2010 USC Trojans Football Preview

2009 Results: 9-4, Won Emerald Bowl vs. Boston College

Head Coach: Lane Kiffin (1st year @ USC, 7-6 Overall)

Home Venue: L.A. Coliseum (93,607)

USC’s long run of Pac Ten Championships came to an end in 2009, as the Trojans fell to a disappointing 5-4 record in conference play. However, it was a testament to the strength of the program that a ‘rebuilding’ year still resulted in a 9-4 overall record. After their victory over BC in December, there was widespread confidence that the Trojans would jump right back into the championship picture this fall.

That was before Pete Carroll decided he was going to return to the National Football League after a nine year tenure that included a BCS Championship, an AP National Championship, seven Pac Ten titles and a 95-19 career record. Needless to say, he was one of the premiere coaches in all of college football and will be missed. In his place, USC hired former assistant Lane Kiffin, who is as controversial as he is unproven as a head coach, having only coached one season in college as the head man.

To pile onto the Trojans after the shock coaching change, the NCAA’s long-awaited decision in the Reggie Bush agent scandal finally came down and it was a doozy: USC was hit with a two year postseason ban and the loss of 30 scholarships over the next three seasons. That means that this year’s team has to adopt an ‘us against the world’ mentality because they won’t have the opportunity to play in the postseason, even if they go undefeated. Can the Trojans overcome an offseason of adversity to win the Pac Ten this season?

OFFENSE

The USC offense took a big step backwards last season with a true freshman under center. Now a sophomore, Matt Barkley (2,735 yards, 15 TDs, 14 INT in ‘09) should flourish under Kiffin’s tutelage. Remember, Kiffin turned Tennessee QB Jonathan Crompton into an NFL draft pick when most fans had given up on his entirely, so Barkley should definitely cut down on turnovers this season.

He’ll have an athletic group of wideouts to throw the ball to this fall, led by senior Ronald Johnson (34 catches, 378 yards, 3 TDs), who missed half of the ’09 campaign with a broken collarbone. While Johnson is the only proven receiver on the team, there is a lot of young talent that was brought in by Carroll’s elite recruiting and this should turn out to be a productive group.

At tailback, senior Allen Bradford (668 yards, 8 TDs) is a bruising runner who will be the #1 ball carrier this season. Along with 4th year starting fullback Stanley Havili (138 rush yards, 22 catches, 298 receiving yards, 2 TDs), Bradford will provide good veteran leadership for the Trojans. Another player to watch is true freshman Dillon Baxter, who could be the lightning to Bradford’s thunder this season. This will be a top-notch group of running backs.

The biggest concern that I have about this offense is up front, where USC endured an injury-marred spring. Normally the Trojans are well known for their depth, but this group lost #1 overall recruit Seantrel Henderson when the sanctions were handed down and at one point in the spring only had six healthy linemen! While senior center Kris O’Dowd is an excellent player, he missed half of last year with a knee issue and USC simply cannot afford to play without him this fall. This will be a good line if everyone is healthy but there is a notable lack of depth.

Southern Cal had their worst offensive season of the Carroll era last fall and they still managed to score 26 points per game with a true freshman at quarterback! While USC will be young at many key positions, the only real worry is the O-Line, which can’t afford the injury issues that cropped up in ’09. Needless to say, there is a lot of room for the offense to grow as Barkley develops, so this should be a much improved unit in his second season.

DEFENSE

Many people considered 2009 a ‘down’ year for USC’s defense. In a way, they were correct as the Trojans gave up 19.8 points per game, their worst showing since 2004. However, USC still finished with the Pac Ten’s #1 scoring defense last season! While many key players from that group have departed, the Trojans are still loaded with raw talent. Can vaunted defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin mold another excellent defense this fall?

Upon inspection of the D-Line, I would venture that the answer will be a resounding ‘yes’. Junior defensive tackle Jurrell Casey (59 tackles, 4.5 sacks) is an excellent run stopper while sophomore defensive ends Nick Perry (24 tackles, 8 sacks, 1st Team Freshman All-American) and Wes Horton (23 tackles, 1 sack) are two of the most talented young players in the entire conference at any position. With excellent depth behind those three, it seems like nothing has changed up front for USC. This will probably be one of the best lines in America.

At linebacker, USC has three great starters returning. Seniors Malcolm Smith (72 tackles, 1 INT) and Michael Morgan (50 tackles) will pair with elite junior Chris Galippo (70 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 INT) for the 2nd straight year. Considering how successful this group was last fall despite all three players breaking into the starting unit for the first time, the ceiling is very high in 2010. Expect an outstanding season against the run from this elite unit.

After such positive news from the front seven, I’m afraid the outlook for the defensive backs will be a bit of a comedown for USC fans. All four starters from last season are gone, two of whom were drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. To make matters tougher for this year’s group, all four of those departures started at least 12 games last fall! However, this is USC: They’ve recruited elite players for a decade under Carroll and there is a ton of raw talent. The most interesting player to watch will be senior Shareece Wright, who was academically ineligible until the bowl game last year. He was projected to start after playing extensively in 2006 and 2007 and will be counted on as the defense’s key player this fall. He’ll pair with junior T.J. Bryant (22 tackles) at corner and they should be a solid group. The safety position is much more concerning, as the Trojans could start a bunch of underclassmen, though every potential player on the field for this group was a top-tier recruit. USC might struggle to get acclimated in the defensive backfield this season and that could result in some big plays for opponents.

But concerns about the secondary shouldn’t detract from the big picture, which clearly shows that USC will have a tremendous defense in 2010. The front seven are the best group in the entire conference and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Trojans end up with the league’s best run defense. Furthermore, they’ll have an excellent pass rush and that should help cover the inexperienced secondary in the early going. Expect USC to have one of the best defenses in the Pac Ten this fall.

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SCHEDULE

The Trojans have a great schedule for a team that is barred from playing in the postseason, seeing how they’re already playing 13 games. Thanks to a season-opening visit to Hawaii that will act like a de facto bowl game, SC can take advantage of the NCAA’s rule that allows an extra home game to account for the expense of flying out to the islands. The good news is that the Trojans aren’t taking the easy way out with a 13th game as they host ancestral rival Notre Dame and ACC foe Virginia while traveling to play in Minnesota’s pretty new stadium. Few teams play three BCS Conference opponents during the non-league portion, so USC deserves a lot of credit for their boldness.

The Pac Ten is going to be difficult for the Trojans since they have five road games this fall. In a league full of legitimate contenders, visits to Stanford, Arizona, Oregon State and archrival UCLA will be very difficult outings. The good news is that SC has a favorably placed off week in mid-October that will allow them to get a rest at the midpoint before hosting defending champion Oregon. Overall, this is going to be one of the toughest schedules in the country because USC is the only team in all of college football that plays 12 BCS Conference foes (Notre Dame included) and they have an incredible seven road games, unheard of for such a big name school.

OUTLOOK

While USC is definitely disappointed about the major sanctions that were levied upon the program, the impact won’t really be felt this season. Most of the transfers that took place after the NCAA dropped the hammer were backups and the only notable loss was Henderson bolting for Miami. However, Southern California will only have about 70 players on scholarship this fall, so their depth will be tested.

But that is more of a concern for the coming seasons. The 2010 edition of Trojans will have an improved quarterback, a good trio of runners in the backfield and an athletic set of wideouts. Expect Ronald Johnson to firmly establish himself as a high NFL draft pick this fall. While I’m worried about their depth up front, USC should challenge to lead the conference in scoring this fall.

Furthermore, the defense should be vicious against the run. The Trojans have a great D-Line and the Pac Ten’s best set of linebackers, so teams will struggle on the ground. While their defensive backs could cost them a few big plays, they will grow into a good group by season’s end. Expect USC to have one of the league’s top defenses this year.

So with such talent on both sides of the football, the Trojans are clearly contenders to win the Pac Ten. While they’re certainly a favorite thanks to their track record and excellent talent, they also face a really tough schedule that features four difficult road tests. In the end, I think that the Trojans will lose a few road games (they’ve lost their last two at Oregon State and Arizona beat them in the Coliseum last year) and that will prevent them from winning the conference in Lane Kiffin’s first season. The Southern California Trojans are my choice to finish 2nd in the Pac Ten Conference in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 10-3 (6-3 Pac Ten)