2010 Oregon State Beavers Football Preview

2009 Results: 8-5, Lost Las Vegas Bowl vs. BYU

Head Coach: Mike Riley (10th year @ OrSU, 64-47 Overall)

Home Venue: Reser Stadium (45,674)

No team in the country has more consistently defied expectations in the last four seasons than the Oregon State Beavers. They’re usually picked in the bottom half of the league by the media before the season, yet they always manage to exceed expectations by a wide margin with a top three finish in the Pac Ten! However, no one in the conference is going to take the Beavers lightly this fall after they were one game away from the Rose Bowl in each of the last two years. Can Head Coach Mike Riley continue his excellent run of success and win the school’s first Pac Ten Championship in over 40 years?

OFFENSE

Oregon State had an extremely strong season last year, putting up 31 points per game en route to finishing 3rd in the conference in scoring. The Beavers had the league’s #1 rated passing game and finished 2nd in total yards behind nemesis Oregon. However, OSU has to replace star QB Sean Canfield after such a strong year and that is by far the biggest question about this offense in 2010.

Sophomore Ryan Katz will be the new starter this season after a strong spring showing. What should ease his transition into the starting lineup is a great set of wide receivers, led by senior James Rodgers (91 catches, 1,054 receiving yards, 303 rush yards, 10 total TDs), a two time 1st Team All-Pac Ten selection. While he is by far the most experienced wideout, the Beavers have a robust passing game out of the backfield, where Rodgers’ younger brother Jacquizz (78 catches, 522 yards, 1 TD) and junior Aaron Halahuni (35 catches, 486 yards, 3 TDs) combined for over 110 catches last season. While Katz will have great difficulty matching Canfield’s wonderful results, he should pilot an effective passing attack this year.

But this should be a balanced attack as well. The younger Rodgers is also an exceptional runner, as he racked up 1,440 rush yards and 21 touchdowns on the ground last year en route to 1st Team All-Pac Ten honors. The only concern is that they have an over-reliance on just one runner, as Quizz hefted an incredible 273 carries last fall. It also helps that he will run behind a very veteran line that returns four players who started all 13 games last season. Senior center Alex Linnenkohl is the most experienced with 28 career starts and he will provide great leadership as the line’s signal caller. Sophomore tackle Michael Philipp was a 1st Team Freshman All-American last year as a true frosh and he might be the best player on a strong O-Line. Expect another strong rushing attack this fall for the Beavers as long as the Rodgers brothers are healthy.

The big unknown about the Oregon State offense is at quarterback, but the good news is that Katz is surrounded by a lot of talent. The presence of the playmaking Rodgers brothers should ensure that the Beavers are very productive through the air and on the ground this fall. With a tough O-Line guiding the way, I feel confident that Katz is going to have an effective year running the Oregon State attack in 2010.

DEFENSE

The Beaver defense was fairly effective last season, though their 25 points per game average was only 6th in the conference. However, that number is skewed a bit by their final two games, which saw them allow 81 points against Oregon and BYU. Despite that disappointing conclusion, Oregon State did boast the 3rd ranked run defense in the Pac Ten and will return a large number of contributors in the front seven. Can Oregon State repeat their solid showing on the ground while avoiding the late season collapse that marred an otherwise excellent 2010 campaign?

The Beavers have a stellar defensive line, anchored by two seniors as 2nd Team All-Pac Ten selection Stephen Paea (43 tackles, 3 sacks) will pair with Brennan Olander (28 tackles, 1 sack) to form a strong pair of defensive tackles. Meanwhile, sophomore DE Taylor Henry (4 sacks in the Spring Game) will pair with senior Gabe Miller (23 tackles, 3 sacks) to try to kick-start a pass rush that was non-existent last fall. This should be another stout unit against the run and I’m confident that the defensive ends will get more pressure on the quarterback.

The linebackers are going to be the least experienced aspect of this defense. After the team’s top tackler from last season graduated, the 2nd leading tackler quit in the spring, leaving senior Dwight Roberson (55 tackles, 2 sacks) as the only returning starter. Misfortune struck again late in the spring as senior Keith Pankey (44 tackles, 1.5 sacks) tore his Achilles, robbing him of vital preparation time. However, he seems to be a quick healer and should cap off an incredible recovery by starting for the Beavers opposite Roberson. His return will also boost a group of linebackers that would have been much diminished without him in the lineup.

The strongest level of the defense has to be the secondary. Junior safeties Lance Mitchell (72 tackles, 3 INT) and Cameron Collins (70 tackles) will form one of the league’s best safety tandems in their 2nd season together. Meanwhile, senior cornerback James Dockery (38 tackles, 2 INT) will pair with junior Brandon Hardin (29 tackles, 1 INT), who was very impressive in the spring. Expect a strong showing against the pass this year.

There are a few major reasons why I believe that Oregon State will be an improved defense in 2010. First of all, the defensive line will benefit from Paea’s stalwart presence against the run. Second, the ends should generate a much better pass rush this season than last year’s paltry effort (9th in the Pac Ten) and that should have a ripple down effect for the secondary. Furthermore, the extraordinary recovery from an Achilles tear by Pankey will be a huge boost to continuing OSU’s excellent showing against the run. Finally, the secondary will be much more experienced this season and I fully expect a much stronger showing, especially with more pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Expect a strong season from the Beaver defense.

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SCHEDULE

Oregon State has an incredibly difficult schedule. They will be the darlings of the anti-BCS Buster crowd as they play against TCU in Texas and at Boise State in the first month of the year. The final non-Pac Ten affair isn’t a pushover either as Louisville treks westward to complete a loaded non-conference schedule.

Oregon State has the good fortune of five home games in Pac Ten play, including key late season showdowns with Cal and USC. On top of that, the Civil War with Oregon comes back to Corvallis this year as the Beavers try to break a two year losing streak in one of the country’s most hate-filled rivalries. But even with their home field advantage in conference play, Oregon State has one of the most loaded schedules in the country with ten BCS conference teams and two teams that would beat the majority of BCS conference foes in the country.

OUTLOOK

Mike Riley always seems to field a competitive team and this year should be no exception. The Beavers are blessed with a pair of prime time playmakers in the Rodgers brothers and they should ease the transition at quarterback. With a veteran group of linemen up front, the offense should continue to be one of the most productive in the Pac Ten.

But they’re not just going to be a team that outscores opponents as the D-Line and secondary both look to be much more effective groups than last year. With a better pass rush and a much more experienced group of defensive backs, expect to see a stout Oregon State pass defense this fall.

While this team appears to be as talented as the last two groups that nearly made it to the Rose Bowl, they also have to navigate a significantly tougher schedule. Both Boise State and TCU will be ranked in the top ten when the Beavers play them in September and both games are on enemy turf. Furthermore, the Pac Ten is going to be as deep as ever, so trips to Stanford, Arizona and Washington will very difficult road games.

This team is certainly capable of winning the conference championship, especially with the likelihood of a two loss team finishing atop the standings, but I think that Riley’s team is going to have trouble with one of the country’s toughest schedules. The overall attrition from their September slate combined with the difficulty of breaking in a new quarterback could result in a few early losses that will be difficult to recover in the conference race. While this is definitely a bowl team, I will be slightly surprised if they spend New Year’s Day in Pasadena. The Oregon State Beavers are my pick to tie with three other teams for 4th place in the Pac Ten in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 7-5 (5-4 Pac Ten)