Dakota State over Wake Forest. Am I serious about that one?

Karl Gustafson
CollegeSports-fans.com Staff Writer & 2009 NCAA Tournament Projections
You can reach Karl at BracketNow@Live.com

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