2010 Rutgers Scarlet Knights Football Preview

2009 Results: 9-4, Won St. Pete’s Bowl vs. Central Florida

Head Coach: Greg Schiano (10th year, 55-55 Overall)

Home Venue: Rutgers Stadium (52,454)

The last five seasons have been the best five year run in the history of Rutgers football. That’s saying a lot considering that the first college football game in history involved the Scarlet Knights! Then again, considering how terrible they were from that first game in 1869 until 2005, maybe it isn’t. But for all of their recent success, Rutgers hasn’t managed to win the Big East during that time period. Can ballyhooed Head Coach Greg Schiano finally win a conference title after a decade in charge?

OFFENSE

Despite starting a true freshman at quarterback, Rutgers continued a solid run of offensive production in 2009, scoring 29 points per game! Also, saying that they scored that many points despite starting a true freshman isn’t really fair: He was named a Freshman All-American! Now a sophomore, Tom Savage (2,211 yards, 14 TDs, 7 INT in ‘09) could be on the cusp of becoming one of the top quarterbacks in the conference. Easily the highest rated QB recruit ever to matriculate to Rutgers under Schiano, he has a very high ceiling.

But there is also lots of talent around him. Fellow sophomore Mohammed Sanu (51 catches, 639 receiving yards, 346 rush yards, 8 total TDs) dazzled with his gamebreaking skills and showed some flair while running the Wildcat offense. As the only returnee at wideout with any notable production in 2009, he’ll need to continue to develop as a potential #1 receiver while continuing his excellence in the running game. He’s not alone in the backfield, either. Always-reliable junior Joe Martinek (967 rush yards, 9 TDs) will be the starting tailback and he is a classic North-South runner.

So after so much praise for Rutgers’ young skill position players, I’m afraid I have to point out some severe negatives. First of all, the Scarlet Knight O-Line does not inspire much confidence. While junior tackle Art Forst was a 1st Team All-Big East selection in 2009, Rutgers has to replace three players who were three year starters, the best of whom was 2nd Team All-American tackle Anthony Davis, a 1st round pick by the 49ers! There will be some serious growing pains with this rebuilt unit in 2010.

Overall, I like the ‘Big Three’ on this team and really think that Savage, Sanu and Martinek could do some serious damage this fall. However, Sanu is the only receiver of any repute on this team as there is essentially zero experience behind him and that is going to result in a lot of double coverage until another legitimate target emerges. Furthermore, I’m worried that the running game will struggle behind a much-diminished O-Line and that’s also going to affect Savage’s ability to protect the ball by reducing his time to make decisions in the pocket. While there is very good talent on hand, I think that those two major holes will be enough to hold Rutgers back from matching 2009’s scoring totals.

DEFENSE

One major reason for Rutgers’ great success in the past five seasons is the emergence of a seriously improved defense. In the past four years, Rutgers has held opponents to under 20 points per game three times, including 17.9 points per contest last year. With six starters back, can that streak continue?

Up front, Rutgers returns three starters from a solid D-Line that anchored the league’s 2nd best run defense. Senior DE Alex Silvestro (42 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) was a 2nd team All-Big East selection while sophomore DT Scott Vallone (41 tackles, 1.5 sacks) was named a 1st Team Freshman All-American! Furthermore, Rutgers (like other good defenses in places like Columbus, Ohio and Tuscaloosa, Alabama) had a deep rotation in 2009, so senior Jonathan Freeny (33 tackles, 9.5 sacks) led the team in dropping the quarterback despite not being listed as a starter! I think that Rutgers’ depth and explosiveness puts them very near the top of the conference Defensive Line rankings.

I’m less bullish on their linebackers. Senior Antonio Lowery (55 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) is the only returning starter and he is the top returning tackler. While he’s a nice player, Rutgers has to replace their #1 and #3 tacklers from last season at the other two ‘backer spots and that won’t be easy. While sophomore Steve Beauharnais (36 tackles, 5 sacks) was impressive as a backup, he’ll be tasked with filling an NFL draft pick’s spot, never an easy task for an underclassman. This will still be a strong unit but it isn’t going to be pushing the elite class like their D-Line.

In the secondary, Rutgers has one gigantic hole to fill at corner: 1st round NFL draft pick Devin McCourty was the team’s MVP in 2009 and essentially shut down one half of the field in the passing game. How often is a defensive back the MVP of a football team? While senior safety Joe Legefed (44 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) is a solid player and a good kick returner, he won’t be the talisman that McCourty was. By losing him, Rutgers is undoubtedly going to take a step back, even with talented young players like redshirt freshman Darrell Givens ready to step in.

Overall, I think that Rutgers is going to be a tough team to run against this season. Their D-Line is a very deep unit and comes with the added bonus of generating a strong pass rush. Their linebackers, while down a notch from last season, should also have another good campaign and I think that Beauharnais could be a breakout star. However, the secondary is going to be a concern and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rutgers allow a lot more yards through the air in 2010.

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SCHEDULE

Rutgers has a tough conference schedule, drawing four league road games. Even worse, the only contending team that comes to Piscataway this season will be UConn, leaving the Scarlet Knights with the most daunting road schedule in the entire conference! Where they’re saved is out of conference, as the only tough game will be in late September, when highly regarded North Carolina comes to town. In fact, that weak non-conference schedule might be the biggest reason that their streak of bowl appearances is extended in 2010.

OUTLOOK

There are obviously some very high points on this Rutgers team. They’re going to be very stout against the run and won’t wear down easily with their depth. Furthermore, the most talented young QB in the entire conference will be starting under center this fall and he has two proven playmakers lining up next to him.

But I can’t get past some of my concerns. First of all, a weak O-Line like Rutgers’ is going to hurt all of the Big Three’s production, especially if Savage has to make quick decisions. With only one proven target in Sanu, that could mean a lot of passes into traffic and that in turn could mean a lot more interceptions. Furthermore, their defensive secondary loses two very strong players, including the team MVP, and I don’t see anyone to replace that production immediately.

Finally, this was a Rutgers team that posted an incredible plus 20 turnover margin last season and that had a major inflationary effect on their scoring numbers. That huge number was the byproduct of a great O-Line that gave their young QB plenty of time to make decisions and a secondary that was dynamic in making plays. With both of those luxuries gone, I’m afraid Savage could find himself chasing after opposing defensive backs with far more frequency this season and Rutgers will probably end up with a far less flattering turnover ratio. If that happens, this team will be hard-pressed to earn bowl eligibility with noticeable holes on both sides of the football. With too many big holes to plug, Rutgers is my choice to finish 6 th in the Big East in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 6-6 (2-5 Big East)