2010 Virginia Cavaliers Football Preview

2009 Results: 3-9, No Bowl

Head Coach: Mike London (1st Year @ UVA, 24-5 Overall)

Home Venue: Scott Stadium (61,500), Charlottesville, Virginia

Last season was the culmination of a slow burning decline under former coach Al Groh. For the majority of his tenure, the Cavaliers were a middle of the pack team in the ACC, but the last four seasons only resulted in one postseason trip. Public opinion was heavily against Groh after he put up a shockingly bad 1-8 record against archrival Virginia Tech and couldn’t keep his best assistants in Charlottesville. Last season’s 3-9 debacle was the final straw and he was fired.

Replacing Groh will be one of those former assistants, Mike London, who lead Richmond to a D-1AA National Championship in 2008. London should be a major breath of fresh air for the Cavs and their reputation around the state, especially in the fertile recruiting grounds of Virginia Beach. While London has already demonstrated good early recruiting returns, the question is how long it will take him to restore the Cavs to respectability on the field.

OFFENSE

Last season was a miserable offensive campaign for UVA and a change in philosophy might be just the ticket for a group that averaged below 20 points per contest in three of the past four seasons. With new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor’s NFL background, the Cavaliers are transitioning to a pro style offense this season after ineffectively running the shotgun spread under Groh. It is also a pretty good time to make a switch as very little production returns at the skill positions from 2009.

There is virtually no experience at quarterback for the new staff to work with, as senior Marc Verica is the only QB that has attempted a single pass in college. He was the starter in 2008 and ended up throwing twice as many interceptions as touchdowns, so his ability to protect the football is a major concern. His spring game showing in April didn’t help either, as he threw two picks. He holds a monopoly in experience at quarterback and his leadership will be valuable during the first season under London, but I think he is more of a starter by default and my expectations are quite low.

It doesn’t help that the receivers are underwhelming, either. Junior Kris Burd (31 catches, 413 yards, 1 TD in ’09) is the top returning pass catcher on the team and he should pair with sophomore Tim Smith (15 catches, 204 yards, 2 TDs) in the starting lineup. While these two were hamstrung by a ineffective quarterbacking last year, I’m not sure how confident I am that they can improve upon their numbers moving away from a pass-happy attack. However, keep an eye on senior tight end Joe Torchia (15 catches, 150 yards, 2 TDs), whose role should expand in the new pro style system.

They are even more inexperienced at tailback as no returnee scored a touchdown last year! The good news is that senior Keith Payne, who played extensively in 2008, returns after leaving the team right before the season began last fall. He’s the best option from an unimpressive group of runners.

However, the UVA running game was so weak last fall that I wouldn’t be surprised if they improved upon that pithy production this year. A big reason for that belief is the return of a decent group of O-Linemen. Three upperclassmen starters are back to learn the new system. After giving up a league-high 41 sacks last year while attempting to mimic Missouri’s wide spacing between linemen, I think that they should be much better this fall in a more traditional set. The other big boost will come from freshman Morgan Moses, who spent last season at a prep school before selecting the Cavs over schools like LSU and Ohio State. I think that this group will be much better this season with the new system.

Unfortunately, even with the improved line, this still looks like a weak offense. QB Verica is going to turn the ball over a lot this fall, even with better protection, and his receivers are underwhelming. Furthermore, this is one of the least experienced sets of tailbacks in the country and I don’t have a lot of confidence in their ability to consistently move the chains on the ground. While I do think that the Cavaliers could be a better unit than they were in 2009, this is probably going to be one of the ACC’s worst offenses.

DEFENSE

The Cavaliers are also changing schemes on the defensive side of the football, ditching the 3-4 set that is currently en vogue in college football in favor of a more traditional 4-3. Their new defensive coordinator is Jim Reid, who has a wealth of experience in college football after serving as a head coach for seventeen years in D-1AA. Can the change in scheme help fix a defense that finished in the bottom half of the league last season?

The earliest noticeable change was the spring performance of junior DE Cam Johnson (40 tackles, 2 sacks), who moved down from linebacker. One of three junior starters on the new D-Line, I think he is a candidate for a breakout season because he was the defense’s most consistent playmaker in the spring. His two classmates on the line both play defensive tackle and I think that Matt Conrath (45 tackles, 2 sacks) and Nick Jenkins (41 tackles, 1 sack) should perform well inside. This should be a much improved D-Line.

The linebackers should also benefit from the change in scheme, though sophomore Steve Greer (92 tackles, 1 sack) would be great in any system after leading the team in tackles and being named a 2nd Team Freshman All-American last year. While I don’t have a lot of confidence in the extremely inexperienced players surrounding him, Greer will still make this level of the defense respectable this season.

The best portion of the Cavalier defense is the secondary, which has been adequate despite the team’s struggles in each of the last two seasons. Senior corner Ras-I Dowling (62 tackles) was a 2nd Team All-ACC selection last year and he should be one of the ACC’s better cornerbacks. Junior safeties Rodney McLeod (58 tackles, 1 sack, 3 INT) and Corey Mostley (47 tackles, 1 INT) should also form a solid tandem and I think that this could end up being one of the league’s more formidable pass defenses.

Overall, I think that Virginia will see improvement quicker on defense this fall. The shift back to a 4-3 scheme might be the catalyst for a much more productive unit, especially with a better pass rush from the front four. I also like the quality of their secondary, which has a good tandem of safeties and one of the league’s better corners. I think that the Cavalier defense will have more teeth this year and I don’t think they’ll finish in the bottom 3 rd of the league like 2009.

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SCHEDULE

In some aspects, it seems like this year was scheduled for a rebuilding team. The non-conference portion features two D-1AA opponents, along with lowly Eastern Michigan! This seems like a grab for a winning non-league schedule (a daunting visit to Southern California is the 4 th game) and London couldn’t have hoped for an easier opening, even though they will need seven wins to become bowl eligible with multiple D-1AA teams scheduled.

In ACC play, the draw from the Atlantic Division is pretty tough. Florida State and Maryland come to Charlottesville while Virginia also travels to Boston College. In Coastal play, they have two tough trips to the Techs and Duke while hosting UNC and Miami. While this schedule has seven home games and three extremely winnable non-conference games, it will still be a tough slate.

OUTLOOK

With new systems on each side of the football and a new coaching staff, I think that Virginia is in for a rebuilding campaign. Their defense is going to be decent, especially against the pass, but I do worry that the inexperienced linebackers will struggle at times, especially since their one returning starter is an underclassman himself.

But the worries about the defense pale in comparison to the mess on the offensive side of the football. Their quarterback had a turnover-ridden campaign two years ago and in many ways he is the starter by default with his edge in playing time. There is a dearth of experience at both wide receiver and tailback and even their experienced O-Line still has to rely on a true freshman at tackle.

In the end, I think that this will be a tough season for London to make a push for postseason eligibility. He has a guaranteed loss at USC and a tough draw from the Atlantic Division will further complicate matters. I really think that he was a great hire and will build UVA back into a contender, but it just won’t be this fall. With all of the changes and a young team that doesn’t have a ton of talent, I’m afraid that the Virginia Cavaliers are my pick to finish last in the ACC Coastal Division.

PREDICTED RESULT: 4-8 (1-7 ACC)