2010 South Florida Bulls Football Preview

2009 Results: 8-5 Won International Bowl vs. Northern Illinois

Head Coach: Skip Holtz (1st year, 72-50 Overall)

Home Venue: Raymond James Stadium (65,857)

It is a new era for South Florida after the only coach in the history of the program, Jim Leavitt, was fired for allegedly hitting a player during a game last fall. In his place comes one of the brightest young coaches in the country, Skip Holtz, son of legendary Notre Dame coach Lou Holtz. Coming off of consecutive conference championships at East Carolina in Conference USA, there is no question that Holtz is a great coach. Can he take a talented Bulls team and show them how to avoid the 2nd half pitfalls that became commonplace under Leavitt and finally lead USF to a Big East title?

OFFENSE

For Holtz, one of the best parts about inheriting the USF job was the presence of sophomore quarterback B.J. Daniels (1,983 pass yards, 772 rush yards, 23 total TDs, 9 INT), who took over for injured senior Matt Grothe in the 3rd game and promptly led the Bulls to their first ever victory over rival Florida State. Daniels is a great dual threat player but will need help if this offense is going to progress.

That should, in theory, start at running back. Holtz’s offenses at ECU generally featured a powerful running game and unfortunately no one on the roster currently fits that description. Senior Moise Plancher (581 yards, 5 TDs) will likely be the starter but with the group on hand I fully expect Holtz to keep Daniels as a primary part of the running game and cross his fingers that his starting quarterback stays healthy.

The bad news continues with the wide receivers. Senior A.J. Love (26 catches, 489 yards, 4 TDs) was expected to be the top receiver this season but he tore his ACL in the Spring Game, leaving fellow senior Dontavia Bogan (22 catches, 305 yards, 4 TDs) as the top option. As Bogan isn’t nearly the physical mismatch or big play threat that Love presented, there is a clear drop off.

But enough about the bad news. There is great news up front on the offensive line as all five starters are back, four of whom are seniors! This is a wonderful stroke of fortune for Holtz, who will be able to fashion a solid running game even with his diminutive backfield and it will also give Daniels more time to throw and make plays with his feet.

Overall, there are certainly some good signs with this team. I’m probably not giving the tailbacks enough credit due to their lack of size and there will be good depth at the position should injuries arise. Furthermore, there are nine returning starters on this unit, so the experience advantage will be a factor as well. So long as Daniels remains healthy, I fully expect USF to have a productive offense this season.

DEFENSE

South Florida has generally fielded a strong defense in the last five seasons and that seems likely to continue under the defensive-minded Holtz. Former Marshall Head Coach and Ohio State Defensive Coordinator Mark Snyder will call the signals this fall and that’s a good sign as he was always a much better DC than head boss.

Up front, USF is dealing with some serious losses as departed Defensive Ends Jason Pierre-Paul (45 tackles, 6.5 sacks) and George Selvie (42 tackles, 3.5 sacks) were selected in the 1st and 7th rounds of the NFL draft, respectively. That’s a lot of elite pass rushing ability to replace! The good news is that both starting DTs return and that should at least allow this unit to continue their strong performance against the run, though the D-Line’s ability to get to the quarterback will be greatly diminished.

At linebacker, senior Sabbath Joseph (48 tackles) is the team’s top returning tackler from last season. That’s fine and dandy, but he was only the team’s 6 th leading tackler in 2009 and is the only returning starter at ‘backer! Expect sophomore Sam Barrington (41 tackles) to have a breakout campaign after a strong freshman year but the Bulls need to make up for some serious production losses here.

The defensive backs were excellent in pass defense in 2009, allowing the fewest yards through the air of any team in the conference! Unfortunately, the Bulls graduated two players who were drafted in the first three rounds in April, so there is some serious lost talent. In fact, those two combined for 162 tackles and 8 interceptions last season! As the only returning starter (junior Quentin Washington) didn’t even record a single interception last season, I’m very concerned. The only bright spot is sophomore Kayvon Webster (30 tackles, 2 INT), who will look to break out after a good true freshman season.

There should be no questioning USF’s athleticism. As the school has begun to recruit against some of the elite powers that mine talent-rich Florida, the Bulls have managed to bring in plenty of speed. But I will question their experience. USF has to replace four NFL draft picks from last season’s defense, including the majority of their pass rush and interceptions. While there are some very talented youngsters (Barrington, Webster), I think that South Florida’s defense will take a step back this year as those young players make mistakes.

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SCHEDULE

The schedule is very interesting for the Bulls. Big East play includes four home games, but none of the contenders come to Tampa until the end of the year. Furthermore, they have two road night games at WVU and Cincinnati in back to back weeks and that is going to be brutal. Things look a bit better out of conference as they have three games (Stony Brook, WKU, FAU) that appear to be guaranteed wins but they also have to travel to Florida and Miami and I don’t see the Bulls winning either one of those games. In fact, the closing stretch of Pitt, at Miami and UConn is very tough. For a schedule with seven home games, this is a difficult slate.

OUTLOOK

There are a lot of things to like about Skip Holtz’s first team at USF. He inherits a team stacked with great athletes that has been bowl eligible in eight of the last nine seasons. On offense, a veteran line and a rising sophomore quarterback should play an integral role in producing a productive unit and defensively there are some very good looking young prospects.

But it is difficult to overlook the fact that Holtz’s rising young quarterback has only one proven receiver to catch his passes. Furthermore, it is really tough to see USF holding opponents to less than 20 points per game after losing four NFL players from last season’s defense. While I believe that Holtz’s strong recruiting and excellent coaching will eventually result in South Florida being a competitor in the conference, I don’t think that it will occur in 2010. Factor in the tough schedule and I think that USF will barely attain bowl eligibility and finish 5 th in the Big East.

PREDICTED RESULT: 6-6 (3-4 Big East)