2010 Stanford Cardinal Football Preview

2009 Results: 8-5, Lost Sun Bowl vs. Oklahoma

Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (4th year @ Stanford, 17-20 Overall)

Home Venue: Stanford Stadium (50,000)

No team with fewer wins in the past three seasons has garnered as much ‘buzz’ as the Stanford Cardinal. Head Coach Jim Harbaugh thrust himself onto the scene in 2007 as a rising coaching star thanks to a shocking upset victory over USC in the Coliseum and Stanford has been an improving program ever since. Last season was the first year that the Cardinal earned a bowl berth under Harbaugh as tailback Toby Gerhart powered the Pac Ten’s 2nd highest scoring offense en route to a Heisman runner up finish. While Gerhart has departed, Harbaugh’s tireless recruiting has stocked this team with a ton of talent and a very experienced team is back this fall. Can Stanford continue on their upwards trajectory and win the Pac Ten this season?

OFFENSE

Stanford was one of only six teams in college football averaged over 200 yards per game both running and passing last fall. This excellent balance powered an offense that scored 35 points per game, a huge increase from the previous season. However, their running attack was powered by Gerhart’s 1,871 yard campaign, so there is clearly a big hole to be filled in his absence. Sophomore Stepfan Taylor (303 yards, 2 TDs in ’09) saw some action as his backup last season and will be counted on to play a much bigger role this fall. He’ll pair with classmate Tyler Gaffney and senior Jeremy Stewart (107 yards, 6.3 yards per carry) to shoulder the load and these two highly touted backs should have a strong campaign. However, they won’t match Gerhart’s dominant production.

Luckily, Stanford will be able pick up most of the slack in the passing attack, as sophomore quarterback Andrew Luck (2,575 yards, 13 TDs, 4 INT) was a 1st Team Freshman All-American last season. Widely considered one of the most talented quarterbacks in the entire country, Luck should come into his own this fall and guide one of the Pac Ten’s most dangerous passing games. Senior Ryan Whalen (57 catches, 926 yards, 4 TDs) will combine with juniors Chris Owusu (37 catches, 682 yards, 5 TDs) and Coby Fleener (21 catches, 266 yards, 1 TD) to give him plenty of options to throw to.

Finally, the Cardinal offensive line is one of the best in the entire country. Two seniors return as center Chase Beeler was a 2nd Team All-Pac Ten choice last year and guard Andrew Philliips will be starting for the 3rd straight season. Two sophomores will also benefit from last autumn’s experience, particularly guard David DeCastro, who was a 2nd Team Freshman All-American. With a so much experience coming off of such a successful 2009 campaign, Stanford’s line should be superb.

This offense will be extremely productive in 2010, even without a dynamite runner like Gerhart. They have two talented young tailbacks running behind a monstrous line to pick up a lot of his production and Luck should sling the ball all over the field with a great group of pass catchers and plenty of time to throw. On top of the myriad of talent returning, there are a lot of highly-touted underclassmen that could make a big impact to keep an eye on. Expect Stanford to have another season near the top of the Pac Ten in scoring.

DEFENSE

The thing that I found so impressive about Stanford’s strong 2009 campaign was that they managed to win eight games without a decent defense! The Cardinal gave up 26.5 points per game (8th in the Pac Ten) while getting blown up through the air (8th in the Pac Ten). In fact, only terrible Washington State gave up more total yards last season! Thus, Stanford managed to win eight games in spite of their defense and without the benefit of a positive turnover margin! With a more experienced group this season and a pool of talented players trying to break into the starting lineup, can the Fightin’ Harbaughs field an improved defense?

The first change to notice is new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s 3-4 defense. Stanford spent all of spring practice installing the new scheme and that means that their D-Line will look vastly different. Senior Sione Fua (24 tackles, 1.5 sacks) has the big body necessary for the 3-4 to work and he should play very well in his new role. The defensive ends are a concern as four redshirt freshmen are going to be counted on to contribute this fall behind junior Matthew Masifilo (18 tackles, 1 sack) and senior Brian Bulcke. While this group won’t be much of a pass rushing threat, they should help the performance against the run.

Where I’m excited to watch the Cardinal defense play is at linebacker. Sophomore Shane Skov (62 tackles) had a great season as a true freshman last year and was nicknamed ‘The Predator’ in spring for his vicious hitting abilities. Classmate Chase Thomas (36 tackles, 4 sacks) is one of two converted defensive ends that will start at outside linebacker this season and he should have a solid year getting after the quarterback. The other converted end is junior Thomas Kesier (47 tackles, 9 sacks), whose excellent 2009 season earned him 1st Team All-Pac Ten honors. Those three could potentially form a dynamic group of playmakers who will surely have a big impact against the run and pressuring the quarterback. Expect Stanford to have one of the best groups of linebackers in the Pac Ten this season.

But the secondary is the elephant in the room after last season’s ugly showing. The good news is that the returning group should be much improved after only snagging eight interceptions last fall. Junior Delano Howell (78 tackles, 2 INT) was a bright spot last season as he was one of two starters who switched from wide receiver and should only get better as he gets more experience on the defensive side of the football. Senior cornerback Richard Sherman (62 tackles, 2 INT) was the other converted wideout and he should see significant progress after a strong debut campaign. The other corner position will feature either senior Corey Gatewood (28 tackles, 1 INT) or junior Johnson Bademosi (28 tackles) as they are expected to battle for the position in camp. With an improved pass rush in the 3-4 set and much more experience in the starting lineup, I think that Stanford will be much better through the air this season.

Overall, the change to the 3-4 scheme should really allow the strength of this defense at linebacker to shine through. The pass rush will be harder to pick up and the mobile ‘backers will be able to make a ton of plays in space. Expect a great year from Skov in particular and that should result in a strong showing on the ground. As for their much-maligned pass coverage, there is no doubt that Howell and Sherman will be significantly more comfortable in their second seasons on defense, making them the centerpieces of an improved aerial showing. While this isn’t an elite defense, it will be a much better unit than the one that took the field in 2009 for Harbaugh.

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SCHEDULE

Like most Pac Ten schools, Stanford has scheduled pretty aggressively. Though they begin the year at home against D-1AA Sacramento State, they also host Wake Forest of the ACC before traveling to Notre Dame to close out September.

On top of that, the conference schedule will be quite difficult as the Fighting Trees have to hit the road five times in league play. Visits to Oregon, Washington and Arizona State are very dangerous but the toughest road game will likely come against archrival Cal. Overall, six away games dot the slate, including two sets of back to back affairs. The toughest portion of the schedule begins with their trip to South Bend, as they follow that up with a visit to Oregon before hosting revenge-minded USC.

OUTLOOK

After losing Toby Gerhart, a lot of people are writing off Stanford this fall. However, I completely disagree with that train of thought, as their offense might actually be more dangerous this season without him! The O-Line is tougher, Luck has a full season of experience under his belt and there are a plethora of talented runners to ease Gerhart’s loss. While I’m sure that the Cardinal will have to throw more this fall, this will still be one of the Pac Ten’s best offenses.

On top of that, their miserable defensive performance should be a thing of the past. The new scheme should allow a very talented troupe of linebackers to make a ton of plays and both Keiser and Skov could end up as 1st Team All-Stars at the end of the year. Finally, it really wasn’t a surprise that Stanford’s pass defense struggled last fall since they had two newly converted wide receivers in the starting lineup while simultaneously failing to generate a pass rush! With more pressure on the quarterback and another year of development in the secondary, the Cardinal’s aerial coverage should be so much better.

All of those factors lead me to believe that Stanford is a serious contender to win the Pac Ten this fall. Furthermore, they also have excellent special teams, highlighted by senior kicker Nate Whitaker’s powerful and accurate leg. Big play wideout Owusu also returned three kickoffs for touchdowns and he will once more be one of the league’s most dangerous return men.

Finally, I am an unabashed believer in what Jim Harbaugh has done with this program. He’s turned a bottom feeder into a contender through strong recruiting and great on-field decision making. I fully believe that this will be one of the best prepared teams in the country for every single game this year. Unfortunately for Stanford, he might be so highly regarded around the country that they could have trouble keeping him after this year. Considering that his alma mater (Michigan) could be looking for a new coach, a successful year combined with another Rich Rodriguez flop could open the door for him to return to Big Ten country.

However, that shouldn’t detract from the promise of 2010. I believe Harbaugh’s team will defend their home field while earning a winning record on the road (trips to Arizona and Oregon are going to be tough to pull off) and that will be enough to post a 7-2 record in conference play. In a wide open year on the West Coast, seven wins will be enough for Stanford to claim their first conference crown since 1999 after Oregon State upsets Oregon on the final day of the year. The Stanford Cardinal is my choice to win the 2010 Pacific Ten Conference and play in the Rose Bowl this season.

PREDICTED RESULT: 10-2 (7-2 Pac Ten)