2010 Tennessee Volunteers Football Preview

2009 Results: 7-6, Lost Chik-Fil-A Bowl vs. Virginia Tech

Head Coach: Derek Dooley (1st year @ UT, 17-20 Overall)

Home Venue: Neyland Stadium (102,455) Knoxville, Tennessee

The 2009 season has to go down as a success for Tennessee. Coming off of a losing season, the Volunteers re-established themselves as a legitimate force to be reckoned with in the SEC East and played Florida and Alabama down to the wire in tight losses. There was a ton of momentum around the program and the coaching staff was held in high esteem, so the upcoming season’s rebuilding job didn’t seem nearly as daunting.

Then Lane Kiffin abruptly left Knoxville in January to head west to take his dream job at USC and everything came crashing down around the Tennessee program. The night that Kiffin took the USC job, former assistant Ed Orgeron was on the telephone with numerous UT recruits, telling them not to enroll in school the next day so that they could follow the coaching staff to Southern Cal! Needless to say, recruiting fell into chaos with less than a month to go before National Signing Day and Tennessee was forced to make a quick decision to hire former Louisiana Tech Coach Derek Dooley to preserve the remainder of the class.

There was also a lot of concern about the hire in Knoxville. While Dooley is the son of Georgia legend Vince Dooley and is considered one of the top rising coaches in the country, he only has three years of experience as a head coach with only one winning season en route to a losing career record. That means that he will have to prove his ability to mold a consistent winner in the crucible of one the SEC East’s powerhouse schools while rebuilding a program that has gone through three coaching staffs in the last three years. With so much turmoil surrounding Tennessee football in the last eight months, can young Dooley pull his team together and earn a bowl berth in 2010?

OFFENSE

Tennessee’s offense made an enormous turnaround in Kiffin’s only season, improving their scoring from 17 points per game to 29 per outing! A lot of credit was given to Kiffin for honing QB Jonathan Crompton’s skills, a task many Volunteer fans thought impossible. But Crompton is gone after being a 5th round NFL draft pick and the pickings are slim under center. The new expected starter is junior Matt Simms, who has great proven bloodlines and little else.

I’m not confident in his ability to produce a great season for two reasons: The first is his inexperience as he transferred from Louisville two years ago and has never started a game in his college career beyond the JUCO ranks. The second reason is that he will be playing behind an absolutely patchwork offensive line that has to replace all five starters! Senior guard Jarrod Shaw’s three career starts represent the entirety of this line’s experience, making them the least seasoned group in the entire country! Coming out of spring, the starting tackles were a sophomore and a true freshman who had enrolled early while another freshman was listed as the starting guard next to Shaw! I have very little faith in this young group to protect Simms because Defensive Linemen in this league will eat this young group alive.

It is also a major hindrance to the running game. While the top two rushers from last season are gone, junior Tauren Poole and sophomore David Oku were excellent in the spring and expectations are high for both after they barely saw the field last fall. Poole was shuffled behind Kiffin favorite Bryce Brown last year, who has since transferred, and Oku showed great skill catching the ball out of the backfield. Even with the O-Line woes, this should be a productive pair of tailbacks as both bring something different to the table.

The final piece to the puzzle is at wideout, where the top three receivers are back from 2009. Gerald Jones (46 catches, 680 yards, 4 TDs) and Denarius Moore (40 catches, 540 yards, 7 TDs) should form a solid starting duo while tight end Luke Stocker (29 catches, 389 yards, 5 TDs) completes a solid trio of senior pass catchers. Throw in some excellent young recruits and this has the potential to be a very productive unit……if someone can get the ball in their hands.

For as much potential that the wide receivers and tailbacks have this season, I cannot overlook the complete inadequacy at quarterback and on the offensive line. Simms has virtually no experience at the D-1A level and his backup will be a true freshman, so even with a strong line I wouldn’t be optimistic for great quarterbacking this fall. But behind the most inexperienced line in college football, I have very little hope for an effective passing game. The other major problem with such a young line is that the running game will be adversely affected and that will really limit Tennessee’s options to move the football. Simply put, almost every single play is decided in the trenches and the Volunteers are going to be at a major disadvantage against most opponents in that regard. I would advise UT fans to take a long view on things and write this season off as a learning experience up front because it is going to be a tough season scoring points.

DEFENSE

The outlook isn’t nearly as dire on defense, where there is significantly more talent returning. That said, the Volunteers have to deal with losing two 1st round picks from last season, so there is certainly a lot of productivity to replace. Can new defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox, who oversaw Boise State’s defense the last four years, cultivate a tough defense with significantly more talent to work with than his offensive counterparts?

Up front, Tennessee has a strong set of starting defensive ends. Chris Walker (42 tackles, 6 sacks) and Ben Martin (38 tackles, 3.5 sacks) are both seniors and I have a lot of confidence that they’ll hold up well against the run and create a solid pass rush. Where there is a concern is at defensive tackle, as monstrous DT Dan Williams was a 1st round pick and the expected new starters are both sophomores. With a young and inexperienced group to replace last year’s stalwart presence inside, I think that the Vols will be more vulnerable against the run this fall.

The good news is that two starters are back at linebacker. After injuries absolutely ravaged this group last year, a season with better health will also help their production. Seniors LaMarcus Thompson (35 tackles, 1 sack). Nick Reveiz (27 tackles, 4 games, torn ACL) and Savion Frazier (38 tackles, 1 sack, torn ACL) are expected to be the starting trio and right away there is a very worrisome fact: Two of these guys tore their knees up last season! While ACL injuries are not nearly as devastating in the long term like they were 10 or 20 years ago, you have to question how effective both players will be when they’re less than a year removed from surgery.

The secondary is also greatly diminished. Safety Eric Berry, a two time 1st Team All-American at safety and a 1st round selection in the NFL draft, was widely considered one of the best playmakers in the nation and no one will be able to match his impact this season. Tennessee thought that they had found a capable replacement for him in the spring, but sophomore Darren Myles Jr. was thrown off the team after being arrested during a high-profile bar fight that resulted in a police officer ending up in the hospital. That leaves sophomore Janzen Jackson (37 tackles, 1 INT), who played extensively next to Berry last season, as the only solidified starting safety. At corner, junior Art Evans (39 tackles) is back after starting in 2009 but he is still looking for his first career interception. Without Berry and subsequently Miles, this is going to be an average group of defensive backs, at best.

Overall, there are a few bright spots for the Volunteer defense. The defensive ends are going to be a handful to contain rushing the quarterback, Jackson has star potential at safety and this entire defense was very highly thought of coming out of high school. However, this will be the 3rd new defensive scheme in three years for many of these players and that will slow them down. Furthermore, a young set of D-Tackles combined with a group of linebackers that is still on the mend from knee injuries is a major red flag against the run. Unfortunately, Tennessee looks like one of the SEC’s worst defenses this season.

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SCHEDULE

The good news for this inexperienced UT squad is that their non-conference schedule is quite navigable. Their only BCS Conference opponent is Oregon, who has to replace their star quarterback and travel east to Knoxville. While the Ducks will be favored, this is a game that the Vols could pull out if the ball bounces their way. Otherwise, D-1AA UT-Martin and C-USA foes UAB and Memphis complete the non-SEC portion.

Conference play looks to be significantly more difficult. Defending National Champion Alabama and Mississippi visit Neyland Stadium while the Vols also have to travel to Death Valley to face LSU. They also have the misfortune of hitting the road against Georgia and South Carolina, though nemesis Florida does come north in September. Overall, this is going to be a very tough league schedule.

OUTLOOK

I’m a firm believer that stability plays a major role in the success of a football program and Tennessee has been the most unstable school in the country for the past two seasons! Needless to say, that already had me soured on the Vols before I went into previewing them in great depth. Unfortunately, a closer inspection simply reconfirmed what I expected to see: This is going to be a rebuilding season in Knoxville.

There simply isn’t one portion of this team that stands out in a positive manner. Even their talented skill position players aren’t among the top units in the SEC this season. Furthermore, they’re going to struggle in the trenches on both sides of the football and that’s a recipe for disaster against the SEC’s renowned linemen. Finally, as much as Volunteer fans hate Lane Kiffin, they cannot deny that this coaching staff is a major downgrade from the one that led UT to a bowl game last fall. I’m afraid that I don’t see this team earning a bowl berth and the Tennessee Volunteers are my choice to finish 5th in the SEC East.

PREDICTED RESULT: 4-8 (1-7 SEC)