2010 Vanderbilt Commodores Football Preview

2009 Results: 2-10, No Bowl

Head Coach: Robbie Caldwell (1st year @ Vandy, No Previous Coaching Experience)

Home Venue: Vanderbilt Stadium (39,773) Nashville, Tennessee

2009 was a disappointing season in many ways for Vanderbilt. Coming off of the school’s first bowl berth since 1982, fans were hopeful that perhaps the Commodores’ days at the permanent bottom of the SEC East barrel were over. However, the reality of being the smallest school with the fewest resources in the Southeastern Conference reared its ugly head and Vandy dropped back to a miserable ten loss campaign.

Things got worse in the offseason. First, the top incoming recruit in the Class of 2010, tailback Rajean Bennett, was tragically murdered before he arrived on campus, casting a pall over the season before it began. Things continued on the downhill path when longtime Head Coach Bobby Johnson, who was widely respected for removing the Commodores from pushover status, quit in late July after claiming he was simply burnt out. While interim coach Robbie Caldwell won people over at SEC Media Days with his charm and enthusiasm, the fact of the matter is that Vanderbilt has dealt with multiple major jolts to their system this summer. After all, no coaching change took place later in the offseason! Can Caldwell shock the world this fall and lead the Commodores to a decent 2010 showing?

OFFENSE

Last season was a miserable year for Vandy on offense. The ‘Dores scored a league low 16 points per contest, lowlighted by an unfathomable 8.9 points per game in SEC play! In fact, their best showing in league games was a pithy 16 point outing at Tennessee! That’s the definition of ineptitude and Vanderbilt has to improve this year to avoid a historically bad season.

One major reason for their complete lack of success on the scoreboard was an SEC-worst passing game that averaged under 150 yards per game through the air. Junior Larry Smith (1,126 yards, 4 TDs, 7 INT in ’09) started nine games last fall but he will have to fend off multiple challengers, including Jordan Rodgers, whose older brother is the starting quarterback for the Green Bay Packers. With a choice between inexperience and incompetence, it looks like it will be a long season under center.

The returning receivers also fail to inspire confidence. While sophomore John Cole (36 catches, 382 yards, 1 TD) impressed by gutting through a hand injury for most of the season to lead the team in catches as a freshman, he’s the only player who really showed a lot of ability last season. Udom Udoh (20 catches, 267 yards, 1 TD) and tight end Brandon Barden (29 catches, 357 yards, 1 TD), both juniors, are the other top receiving options and neither is going to be gamebreaker. While this group will definitely have a lot more experience than the completely green group that took over last year, they’re still on the lower end of the talent rung.

The running game was actually fairly decent last year, as sophomore Warren Norman (783 yards, 3 TDs) was named the SEC Freshman of the Year. Along with classmate Zac Stacy (478 yards, 3 TDs), Norman should power a decent rushing attack this fall as they have the makings of a good tandem in the future.

There’s just one major drawback to the rosy picture of a strong running game: The offensive line. Junior guard Kyle Fischer is the only returning starter and this is one of the least experienced units of blockers in the entire country! While sophomore tackle Ryan Seymour saw the field extensively last season and was named to the SEC All-Freshman team, he will be one of up to three underclassmen starters this fall. When a school like Vanderbilt (that doesn’t bring in elite O-Line recruits) is expected to replace four multi-year starters with freshmen and sophomores, the results are generally disastrous. This will probably be the worst line in the SEC this season.

Overall, I don’t have a lot of hope for Vanderbilt’s offense in 2010. While I could review the relative merits of their skill position players, the simple fact is that their weak O-Line is going to get eaten alive by defenses in the SEC and that will dog them all year long. While I like their young pair of tailbacks, I don’t know how they’ll have an effective passing game when their quarterback will be running for his life on every play. This looks to be hands down the worst offense in the SEC and I wouldn’t be surprised if they failed to average ten points per game in conference play for the 2nd consecutive year.

DEFENSE

Where Johnson had the most success during his tenure was on defense, where the talent level was upped considerably during under his watch. The best season was 2008, when the defense held opponents to 19 points per game and was the foundation for their seven win season. While the Commodores weren’t bad last year, they did slip back into the bottom 3rd of the SEC in scoring with a veteran unit. The luxury of experience isn’t there this fall as there will be a lot of new faces: Can Vanderbilt continue its defensive prowess while breaking in seven new starters?

The single biggest improvement under Johnson was the change in the caliber of athlete on the defensive line. Where the ‘Dores were once seen as a pushover, they’re now widely regarded as a tenacious and dogged group. No player better exemplified that attitude than senior defensive tackle Adam Smotherman (31 tackles), whose big frame and persistence made him a tough matchup inside. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in spring practice and his status for the fall is up in the air. That leaves junior DE Tim Fugger (21 tackles, 1 sack) as the only returning starter on the D-Line. However, junior DT T.J. Greenstone (38 tackles, 2 sacks) had a strong 2009 campaign and senior DE Theron Kadri (24 tackles, 3 sacks) showed some talent at getting after the quarterback, so this unit won’t be as thin as the number of returning starters would indicate. Expect a similar showing to last season, especially if Smotherman returns ahead of schedule.

At linebacker, junior Chris Marve (121 tackles, 1 sack) was the team’s top tackler last fall en route to a 2nd Team All-SEC campaign. It was the 2 nd straight year that he rang up 100+ tackles and he should be in line for another fine season. Senior John Stokes (44 tackles) should also have a strong year, as he was a full time starter in 2008. Expect a solid showing from the ‘backers in 2010.

Vandy actually had a really strong year against the pass last fall, so returning two starters in the secondary is a positive sign for success. While they will miss cornerback Myron Lewis, a 3rd round pick in April’s draft, junior Casey Hayward (58 tackles, 2 INT) was a solid starter opposite him last fall and classmate Jamie Graham (27 tackles, 2 INT) showed good ball skills as the nickel back. Meanwhile, junior safety Sean Richardson (84 tackles) had a breakout campaign last year as he finished 3 rd on the team in tackles. Overall, this should be a solid but unspectacular group of defensive backs.

There are certainly a lot of bright spots for the Commodore defense. Their linebackers should be a stout group, led by the top returning tackler in the entire conference. While they’ll be behind a relatively inexperienced D-Line, there should be plenty of talent in place to make plays up front. Finally, the secondary should be a solid unit, even with the graduation of Lewis. I expect Vanderbilt to continue their good defensive play this season. However, when you compare this unit to the rest of the SEC, I’m afraid that they fall near the bottom of the pack in both experience and talent.

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SCHEDULE

Playing in the SEC East is never easy, especially when you’re traditionally at the bottom of the pack like Vanderbilt. Unlike division foes Georgia or Florida, Vandy has to face teams with superior talent virtually every week and that can really wear a team down. This season’s schedule is particularly difficult, as the Commodores draw a home game against LSU and visits to Arkansas and Ole Miss from the West while their SEC East draw is undermined by a home game against rival Tennessee, who routinely brings more fans to Vanderbilt Stadium than the home team.

If playing an SEC schedule weren’t tough enough for the conference minnows, their non-conference portion makes this a downright harrowing season. After opening the year at home against Northwestern (who is expected to be a solid, middle of the pack team in the Big Ten), the Commodores travel to Big East contender Connecticut before closing out the year at home against Wake Forest. The only easy game on the schedule is Eastern Michigan, who could be called the Vanderbilt of the MAC. Needless to say, this is one of the toughest schedules in the entire country.

OUTLOOK

This will certainly be a trying season for the Commodores. After all of the offseason turmoil, especially Johnson’s sudden departure, things look stacked against them before the season even begins! And let’s be honest: Vanderbilt doesn’t need any extra difficulties. Unfortunately, they’re going to be challenged severely this season with their commendably thorny schedule, which includes eleven BCS Conference opponents, the most of any team in the country!

On top of the coaching concerns and schedule worries, there are also some serious personnel issues. They have to rebound from a terrible offensive year while building a new O-Line that could feature mostly freshman and sophomores and their quarterbacking situation looks dire. Even with a good young set of tailbacks, it looks 2010 will be a tough year on the scoreboard.

In the end, Vanderbilt’s solid defense won’t be nearly enough to overcome their offensive woes and a brutal schedule that would prevent a lot of significantly more talented teams from having winning seasons. I’m afraid that a bowl berth is extremely unlikely and I will be surprised if they surpass last season’s meager win total. The Vanderbilt Commodores are my choice to finish last in the SEC East Division.

PREDICTED RESULT: 1-11 (0-8 SEC)