2010 Tulane Green Wave Football Preview

2009 Results: 3-9, No Bowl

Head Coach: Bob Toledo (4th year, 9-27 @ Tulane, 72-89 Overall)

Home Venue: Superdome (69,703) New Orleans, Louisiana

2009 was another middling season for Tulane, as Bob Toledo failed to field a winning team for the 3rd consecutive season. However, I don’t fully blame Toledo for the recent mediocrity of the Tulane football program: This school has not really recovered from Hurricane Katrina devastating New Orleans in 2005. In the five years leading up to the hurricane, Tulane was bowl eligible twice, only won less than five games once, and was generally a middle of the pack team. In the five years since, Tulane has not won more than four games in a single season and has struggled in recruiting as the stigma of hurricane destruction has not yet worn off.

It also doesn’t help that Toledo has the reputation as an older, more traditional coach. If Tulane had a more dynamic young recruiter running things, then perhaps the talent would return to the Crescent City. That said, I think Toledo is on the hot seat this year and if Tulane doesn’t have an improved season, then he could find himself out of a job. Can Tulane rally and make a push for bowl eligibility?

OFFENSE

One of the real failings of Toledo’s tenure has been the regression of the offense, which has only averaged 16 points per game in each of the last two seasons. While they’ve tried to transition to a scheme that emphasizes the pass since NFL tailback Matt Forte left in 2007, the only balance that has been found in the offense is that the Wave has been mediocre both on the ground and in the air.

There is reason for hope this season, as sophomore Ryan Griffin (1,382 yards, 9 TDs, 6 INT) performed well in six starts last year. While senior wideout Casey Robottom (50 catches, 584 yards, 2 TDs) is the only player returning with more than 10 catches, I expect Griffin to continue improving this fall. One thing to keep a close eye on: Robottom was the beneficiary of favorable coverage in 2009 as departed senior Jeremy Williams (84 catches, 1,113 yards, 7 TDs) had a huge season and if no one else steps up at wideout, then this could be a long year for Robottom facing double teams.

However, I’m going to stay optimistic and point out that Griffin should have a lot of time to throw behind a veteran O-Line that returns four starters. While this isn’t one of the league’s best units, it might be the most experienced one that Toledo has had, so that gives some hope for improvement. On the other hand, the tailback position is a gigantic question mark as last season’s attack was pretty anemic: Not one player returns that accounted for more than 100 yards on the ground!

Overall, for every positive on this unit, there is a blatant negative. Griffin looks like he could be on the verge of a strong season, but he only has one proven receiver. The O-Line is experienced and improved, but tailback is a gigantic question mark. In the end, the loss of Williams’ playmaking abilities and the dearth of talent at running back leads me to believe that Griffin is going to have trouble finding open receivers and won’t have the benefit of a solid running game to fall back on. That means another long season for Tulane offensively.

DEFENSE

As bleak as the picture that I just painted of the offense, I’m afraid to say that it looks worse on the defensive side of the coin. Tulane hasn’t allowed less than 31 points per game since Katrina and they only return four starters from a unit that gave up the second most points in the entire conference in 2009.

Another reason for my complete lack of excitement for the Tulane defense is the fact that they were miserable against both the run (205 yards per game, 5 yards per carry) and the pass (218 yards per game, 67.5% completion). The running game will be a major cause for concern once more in 2010 since there is only one returning starter on the front seven! While there will be people who say that a complete overhaul from a disappointing unit is a good thing, I’m not one of them because there will be a lot of errors as the new group learns.

The secondary looks a little bit better with three returning starters. However, one of those is sophomore Shakiel Smith (71 tackles in ’09), who moves from linebacker to safety to bolster the back end. The real loss is Tulane’s only C-USA All Star, safety Chinoso Echebelem, who was the team’s leading tackler.

The simple reality to this unit is that they’re not very talented or experienced. Furthermore, the schedule throws them to the wolves early and that will make building a confident defense that much more difficult. I really don’t have a lot of hope for Tulane to improve this season and it seems quite likely that they’ll extend their streak of allowing 30 or more points per game in 2010. This is probably going to be the worst defense in the conference.

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SCHEDULE

As I mentioned earlier, Tulane has a pretty tough opening schedule. After opening with a D-1AA opponent, they host Mississippi of the SEC before traveling to Houston and Rutgers to finish the first 3rd of the year. To make matters worse, they also draw Southern Miss and Central Florida out of the East Division in conference play, making things that much more difficult. Finally, the West is clearly the tougher of the two divisions this season and that means that Tulane is going to be really hard pressed with their divisional rivals. The only bright side to this schedule is the presence of seven home games, including four straight at the end of the year. Unfortunately, all of their home league opponents are going to be tough games and their best shot at winning a C-USA game will probably come on the road. Despite the home-heavy slate, this is not an easy schedule. Then again, when you’re as bad as Tulane, no schedule is going to be easy.

OUTLOOK

I actually felt like I was being heavy-handed the first time I wrote this preview and double-checked my research to see if I could find some more wins to give to this admittedly poor team. However, I can’t see a single game on their schedule beyond the season opener against D-1AA SE Louisiana (didn’t Bobby Boucher lead them to the Bourbon Bowl?) that Tulane has more than an outside shot of winning. The offense doesn’t have any dynamic playmakers or anyone with any experience running the ball. The defense has more holes than Swiss cheese and their coach hasn’t done anything in his three years to lead me to believe that he has this team primed for a turnaround. I’m afraid that the Bob Toledo era in New Orleans is at risk of coming to an end and Tulane might be one of the worst teams in the country this fall. The Green Wave is my pick to finish last in the C-USA West Division.

PREDICTED RESULT: 1-11 (0-8 CONFERENCE USA)