2010 Wisconsin Badgers Football Preview

2009 Results: 10-3, Won Champs Sports Bowl vs. Miami (Florida)

Head Coach: Brett Bielema (5th year @ UW, 38-14 Overall)

Home Venue: Camp Randall Stadium (80,321), Madison, Wisconsin

Wisconsin doesn’t get a lot of credit from the national media, but the Badgers have quietly become one of the most consistent and successful teams in the country in the last six seasons. Over that time period, Wisconsin has a 57-20 overall record that includes a 3-3 bowl mark and have finished ranked in the top 25 five times! The highlight was a 12-1 record in 2006 that went largely unnoticed against the shine of Ohio State and Michigan’s twin 11-0 starts to set up the ‘Game of the Century’ to decide the league title that year. When the Big Ten expanded this summer, many writers argued that the divisions need to be balanced by evenly splitting the big ‘name’ institutions of Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Nebraska. However, most of those writers seemed to have completely forgotten about the Badgers, who have won more games this decade than Penn State or Michigan! Clearly, this is a team that deserves a lot more attention than they get, even when they are coming off of a great 2009 season.

Last fall, Wisconsin entered the season under the radar coming off of a disappointing 2008 campaign and there was some discontent about Head Coach Brett Bielema’s job performance. However, the Badgers rode a punishing running game to a nine win regular season and capped off the year with a dominating bowl victory over Miami, who was absolutely mauled in the trenches by the Wisconsin linemen. It was the school’s first 10 win campaign since 2006 and their 15th ranked finish was their 2nd best final tally in the last decade.

And the best part for Wisconsin’s legions of fans is that they have the most experienced team in the entire Big Ten coming back this fall! Sixteen starters return from last season’s great finish and Bielema noted at Big Ten Media Days that every single one of his seniors has started a game during their career, making the Badgers one of the most veteran teams in the country. Bielema has placed a major emphasis on ignoring high preseason expectations and that strategy should work well with such a senior-laden team. Wisconsin is a clear contender to win the Big Ten Championship for the first time in a decade, but they’re also a darkhorse National Championship threat. Can the Badgers live up to expectations and earn their first BCS bowl berth since 1999?

OFFENSE

Wisconsin had a breakout offensive performance last fall, scoring 31.8 points per game to lead the conference in scoring by a wide margin. While the team featured their traditionally punishing ground game, the major difference was the emergence of senior quarterback Scott Tolzien. As a junior, he passed for 2,700 yards and 16 TDs against 11 interceptions and the balance he brought to the offense made the Badgers one of only six teams in the country to run and throw for over 200 yards per game in 2009. He should only get better at protecting the football this fall in his 2nd season as the starter.

Tolzien will also have a talented group of wideouts on the receiving end of his passes. Junior Nick Toon (54 catches, 805 yards, 4 TDs in ’09) lived up to the lofty shadow of his legendary father last season and will be the team’s top receiver this fall. On top of that, seniors Isaac Anderson (30 catches, 480 yards, 2 TDs) and Lance Kendricks (29 catches, 356 yards, 3 TDs) should also be solid receiving options. Kendricks is a major breakout candidate because he will be the team’s #1 tight end with Garrett Graham’s graduation and the Badgers have had two different players earn 1st Team All-Big Ten status at the position in the last two years. This is going to be a productive crowd of pass catchers for Tolzien.

But Wisconsin’s bread and butter will be their vicious trio of tailbacks. Led by star junior John Clay (1,517 yards, 18 TDs), the 2009 Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, the Badgers love to run the ball down opponents’ throats. Sophomore Montee Ball (391 yards, 4 TDs) and senior Zach Brown (279 yards, 3 TDs) are excellent substitutes for Clay and it seems highly likely that this will be the best running offense in the Big Ten.

Finally, Wisconsin is well known for their excellent offensive lines and this year will be no exception. All five starters return from last season’s group of road graders and this is easily the most experienced line in the conference. Seniors John Moffitt and Gabe Carimi were 1st Team All-Big Ten selections last season and they will anchor one of the best fronts in the entire country.

This is an absolutely stacked offense. The Badgers are always a tough running team but the presence of Clay headlining their deep backfield takes it up another notch and I would argue that Wisconsin is the premiere power running team in the entire country! On top of that, Tolzien brings a ton of balance to this offense, something that has traditionally been lacking in Madison. With a monstrous O-Line and a strong set of pass catchers, Wisconsin could repeat as the Big Ten’s highest scoring offense in 2010.

DEFENSE

Bielema’s specialty as an assistant coach was on defense and his team acquitted themselves well last fall, finishing 4th in the Big Ten in scoring at 22 points per game. The real strength of the unit was their run defense, which was the toughest in the conference. However, this was a direct result of a veteran defensive line wreaking havoc in the trenches en route to a league-high 37 sacks. Unfortunately, most of those key players have departed, most notably 1 st Team All-Big Ten defensive end O’Brien Schofield. With the rest of the defense returning virtually intact, can the line reload quickly enough to continue their solid defensive performance?

Junior defensive end J.J. Watt (44 tackles, 4.5 sacks) is the only returning starter up front for the Badgers but he is an exceptional athlete that should come into his own as a pass rusher this year. Replacing Schofield will be junior Louis Ngwezu (10 tackles, 3.5 sacks), who impressed in a limited role last fall. Both defensive tackles are also gone, though junior Patrick Butrym (24 tackles, 1 INT) played extensively last season and is looked upon by the coaching staff as a returning starter and leader. While there is some concern about depth behind him, redshirt freshman Jordan Kahout earned the spot next to Butrym coming out of the spring and the coaches are high on his potential. Remember, Wisconsin didn’t have any proven talent at D-Tackle last fall and they ended up with the league’s top run defense, so this more experienced group should be more than adequate against the rush. However, this is going to be a reduced unit because Schofield finished 2nd in the conference in tackles for loss and sacks last fall and it will be difficult for Watt and Ngwezu to match, let alone surpass, his production.

Wisconsin has far fewer question marks at linebacker, where senior Culmer St. Jean (63 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) and sophomore Chris Borland (54 tackles, 5 sacks, 1 INT) are back from last fall. Borland was a 1st Team Freshman All-American as a true frosh and should continue to develop this year while St. Jean is the team’s top returning tackler. The other starter will be sophomore Mike Taylor (46 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT), who was leading the team in tackles last year before going down with a season-ending injury. This will definitely be one of the Big Ten’s best sets of linebackers.

The secondary is also very talented, as three starters are back. Senior safety Jay Valai (51 tackles, 1 INT) was a 2nd Team All-Big choice in ’09 and he is widely considered one of the league’s most fearsome hitters. Pairing with him will be former cornerback Aaron Henry, who has struggled with injuries in the last two years after a strong freshman campaign. Expect this pairing to form a solid back line and if Henry is healthy then they could be special. The starting cornerbacks are also an impressive unit, as junior Devin Smith (55 tackles, 1 sack, 2 INT) and senior Niles Brinkley (38 tackles, 2 INT) have a ton of experience. As Valai was the only one of these players who saw any extensive playing time before last season, I’m confident that the Badgers will perform better against the pass with a year of experience playing together.

Overall, the biggest worry on the entire team is on the defensive line. Wisconsin lost a lot of talent up front from last season and they could be vulnerable against powerful running teams with their inexperience up the middle. However, their linebackers look to be a strong unit and their defensive backs are a solid, if unspectacular group. When it comes down to it, the Badgers should be one of the Big Ten’s better defenses in 2010, but their flaw at the point of attack could be fatal.

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SCHEDULE

The Badgers have an interesting schedule to start the season. They open up in Las Vegas against UNLV before coming home to play San Jose State as a warm up for their biggest non-league game of the season on September 18th. That’s when Arizona State visits Madison for the first time in over 40 years and the Sun Devils’ stiff defense will be a solid test. The non-conference schedule ends with a whimper the next week at home against D-1AA Austin Peay.

But the Big Ten schedule will be where their season truly is decided. Wisconsin gets a break right off of the bat by avoiding Penn State, making their path to a title a little bit easier. They open conference play at Michigan State before coming home to host rival Minnesota to cap off the first half of the year. However, the season will ultimately be decided by their first two games of the second half as they host Ohio State at night before traveling to rival Iowa the next week. After an off week, they conclude with a fairly easy closing stretch, visiting Michigan and Purdue while hosting Indiana and Northwestern. While avoiding Penn State is a gift, the back to back clashes against OSU and Iowa won’t be easy.

OUTLOOK

There are certainly a ton of things to like about this team. Their offense is extremely balanced thanks to an accurate quarterback and a trio of strong runners that include the Big Ten’s defending offensive MVP. Furthermore, they have an enormous line that should create a ton of room for Tolzien to work and this will certainly be a prolific attack.

The defense also looks to be an effective group. While I’m definitely worried that that defensive tackle depth will come back to haunt them, they’re deep at DE and that will help ease the transition. Furthermore, their linebackers are excellent and their defensive backs should have a solid campaign. This is a very good, but not great, defense for Bielema’s team.

So how will the season play out for the Badgers? I’m one of many people who rank them in the top ten to kick off the season and there’s little doubt that this could be a great year. I think their non-conference schedule is challenging enough to be interesting but not challenging enough to produce a loss. Expect a 4-0 start to the season for Wisconsin. Heading into Big Ten play, I think their running game will be the difference in a tough road game against Michigan State and that will be followed up by a victory at home against Minnesota for Homecoming.

But the stretch that will define their season is where I think their National Championship hopes will be derailed. They have a home night game against Ohio State to start the 2nd half of the season and that’s certainly a big advantage. After all, there are few stadiums that rock like Camp Randall at night. But the Buckeyes won’t be intimidated: Remember Terrelle Pryor won at night in Madison two years ago as a true freshman! I think that Ohio State is in great position to take advantage of Wisconsin’s defensive line by running the ball right at them and they’ll emerge from the Mad House in Madison with a hard-earned victory. Having to follow up such a difficult showdown with a road trip to top ten rival Iowa is going to be extremely difficult and I’m afraid that I see the Badgers dropping both of their contests against the league’s other top ten teams.

One more thought on the back to back enormous showdowns: I believe that if Wisconsin beats Ohio State, they’ll win at Iowa as well. This team has shown in past years under Bielema that they have trouble shaking off tough losses (see: Illinois in 2007, Michigan in 2008 & Ohio State in 2009) and if they can take control of their destiny against the favored Buckeyes, then they could springboard to an undefeated season. I think that the Badgers are definitely a major factor in the conference chase and the national picture but their performance in that two week span in October will determine their season. The good news is that they have an off week to regroup after those two brutal showdowns and that should allow for a clean finish down the stretch to end up with a 10-2 record. That should send them to the Capital One or Gator Bowl to face a SEC opponent. With a loaded team, the Wisconsin Badgers are my choice to finish 3rd in the Big Ten Conference in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 10-2 (6-2 Big Ten)