2010 Rice Owls Football Preview

2009 Results: 2-10, No Bowl

Head Coach: David Bailiff (4th year, 15-22 @ Rice, 36-37 Overall)

Home Venue: Rice Stadium (47,000) Houston, Texas

Rice had the biggest single-season turnaround of any team in college football last season, dropping from 10-3 in 2008 to 2-10! While the Owls were decimated on offense, that precipitous of a fall from grace was dreadful, to say the least. Can Rice rebound from last year’s terrible campaign and get back on track for bowl eligibility?

OFFENSE

Rice’s offense was downright miserable last season, scoring 18 points per game, a drop-off of more than 3 touchdowns worth of production every week! Their running game barely mustered 100 yards per outing and their passing game was the worst in the entire conference.

However, things are looking much brighter this fall. The entire O-Line returns after starting four sophomores last season and the only senior starter (the rest are juniors in ’10) is left tackle Scott Mitchell, a 2nd Team C-USA selection in 2009. I expect this unit to be much better this fall thanks to a significantly higher level of experience.

They’ll also be blocking for a far more effective running back unit, as sophomore Michigan transfer Sam McGuffie is now eligible. McGuffie is a perfect fit for the wide-open style of play in C-USA and he will instantly become their most dangerous gamebreaker. Remember, this is the same player that started for Michigan as a true freshman, so he should be a force immediately.

I don’t hold the same optimism for the passing game. While I expect Nick Fanuzzi (1,598 yards, 11 TDs, 8 INT) to be more prepared to run the offense this season as a junior, he has exactly one proven receiver in senior Patrick Randolph (39 catches, 356 yards, 4 TDs). Beyond that, the best news that I can say is that they aren’t trying to replace two NFL draft picks at the position like they were last year, so there is less production to replace.

Concerns about the receivers aside, I like the overall foundation of this offense. McGuffie will bring a huge dose of athleticism and explosiveness back to this offense and I think that Rice will have a very strong running game. Furthermore, McGuffie can also catch passes and he should be able to help open up the aerial attack on screens and dump off plays. Expect Rice to have a much better offense this season but they will be held back by a weak passing game.

DEFENSE

Whatever the concerns that I might have with the offense, they pale next to the quagmire that is the Rice defense. No one in the entire country allowed more points in 2009 than the Owls, ceding a ridiculous 43 points per contest! Rice was outright terrible against both the run and pass and will need some major strides forward this fall.

The good news is that they do bring back a much more seasoned D-Line. Led by the solid senior tandem of Cheta Ozougwu (61 tackles, 4.5 sacks) and Scott Solomon (63 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 2nd Team C-USA), the Owls have the foundation for a pretty strong front wall and that should help them against the run.

The other positive note is that linebackers look pretty good. Junior Travis Bradshaw (121 tackles) was the team’s top tackler last year and former Idaho starter Justin Allen (75 tackles in ’08) appears ready to take over a starting spot. Expect a much better result this fall against the run.

However, the passing game is still a big worry for the Owl defense. While three starters are back from last year’s secondary, they’re starters that oversaw a unit that allowed 28 passing TDs and only got their hands on a measly six interceptions! To crystallize their issues with turnovers, not one returning starter had an interception last year. While an improved pass rush and a season of experience (both corners were underclassmen last year) should help their numbers this fall, Rice’s weakness will be through the air in 2010 and that will likely prevent this from being anything more than an average defense.

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SCHEDULE

The non-conference portion of the schedule is not forgiving, as three BCS opponents appear in September. The silver lining is that all three games take place in Houston but the Owls will have difficulty beating Texas, Baylor and Northwestern, all of whom could play in bowl games this fall. That leaves rising North Texas as the only winnable non-league tilt and the Owls have to hit the road for that game, making a win much tougher. In league play, Rice plays in the tougher division and draws a trip to East co-favorite UCF. While a schedule with six home games and another in the Houston Texans’ home stadium is attractive, a tough non-conference portion and an unfortunate league slate make a winning season a difficult proposition.

OUTLOOK

There are a lot of quality aspects of this Rice team. Their offensive line looks to be improved and McGuffie is a major upgrade at tailback, so I think it is safe to expect a strong running game. However, their passing game is a concern due to a lack of playmakers on the outside and that could render the Owls one dimensional and much easier to defend. Furthermore, their secondary is still a big concern and I don’t know how much better Rice will truly be on defense.

Let me put this as simply as possible: Rice was beaten by an average of 25 points per game in 2009. That’s a lot of ground to make up. While I think they’re a better team, the Owls aren’t improved enough for me to call for them to reach a bowl game thanks to a few major holes and a difficult non-conference schedule. Rice is my pick to finish 4th in the C-USA West Division.

PREDICTED RESULT: 4-8 (4-4 CONFERENCE USA)