2010 Penn State Nittany Lions Football Preview

2009 Results: 11-2, Won Capital One Bowl vs. LSU

Head Coach: Joe Paterno (45th year @ PSU, 394-129-3 Overall)

Home Venue: Beaver Stadium (107,282), State College, Pennsylvania

Even with an eleven win season in 2009 that culminated with a Capital One Bowl victory over LSU of the hated SEC and a #9 final ranking, I’m not sure that Penn State gets the respect that they deserve from the rest of the country. In the last five years, the Nittany Lions have won two Big Ten titles, posted a 51-13 overall record that includes a 4-1 bowl record and finished each season ranked in the top 25! That’s the 2nd most successful five year run in legendary Head Coach Joe Paterno’s illustrious career and only five other BCS Conference teams have won more games in that time period: Florida, Ohio State, Texas, USC and Virginia Tech. That’s one heck of an accomplishment by a man who turns 84 this December and should underline the fact that this is an elite program.

But even elite programs go through rebuilding seasons every now and then and 2010 could be the first time in half of a decade that Penn State fails to win at least nine games. The Nittany Lions have to replace six NFL draft picks and two other players that were 1st Team All-Big Ten selections last fall, one of the country’s most severe drains of talent. Furthermore, they have a historically difficult schedule to navigate. Can Paterno work his magic and keep his team in the Big Ten Championship conversation with so many key losses?

OFFENSE

Penn State rode a balanced attack in 2009 a 5 th place finish in the Big Ten in scoring offense (29 points per game) and a 2nd place finish in total offense (407 yards per game). In fact, they were so evenly effective that they finished 5th in the conference on the ground and through the air! However, there are a few key losses that could be very difficult to replace: Can the Nittany Lions maintain their exceptional balance this year?

The most glaring hole is at quarterback, where PSU has to replace two-time 1st Team All-Big Ten quarterback Darryl Clark, who passed for 5,600 yards over the last two years. Now, that’s excellent production that the Nittany Lions have to replace but it is going to be very difficult to do so with two sophomores competing for the starting gig, one of whom is a former walk-on! In fact, Penn State’s entire depth chart at quarterback is comprised of underclassmen! 2nd year QB Kevin Newsome barely saw the field last season as Clark’s backup but he does have good mobility. The real question is whether the poor performances that Newsome and challenge Matt McGloin endured in the spring will carry over to the fall. If they do, PSU will have the weakest quarterbacks in the league.

The other major concern is the O-Line, which has to replace 3 rd Team All-American tackle Dennis Landholt. The line was shuffled around a lot during the spring and 1st Team All-Big Ten center Stephen Wisniewski was moved back into his comfort zone at guard. However, this is still going to be a senior-laden group and they should manage to have a strong season, though they will miss Landholt’s excellent pass protection abilities.

The primary focus of the offense will be on the ground, as the Nittany Lions have two strong runners. Senior Evan Royster (1,169 rush yards, 21 catches, 187 receiving yards, 8 total TDs in ‘09) was a 1st Team All-Big Ten selection in ‘09 and he has stated repeatedly that he wants to carry the load even more this year. After only averaging 16 carries per game last season, expect him to see the ball a lot more. With speedy junior Stephfon Green (319 yards, 3 TDs) backing him up, it seems likely that Penn State will skew much more heavily towards the run in 2010.

Now, the new run-heavy focus is no fault of the receivers, who had a solid season last year. Senior Graham Zug (46 catches, 600 yards, 7 TDs) and junior Derrick Moye (48 catches, 785 yards, 6 TDs) should form one of the Big Ten’s best wideout tandems after gelling quickly last fall. If a quarterback can step up this season, this will be a productive group.

As usual, there is a lot of talent in State College. Despite the concern of PSU’s vocal fanbase, I have no doubt that the O-Line will turn into an effective unit by the time the 2nd half of the year rolls around. With a powerful lead back in Royster and a great backup in Green, the Nits should move the ball extremely well on the ground this season. But I have very little faith in the quarterback situation. Kevin Newsome is expected to start but didn’t manage to distance himself from a former walk-on while struggling to throw the football during the spring. His mobility will get him on the field to start the year but true freshman Paul Jones could be pushing for playing time by the midpoint of the season. Clearly, none of these underclassmen will approach the exceptional production of Clark in the last two seasons. I don’t see Penn State maintaining their excellent balance without an effective passing game and that means fewer points on the scoreboard and a diminished capacity to come back late in games when they have to throw the football.

DEFENSE

One thing that you can always count on at Penn State is an exceptional defense. The highest scoring average that they have allowed in any of the last six seasons was a highly respectable 17.5 points per contest in 2007. Last year was PSU’s best showing during that entire time span, as they finished 1st in the Big Ten in scoring defense at a miniscule 12.2 points per game, barely edging out rival Ohio State for the honor. The Nittany Lions led the league in sacks while finishing 2nd against the run to cap off a great campaign. However, they have to rebuild their defense after four of their top five tacklers heard their names called in the NFL draft. Can Penn State continue their traditional defensive dominance this fall?

The Nits have become well-known for their excellent play on the defensive line as position coach Larry Johnson is regarded as one of the best recruiters in the country. There is definitely a lot of talent back on this unit, even with the loss of 1st round pick Jared Odrick. Junior defensive end Jack Crawford (31 tackles, 5.5 sacks) had a solid first season as a starter in ’09 and he should improve with experience. Meanwhile, classmate Eric Latimore (21 tackles, 3.5 sacks) played extensively last fall and should pair with Crawford to give PSU a solid pair of pass rushers off of the edge. In the middle, senior Ollie Ogbu (30 tackles, 2 sacks) is entering his 4th season as a starter and he will be a force in the middle. With junior Devon Still (19 tackles, 2 sacks) primed for a strong campaign next to him, I’m very confident that the Nittany Lions will have one of the league’s best D-Lines this season.

What will be interesting to watch is how the self-styled ‘Linebacker U’ retools at the position that many associate with the school. All three of last season’s starters were drafted (including two players in the top 3 rounds) and they were the team’s top trio of tacklers in 2009! Replacing a combined total of 295 tackles, 7 sacks and 5 interceptions is going to be very difficult for a new group to live up to, even with a great line in front of them. Luckily, senior Bani Gbadyu (37 tackles) and junior Nate Stupar (31 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) saw the field extensively last season, so they’re not completely green. With highly talented sophomore Michael Mauti expected to step into the starting lineup after missing ’09 with a knee injury, it seems likely that Penn State will still have a good set of linebackers. However, it is very unlikely that this group will match the elite performance that was delivered by last season’s stars.

Finally, the defensive backs are also an experienced unit. Three juniors return who started at least 12 games on the Big Ten’s 3rd rated pass defense last fall and the experience that all three gained as underclassmen could pay off in a big way. Safeties Drew Astorino (62 tackles, 1 INT) and Nick Sukay (41 tackles, 2 INT) should be one of the conference’s top tandems and cornerback D’Anton Lynn (35 tackles) should be more of a ball hawk. With a solid pass rush up front and good depth in this group, I fully expect the Nittany Lions to have another fine year defending through the air.

It seems like it will be business as usual this fall for Penn State’s defense. Their D-Line should be one of the best in the conference and their ability to defend the run while generating a good pass rush will be invaluable. Yes, the linebackers are going to be less effective than they were last season but does anyone really seriously doubt how well they’ll perform? This is ‘Linebacker U’, after all! Finally, a much more veteran secondary should continue PSU’s brilliant performance against the pass. When all of that comes together, it seems likely that Penn State will have one of the Big Ten’s best defenses this season.

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SCHEDULE

In the introduction, I said that Penn State faces a historically difficult schedule this fall. That’s because they’re the first squad in NCAA history to visit three teams that won BCS Bowl games the previous season in one year! The Nits travel to Alabama (BCS Champions), Iowa (Orange Bowl Champions) and Ohio State (Rose Bowl Champions) and they will be big underdogs in all three contests. The silver lining is that they only have one other true road affair this season as (at Minnesota) thanks to a $3 million payment to Indiana to move the game from Bloomington to Washington D.C., effectively ensuring a virtual home game for PSU.

The Alabama game is the only difficult non-conference opponent as Temple and Kent State of the MAC join D-1AA Youngstown State on the September slate. Meanwhile, the Nits avoid Wisconsin and Purdue thanks to the unbalanced Big Ten schedule, leaving them with home games against Illinois, Michigan, Northwestern and Michigan State. While there are some very daunting games on the docket this year, the relative ease of the rest of the schedule should ensure another solid season for JoePa.

OUTLOOK

2010 could be a throwback season for Penn State as they appear to have a clear formula for success: Run the football and play great defense. While I don’t have a lot of faith in any of the PSU quarterbacks to power anything more than a rudimentary passing game, Paterno’s staff will be quite comfortable running the ball and letting their defense take care of business. After all, Ohio State won a share of the Big Ten title in 2008 using this exact strategy when Terrelle Pryor was a true freshman, so Penn State should feel confident about their chances.

But there are a few major differences between this Penn State team and the one that Ohio State fielded in 2008. First of all, the Nits have a brutal schedule that features three road games against teams that won BCS Bowl games last season, a remarkable challenge. Second, the Big Ten is a very deep league this year and Ohio State’s 2008 co-champion team didn’t have to navigate such a treacherous conference. Finally, Kevin Newsome and Paul Jones simply don’t compare to Pryor, no matter how much some Penn State fans that are still bitter about Pryor’s decision to go to Ohio State protest otherwise.

The good news is that their schedule really isn’t that tough beyond their big three games. While Northwestern and Michigan State will be difficult contests, both of those opponents come to Beaver Stadium in the 2nd half of the season and they should face a more experienced group of Nittany Lions that will have already played two of the biggest games in the country. While I do not think that Penn State will win at Alabama, Iowa or Ohio State, they’re going to be favored in every single other game on their schedule as they luckily avoid Wisconsin. It looks like 2010 will be another eight or nine win season for Joe Paterno and I expect the year to conclude with a New Year’s Day bowl showdown in Florida against an SEC opponent. The Penn State Nittany Lions are my pick to finish 5th in the Big Ten Conference in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 8-4 (5-3 Big Ten)