2010 Toledo Rockets Football Preview

2009 Results: 5-7, No Bowl

Head Coach: Tim Beckman (2nd year @ Toledo, 5-7 Overall)

Home Venue: Glass Bowl (26,248), Toledo, Ohio

The first season of Tim Beckman’s tenure in charge of the Rockets produced a decidedly mixed result. The Rockets took a big step ahead on offense and ended up scoring the 2nd most points in the league. This powerful attack was the driving force behind a historical upset of Colorado at home in the early going. However, the defense turned out to be a nightmare, allowing just under 38 points per contest, the 2nd worst result in the league. Can the Rockets find some balance between their units in 2010 and contend in the MAC West?

OFFENSE

The Toledo offense was definitely a success in 2009, but nagging injuries to starting QB Aaron Opelt undermined the continuity of the offense, preventing it from being truly dangerous. However, those injury issues did have a silver lining: sophomore Austin Dantin (962 yards, 66.4 completion %, 4 TDs, 4 INT last year) got some valuable playing time by starting three games as a true freshman and will be significantly better prepared to be the full time starter this fall. While I’m sure he’ll make some mistakes like all young QBs do, he has a great chance to immediately be one of the league’s better passers.

It helps that he has a strong set of receivers returning, led by sophomore Eric Page (82 catches, 1159 yards, 7 TDs), who was a 1st Team All-MAC selection and was the national leader in catches and yardage for the freshman class. Expect another big year from the young star, who should continue to give big play junior Kenny Stafford (15.9 yards per catch in ’09) single coverage to get deep. Junior tight end Danny Noble (26 catches, 257 yards, 1 TD) is also a good safety valve and rounds out a strong group of receivers.

On top of that, Toledo should have an excellent offensive line. Four starters return, all of whom will be upperclassmen this season, and they were the core of a unit that allowed only 18 sacks in 2009. Expect Dantin to have plenty of time to throw this fall. Furthermore, that strong O-Line will also open plenty of holes for the Rocket rushing attack. Junior Morgan Williams (444 yards, 2 TDs) had a disappointing 2009 campaign after rushing for over 1,000 yards as a freshman in ’08 but I think he is highly likely to regain his form this fall as he will be the featured runner.

Overall, there is a ton to like about the Toledo offense. While the skill position players are going to be young, they are very talented and Williams and Page have already proven that they’re capable of producing at an elite level. On top of that, their new QB isn’t just being thrown into the fire after seeing the field extensively last fall. With a great O-Line in place to protect him, I think that the Rocket attack has all of the pieces to be one of the MAC’s best this season.

DEFENSE

Now that we’ve discussed in glowing terms the quality of the Toledo offense, I’m afraid we have to move to the mess that is the Toledo defense. While a minus ten turnover margin didn’t help their results last season, there is no question that this group has a long way to go this fall.

Up front, the Rockets are underwhelming. Seniors Doug Westbrook (24 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 INT) and Alex Johnson (22 tackles, 3 sacks) are nice players, but they’re not the kind of guys you want to anchor you defense around. Furthermore, there isn’t great depth on this line, leaving me very concerned about Toledo’s vulnerability in the run game if injuries rear their head this season.

On the surface, the linebackers look much better with senior Archie Donald (116 tackles) as the centerpiece. However, the real star of this group was departed senior Barry Church, who was selected to the all-league team in all four of his years at Toledo and his multidimensional talents will be sorely missed. Even with Donald back, this is a diminished set of ‘backers.

On the plus side, the bad news ends in the secondary. Three starters return this season and all three are sophomores! Cornerbacks Daxton Swanson (31 tackles) and Byron Best (20 tackles) are definitely going to be much improved this fall and safety Jermaine Robinson (58 tackles) was 2nd among returning players in tackles last fall. On top of that, senior Desmond Morrow, who started eight games in 2008, returns after missing all of last season due to injury. That should be a big boost for a young but talented group of defensive backs.

Overall, the Rockets are going to be susceptible against the run. I think they’ll miss Church’s playmaking skills and their D-Line simply isn’t very big. That means their one proven tackler (Donald) will have to beat a lot more blocks to make plays this fall and that’s never a recipe for success. The good news is that their young secondary looks primed for improvement and that could result in a better turnover margin. While Toledo certainly isn’t one of the league’s best defenses, they should at least be respectable this fall.

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SCHEDULE

I have to give the Rockets a lot of credit: They’re playing a manly schedule. Their non-league slate includes home dates against potent Arizona and 2009 surprise Wyoming while traveling to Purdue and Boise State! As all four of those teams could be bowl eligible in tougher leagues this season, Toledo will be very fortunate if they can earn two wins from that group.

In MAC play, the Rockets have a tough conference draw, facing off against contenders Kent State and Ohio from the East, though they do get a home game against lowly Bowling Green. Overall, this schedule features six home contests and should be very challenging for the Rockets.

OUTLOOK

There is a clear formula for success with this team and it will be to score a ton of points and hope that their defense can make it stand. Toledo has a great collection of talented young skill position players on offense and their stout O-Line should allow all of that skill to show this season. While the defense will certainly be susceptible to the run, the Rockets should have a good secondary and an improved front seven. With all of that included, I find it unlikely that Toledo will have to overcome a terrible turnover margin like they did in 2009. Even with a tough schedule, I think that the Rockets will defeat division rival Northern Illinois at home to earn the tiebreaker over the Huskies in the MAC West and win the school’s first division title since 2004.

However, I’m afraid that I’m not going to pick the Rockets to win the conference title. Predicted opponent Temple will have home field advantage for the contest and the Owls are precisely the type of team that Toledo will have major trouble with. I expect Temple to run the ball and control the clock, keeping the powerful Rocket attack sidelined. As the Owls have a great defense, I think that Toledo’s formula of outscoring opponents will fail to come through and that will cost them the conference title. However, I fully expect the Rockets to return to bowl action for the first time since 2005 this season.

PREDICTED RESULT: 7-5 (6-2 MAC)