NCAA Tournament Projections: 'Bracket Now' Commentary for February 22nd, 2009

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We are now at the point of the season where every game is so critical. In the past, we’ve seen a game here or a game there determine whether a team was in or out. This, we still see that, but with an added bonus. A team may be teetering on the edge of being out, and the all of a sudden, they win a game, a few other teams lose and not only is said team in, but they are solidly in as say a 9 or 10 seed.

Let’s start in the Big Ten. We have a log jam of sorts. Coming into the weekend, Michigan State, Purdue, and Illinois were the only locks. Ohio State fell at home to Illinois, dropping their conference record to .500. Out, right? Hold on. Minnesota, who was in a bit of a slide, blew out Northwestern at home. Had the Gophers lost to the Wildcats, and I’d say they’d be out, but with the win, they are in solidly as a ten seed. Wisconsin, who was left for dead, went to East Lansing and gave the Spartans all they could handle before bowing out, but they are in as well with little difficulty. Then, Penn State, the forgotten team, they defeated Illinois 38-33 in a battle for the CYO title; they are two games above .500 and are eyeing the tourney. They’re in as twelve seed alongside the Buckeyes. All Michigan had to do was win at Iowa and they’d be in, the Wolverines lost in overtime, and will be a top seed in the NIT.

This was Bracketbuster weekend. Many of the pundits think that the results did nothing to clear up the picture. I beg to differ. We all knew Butler and Davidson would both be in the tournament. But what about St. Mary’s? They beat Utah State, albeit at home, but that’s a nice win, and they proved they could beat a quality team without Patty Mills. Creighton defeated George Mason, and although the Blue Jays lead the MVC and are my choice for the automatic bid, they helped their at-large case as well. Northern Iowa was unable to do the same as they were dominated by Siena in Albany. The Panthers have basically relegated the MVC to a one bid league.

I’ve been waiting for it to happen for awhile now, and I can finally say that Conference USA deserves two bids. UAB is surging in the conference and they have that nice out of conference win against Arizona. Suddenly, that looks like a great win.

Up at the top, it’s lonely; the Pitt Panthers are playing the best basketball right now. UConn is not far behind. North Carolina continues to underachieve, and how can you blame Oklahoma for losing in a hostile environment without the best player in college basketball.

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I’ll give you my 2009 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight this week: Pittsburgh, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Memphis, UConn, UCLA, Oklahoma, Louisville.

Siena will advance a round or two as the Cinderella darling. Also, watch out for UAB and Vermont.

Karl Gustafson
CollegeSports-fans.com Staff Writer & 2009 NCAA Tournament Projections
You can reach Karl at BracketNow@Live.com

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