2010 Texas Tech Red Raiders Football Preview

2009 Results: 9-4, Won Alamo Bowl vs. Michigan State

Head Coach: Tommy Tuberville (1st year @ Tech, 110-60 Overall)

Home Venue: Jones AT&T Stadium (53,882), Lubbock, Texas

Has there ever been a stranger coaching change than the one that went down at Texas Tech last season? Weeks after ending the regular season with the school’s 10th consecutive bowl berth, Mike Leach was fired after being accused of improperly treating injured wide receiver Adam James, who claimed to have a concussion. However, it quickly became obvious that Leach’s firing had a lot more to do with an internal power struggle than it did his mistreatment of players. Apparently, the administration decided that Leach was too expensive after acrimonious contract negations in 2008 and brought in James’ disgruntled but influential father, Craig, to help facilitate the coaching change. This of course led to the inevitable conflict of interest from ESPN, as James aired some of his grievances while broadcasting during bowl season, and continued to justify my belief that the Worldwide Leader is becoming more interested in soap opera than sport. While E!SPiN loves drama, the coverage of this situation was well over the top and the entire situation remains tied up in the courts.

But Texas Tech did make one very wise decision moving forward: They hired longtime Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville, who was extremely successful for a decade in charge of the Tigers and frankly should still be their coach. Tuberville will bring a badly-needed focus to their defense this season and should be very successful recruiting the fertile fields of Texas. But in the short term, can he adjust to the personnel in place on offense (Tech’s high-flying style contrasts with his favored run-first attack) and continue Texas Tech’s run of postseason appearances?

OFFENSE

Normally, we would talk about how great the Tech passing game always is and that would be the primary gist of the entire offensive overview. However, things change this season in a major manner as the offensive coaching staff is completely altered and Tech’s exceptional passing game will look very different. That said, don’t expect this team to morph into the 2004 Auburn Tigers anytime soon as the new offensive coordinator is Neal Brown, who called the shots for Troy’s explosive offense in each of the last two seasons.

Brown will have a lot of talent to build his offense with this season. At quarterback, seniors Taylor Potts (3,440 yards, 22 TDs, 13 INT in ’09) and Steve Sheffield (1,219 yards, 14 TDs, 4 INT) were supposed to battle it out in the spring but both players suffered injuries early on and the competition will continue into the fall. The good news is that both men proved to be very effective last season and whoever wins the starting job will probably be one of the league’s more productive passers.

Another reason that I have a lot of faith that the passing game will continue to be strong is the fleet of deep returning receivers. Seniors Detron Lewis (65 catches, 844 yards, 6 TDs) and Lyle Leong (45 catches, 571 yards, 9 TDs) will combine with junior Tramain Swindall (55 catches, 694 yards, 5 TDs) and sophomore Alexander Torres (67 catches, 806 yards, 6 TDs) form one of the league’s deepest and most effective sets. I have no doubt that this will be a very productive group.

The passing game will also get a boost from #1 tailback Barron Batch (884 rush yards, 57 catches, 395 receiving yards, 15 total TDs), who finished 3rd on the team in receptions last season. Batch should also be significantly more productive on the ground this fall as he will be the primary beneficiary of the increased focus on the running game. I have no doubt that he will eclipse the 1,000 yard mark if he stays healthy and I like Tech’s chances for a solid ground attack.

The final piece of the puzzle is the O-Line, a position that Tuberville had great success with during his tenure at Auburn. However, Texas Tech has always played a ton of leviathans up front in recent years and there was a renewed emphasis on quickness over girth this spring. That could lead to a transitional season in terms of performance and on top of that, the line also only returns two starters from last season. With a new system and a new emphasis physically, I think that this will be a tough year up front.

Overall, this should still be a productive offense despite the coaching change. There is just way too much talent at the skill positions for this group to drop off too much. However, I am very concerned that the transformation of the offensive line will prevent this unit from being as productive as they are capable. Furthermore, I am also worried that the new scheme will slow down the explosiveness of the passing game. In the end, I will be mildly surprised if this team scores more than 30 points per game in 2010 but that should still be more than enough points to win a lot of games.

DEFENSE

This will be a very different looking defense than the one that took the field for the Red Raiders in 2009 as they switch to a 3-4 defense. This makes a lot of sense as the 3-4 allows for more versatility in the pass-happy Big XII and it also compensates for the heavy losses up front. Senior Colby Whitlock (45 tackles, 3 sacks) is the only returning starter on the line but his role will change this season as the nose tackle lining up over center: Expect him to occupy more blockers but make less plays. This line is a bit of a concern to me because I think they’re going to be a bit undersized after losing a lot of major contributors from last year.

At linebacker, there are two senior returning starters. Brian Duncan (88 tackles) was the team’s leading tackler in 2009 and he should have a big season playing a hybrid position in the new set. Bront Bird (56 tackles, 1 sack) will also be a 3rd year starter and I think that these two should anchor a pretty good unit this fall. My only concern is I’m not sure how quickly they’ll adapt to the new system but I don’t have many concerns about their athleticism or productivity.

The defensive backs are easily the most experienced part of this defense. Seniors Frank Mitchem (57 tackles) and LaRon Moore (42 tackles) were very consistent against the run last season and their solid play allowed sophomore safety Cody Davis (81 tackles) to adjust to the college level quickly as he was named a 1st Team Freshman All-American last year. There are certainly plenty of athletic defenders in the secondary and the only concern that I have is that this unit put up great numbers while enjoying the benefits of one of the country’s best pass rushes last season. If they don’t get a great push up front, how far will this unit fall?

I have two major concerns about this defense. First of all, I think that the adjustment to a 3-4 will not be a quick process, especially with the losses on the front line. Tuberville will need time to add the big bodies needed for this system and I think that will noticeably affect performance. Furthermore, Texas Tech finished 4th in the county in sacks last fall, a feat that is extremely unlikely to be repeated this season. That reduction in getting to the quarterback will definitely affect the pass defense and I think that the net effect will be a more porous defense in 2010 as Texas Tech transforms to the new scheme.

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SCHEDULE

The non-conference schedule is very favorable for the Red Raiders. They don’t face a single BCS conference opponent and the only road non-league game is at weakling New Mexico. However, there is a very difficult senior day game against Houston, who is the favorite in Conference USA. As for the Big XII portion, the draw from the North is fairly favorable as they travel to Iowa State and Colorado while hosting Missouri. They also have a neutral site contest against Baylor and host Texas and Oklahoma State in division play and I think that this will end up being a reasonable path to travel towards a bowl berth.

OUTLOOK

There are certainly a lot of positives about Tommy Tuberville’s first squad in Lubbock. The offense, while likely less productive with the change in scheme, has the necessary personnel in place to put up plenty of points this fall. On top of that, the scheme won’t be too tough for the returning attackers to learn because it will still involve a lot of passing. Even with the changes up front, the Red Raiders will still score plenty of points.

However, I am more concerned about the transition on the defensive side of the football. The switch to a 3-4 will be a process that takes some time, especially with the loss of so much talent on the D-Line. The linebackers will be a help in that regard, especially Duncan, but it takes some big-bodies guys to occupy blockers to free them up and that’s going to be an issue. I also worry that Tech defenders will end up thinking more than reacting on the field in the early going as they adjust to the new scheme. The good news is that I think that the secondary is going to be pretty effective but once more, the lack of a pass rush up front will be a detriment to their success.

So how will this team perform after the culture shock that accompanies a surprise coaching change? I think that Tuberville will do a great job overseeing the transition but I don’t think that he has the necessary personnel to immediately run his system to the standards that he would expect. I’m confident that he will lead the Red Raiders to a bowl berth in his first season but I don’t see his first team in Lubbock contending in the conference. Texas Tech is my choice to finish 5 th in the Big XII South Division.

PREDICTED RESULT: 7-5 (3-5 Big XII)