2010 Pittsburgh Panthers Football Preview

2009 Results: 10-3, Won Meineke Bowl vs. North Carolina

Head Coach: Dave Wannstedt (6th year, 35-26 Overall)

Home Venue: Heinz Field (65,050)

Last season was an absolute heartbreaker for the Pittsburgh Panthers. They had a great season and the final game of the year came at home against Cincinnati for all of the Big East marbles. Pitt promptly jumped out to a 31-10 lead and momentarily justified all of my criticisms of the Bearcats before the powerful Cincinnati attack roared back and ended up winning in a shootout by the score of 45-44 thanks to a missed Pitt extra point. The Panthers were crushed as a Sugar Bowl berth slipped through their fingers and I was disappointed because I had picked the Panthers before the season to win the conference and they ended up coming oh-so-close to proving me right.

But to Pitt’s credit, they didn’t feel sorry for themselves. Faced with a bowl game on unfriendly ground against a very good North Carolina team, Pitt dug down deep and beat the Tar Heels on a late field goal to cap off their first ten win season since the days of Dan Marino. The Panthers have recruited the best talent in the league since Head Coach Dave Wannstedt arrived in town and that talent edge could do them well this year as they have to fill a lot of holes. Can the Panthers take that extra step this season and win the Big East Championship?

OFFENSE

The biggest surprise of the 2009 Big East season was the break out campaign of Dion Lewis (1,799 rush yards, 25 catches, 189 receiving yards, 18 total TDs), who was a 2nd Team All-American as a true freshman! While Lewis was a workhorse running the ball, Pitt will try to take a little bit of the load off this season and keep him fresh (and healthy) by letting fellow sophomore Ray Graham (349 yards, 5.7 yards per carry, 4 TDs) tote the rock a bit more this fall. Regardless of how many carries Graham ends up getting, I fully expect these two to be the key players in the Big East’s best rushing attack.

The offensive line will be led by senior left tackle Jason Pinkston, who was a 1st Team All-Big East selection. Junior right tackle Lucas Nix could easily join him on the all-league team this season, giving Pitt the best set of tackles in the conference. However, they have to replace the interior of their line and that will be very interesting to watch develop. The Panthers have recruited more big time talent than anyone in the Big East in the past few seasons and I think they’ll show the depth to fill the holes with ease.

Meanwhile, the passing game was originally a very big concern heading into the spring as the Panthers had to replace starting QB Bill Stull and some key contributors at wide receiver. However, sophomore quarterback Tino Sunseri ran away from all competitors in practice and is firmly entrenched as the starter heading into the season. Expect him to have a strong campaign but if he falters, junior Pat Bostick has a lot of experience, including a win at Notre Dame in 2008!

It also helps that junior Jonathan Baldwin (57 catches, 1111 yards, 8 TDs) is the most talented receiver in the entire Big East and is a jump ball monster, so whoever is quarterback has an excellent safety net. While most people consider Alabama’s Julio Jones and Georgia’s A.J. Green to be the best junior receivers in the country, Baldwin is every bit of the athlete that either one of them is. As for the rest of the receivers, sophomore Mike Shanahan (14.1 yards per catch) also showed big play potential last year and could catch a ton of passes with Baldwin drawing double coverage.

In the end, Pitt is going to have a great running game, even with the new personnel on the interior line. That running game and a pair of elite tackles should be able to give their new starting quarterback plenty of time to find open receivers and Baldwin will always be open off of play action. After averaging over 32 points per game last season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pitt put up similar numbers in 2010.

DEFENSE

Pitt was great against the run last season and that dominance on the ground was the primary reason that they held opponents under 20 points per game. While they have to replace both starting defensive tackles, the Panthers will boast the conference’s top pair of pass rushing ends in seniors Greg Romeus (43 tackles, 8 sacks, 1 INT, 1st Team All-Big East) and Jabal Sheard (42 tackles, 5 sacks). I’m also not really too worried about the tackles because there is great depth on hand thanks to strong recruiting in talent-rich Western Pennsylvania. Expect another strong D-Line to anchor the Panther defense.

The pass rushing abilities of Sheard and Romeus are crucial to the success of this defense because it allows the Panthers to drop more people into pass protection when the D-Line can generate its own pass rush. Nowhere is that edge more apparent than at the safety position, where senior Dom DeCicco (88 tackles, 3 INT) and sophomore Jarred Holley (48 tackles, 3 INT) are both ball hawks. Pitt wants them in coverage as much as possible so not having to sneak them up into the box to cover a rushing linebacker is a major bonus. While the Panthers have to replace 1st Team All-Big East corner Aaron Berry, I think that this defense is still going to get their hands on a lot of interceptions this fall.

Finally, the D-Line is going to open up a ton of space for Pitt’s talented linebackers to run to the football. Junior Max Gruder (91 tackles) led the team in stops last season and will be of the leaders on defense. Perhaps his biggest job will be mentoring super talented sophomore Dan Mason (26 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT), who served as 1st Team All-Big East middle linebacker Adam Gunn’s understudy last season. Expect Mason to challenge Gruder for the team lead in tackles this season when he finally gets a chance to play every game.

In short, Pittsburgh’s recruiting edge of being located in prime high school football territory is definitely going to pay off in 2010. The D-Line is going to be one of the league’s strongest, the defensive backs are going to get their hands on a ton of interceptions and the linebackers look to be really athletic. While archrival West Virginia will dispute it loudly and vigorously, I think that the Panthers have a legitimate claim as the Big East’s best defense.

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SCHEDULE

Pitt has a lot of cojones to play the non-conference schedule that they do in 2010. Kicking off the season with a Thursday night visit across the country to always dangerous Utah is a really tough opening affair, especially as Utah approaches its final season before heading to the Pac Ten. Furthermore, the Panthers host former conference rival Miami on a Thursday night before traveling to Notre Dame two weeks later! That’s a non-league schedule that ranks amongst the toughest in the country.

As for Big East play, Pitt only has three conference home games, leaving them with only six home dates overall. Furthermore, the only contender that comes to Heinz Field in 2010 is archrival West Virginia and the Panthers have to play three of their final four games on the road. In my opinion, the most dangerous game on the entire schedule is a visit to Connecticut on a Thursday night in November. With ten BCS Conference opponents (including Utah) on the docket, this is the toughest overall schedule in the Big East.

OUTLOOK

Thanks to the tireless recruiting of Dave Wannstedt, the Panthers are probably the most talented team in the entire conference. That comes into play this season because Pitt has to replace some key contributors from the last two seasons. However, the Panther offense returns the best set of offensive tackles in the conference, the Big East’s leading rusher and the best athlete at any position in Jonathan Baldwin. On top of that, the Pitt defense returns the best pair of pass rushing DEs in the conference, a pair of ball hawks at safety and one of the most talented groups of linebackers in the Big East.

Are there some concerns? Of course. The interior of the O-Line is being replaced and the starting quarterback will be a sophomore. But the play of Sunseri in the spring combined with the sheer volume of talent surrounding him offsets any of my concerns on offense. Meanwhile, the defense’s concerns are rather minute in comparison, so I’m left to fall back on the brutal schedule as my biggest deterrent towards picking the Panthers. As the most difficult part of their schedule occurs outside of Big East play (and I think that Pitt will win two out of three against Utah, Miami and Notre Dame), that doesn’t fly either.

Thus, I believe that the Pitt Panthers are the class of the Big East in 2010. While they will have some bumps in the road with a tough schedule, I think that the Panthers are in for another ten win season. I’m picking Pitt to win the 2010 Big East Championship with a 6-1 conference record and a 10-2 overall mark and play in their first BCS Bowl since 2004.

PREDICTED RESULT: 10-2 (6-1 Big East)