2010 Texas A&M Aggies Football Preview

2009 Results: 6-7, Lost Independence Bowl vs. Georgia

Head Coach: Mike Sherman (3rd year, @ aTm, 10-15 Overall)

Home Venue: Kyle Field (82,600), College Station, Texas

No team that posted a losing record last fall has more buzz heading into the 2010 season than the Texas A&M Aggies, whose powerful offensive attack has a lot of people raising expectations to the roof for this season. I think a large reason for the team’s high hopes was their performance in a shootout loss against archrival Texas on Thanksgiving last season and that impressed a lot of people around the country. Furthermore, their high-profile dalliance with the SEC during the conference expansion discussions this summer has increased the value of the A&M program in many people’s eyes. Can 3rd year coach Mike Sherman’s veteran team live up to the expectations that might exceed the team’s actual talent level and compete in the Big XII South this season?

OFFENSE

Texas A&M’s excellent offense finished 3 rd in the Big XII last season, putting up an average of 33 points per contest. The leader of the attack is quarterback Jerrod Johnson (3,579 pass yards, 506 rush yards, 38 total TDs, 8 INT in ’09), whose excellent dual threat abilities will make this one of the country’s most dangerous units. The 2 nd Team Big XII selection is one of the best in the country and is the early favorite to be the most productive quarterback in the entire conference.

Johnson’s passing skills will be complimented by one of the conference’s elite groups of wideouts. Juniors Ryan Tannehill (46 catches, 609 yards, 4 TDs) and Jeff Fuller (41 catches, 568 yards, 7 TDs) and sophomore Uzo Nwachukwu (40 catches, 708 yards, 6 TDs, 1st Team Freshman All-American) give A&M the league’s best trifecta of pass catchers and I think that all three will have great campaigns this fall.

But the passing game isn’t the only aspect of the Aggie attack that benefits greatly from Johnson’s presence. The running attack will excel with his mobility and he will be complimented by a tandem of excellent tailbacks. Sophomore Christine Michael (884 yards, 10 TDs) was the Big XII Freshman of the Year in 2009 and junior Cyrus Gray (757 rush yards, 28 catches, 226 receiving yards, 7 total TDs) is excellent both running and catching the football. I fully expect this tandem to power one of the top running games in the country in 2010.

Finally, the O-Line will play a major role in this team’s success. However, they are by far the least experienced aspect of this attack as the two starting guards are the only returning starters. The good news is that senior Matt Allen played extensively last season and he should step in easily at center. With a solid interior, the only part of this group that I have any concerns about is at tackle, where true freshman Luke Joeckel claimed a starting job in the Spring as an early enrollee. While this makes me very worried about the pass protection, this should be somewhat offset by Johnson’s mobility. I think that this line will get the job done.

Overall, Texas A&M has the potential to be the most lethal offense in the entire conference. They are probably the most loaded team in the Big XII at the skill positions as they are blessed with both talent and depth at tailback and wideout. Furthermore, Johnson is one of the most dangerous players in the country and his running abilities will be a nightmare for opposing defenses. While I am worried about the offensive tackles, especially against elite opponents like division rivals Oklahoma and Texas, there is no question that this is a premier offense.

DEFENSE

With such a loaded offense returning, you have to blame the defense for A&M failing to win more than six games last fall. However, Sherman was well aware of the problems that his team had while allowing an average of 33.5 points per game and a change was made at defensive coordinator. Former Air Force DC Tim DeRuyter takes over this season and has the Aggies switching to a 3-4 scheme this season. Will the new look improve their production?

The biggest change is that 2nd Team All-American Von Miller (48 tackles, 17 sacks) moves from defensive end to a rush linebacker position. This is a risk, as he led the NCAA in sacks last season! I think that his individual stats might suffer but the entire pass rush should be improved as they have plenty of ways to disguise their attack and might even put Miller into more favorable one on one matchups. He joins a stellar group of ‘backers as junior Garrick Williams (74 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and sophomores Kyle Mangan (70 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Sean Porter (42 tackles, 1 sack) should complete one of the league’s best linebacker units.

The new three man front that will be tasked with occupying blockers will be very interesting to watch develop. Senior Lucas Patterson had a great spring and could end up being a prototype nose tackle this fall for the Aggies with his huge frame. On top of that, strong side DE Tony Jerod-Eddie (23 tackles, 1 sack) is a massive 6’5”, 300 pound beast and I think that this line will give their talented linebackers plenty of room to make plays. Expect a much-improved run defense from A&M this fall.

But the one concern that I have with this defense is the secondary. While they have to replace a 6th round NFL draft pick at safety, they have two returning junior starters. Safety Trent Hunter (95 tackles) built upon a Freshman All-American campaign in 2008 while cornerback Terrence Frederick (61 tackles, 2 INT) is a very valuable cover man. But as good as Hunter is, this is a very young group of defensive backs overall and I don’t have a ton of confidence in them to emerge as a stellar unit against the pass.

Compared to 2009, I think that Texas A&M will be a significantly better defense. The 3-4 defense should allow them to attack the offenses instead of reacting to them and that aggressiveness could pay off in a big way. However, the aggressive look could also burn the Aggies as their secondary isn’t great. While I don’t think that this will be any more than a slightly above average defense in the Big XII, that will still be a big improvement for A&M this fall.

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SCHEDULE

The Aggie schedule is a mixed bag. Their non-conference portion features three minnows in the first three weeks before an off week to prepare for nine straight BCS Conference opponents. Historical rival Arkansas will meet the Aggies in Dallas at Jerryworld after the Big XII opener at Oklahoma State and that will be a difficult game as the Razorbacks are expected to contend in the SEC this fall.

But their draw from the Big XII North is one of the toughest in the South Division. Texas A&M hosts Missouri and Nebraska (the two favorites) while traveling to Kansas! The only silver lining is that the two North powers come to College Station and Kyle Field provides a great home field advantage. That said, a closing third of the season that includes Oklahoma and the Nebraska at home while traveling to Baylor and archrival Texas is a brutal stretch that will ultimately decide whether this team is really a contender in the division.

OUTLOOK

I have to agree with the prevailing opinion that Texas A&M is a legitimate threat in the Big XII South this season. Their offense is absolutely loaded and I could easily see the Aggies averaging 35 or more points per game. In fact, Johnson is a darkhorse Heisman candidate this season and I would not be remotely surprised to see him in New York in early December. Even with an inexperienced pair of tackles, this offense has the ability to beat defenses in every possible manner.

However, I am concerned that the defense will be a liability in the passing game with an inexperienced set of defensive backs. While the front seven appeared to take quickly to the new scheme in the spring, I also am concerned that star rush linebacker Von Miller will be somewhat minimized with the change in scheme after he led the country in sacks last fall. Still, after the mess that the Aggies dealt with defensively in 2009, this definitely looks like a stronger unit.

But are the Aggies truly contenders in the Big XII South? The window is certainly open as rival Texas is reloading, Oklahoma is coming off an eight win season, Oklahoma State was decimated by graduation and Texas Tech in transition after a coaching change. Despite the favorable situation, I am inclined to say that A&M is not going to contend for two reasons. The first is a brutal conference schedule that features the two best teams from the North and the league’s representatives in the National Championship Game from the last two year, all in the final half of the season. The other reason that I don’t think that the Aggies will seriously push Oklahoma or Texas is their pass defense, which I think will cost them at least one game that they shouldn’t lose this season. However, there is no doubt in my mind that Texas A&M is going to earn a bowl berth this fall with ease and their great offense should keep this team in or near the top 25 rankings for the duration of the season. The Aggies are my choice to finish 3rd in the Big XII South Division in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 8-4 (5-3 Big XII)