2010 Oregon Ducks Football Preview

2009 Results: 10-3, Pac Ten Champions, Lost Rose Bowl vs. Ohio State

Head Coach: Chip Kelly (2nd year, 10-3 Overall)

Home Venue: Autzen Stadium (54,000)

The Ducks endured the most up and down year in the history of Oregon football in 2009. Chip Kelly’s first season as the Head Coach began with an upset defeat at the hands of Boise State, a loss that became a national sensation when star tailback LeGarrette Blount sucker punched a Boise State player after the game and was subsequently suspended for most of the season. However, from that inauspicious beginning rose one of the greatest teams in school history. The Ducks went on a seven game winning streak after the BSU loss, including wins over three ranked teams, and the Civil War showdown against archrival Oregon State became a winner take all clash for the Pac Ten Championship and a berth in the Rose Bowl. Oregon emerged victorious on home turf thanks to the high-powered running game led by QB Jeremiah Masoli and breakout star tailback LeMichael James.

Unfortunately, that was the pinnacle for the Ducks, as their first Rose Bowl appearance resulted in a 26-17 loss at the hands of the Big Ten Champions, Ohio State. While there was a lot of joy in a 10-3 season that saw Oregon win the Pac Ten and finish ranked 11th nationally, Duck fans didn’t really get a chance to enjoy those accomplishments as off-field issues almost immediately added a black eye to a program still dealing with the fallout from Blount’s nationally televised punch. Starting tailback James was suspended for a game after domestic violence issues and a lot of other lesser known players got into trouble as well. However, the biggest blow came when star QB Masoli pled guilty to robbing a fraternity house on campus and Kelly eventually kicked him off of the team after a marijuana charge. 2010 was supposed to be the year that a very veteran Oregon squad played a big part in the National Championship chase, but that is very much in doubt without Masoli at the controls of their prolific offense. Can the Ducks overcome the offseason turmoil and repeat as Pac Ten Champions this season?

OFFENSE

Oregon’s offense was the primary reason for their exceptional season in 2009. The Ducks had the highest scoring attack in the Pac Ten, putting up 36 points per contest while racking up a league-high 232 yards per game on the ground! The vast majority of that group is back, but there are two major losses: 1st Team All-Pac Ten tight end Ed Dickson was a 3rd round pick by the Ravens and QB Masoli is now playing at Ole Miss. Can the Ducks replace two of their stars and keep the offense humming in 2010?

The good news is that the running backs will be among the strongest in the conference. Now a sophomore, James (1,546 yards, 14 TDs in ‘09) was the Pac Ten Player of the Year in 2010 and he should have another huge season after serving his suspension for the opening game. There is also great depth on hand, as sophomore Kenjon Barner (366 yards, 3 TDs) and elite true frosh Lache Seastrunk will also carry some of the load.

Those three should find plenty of room to run behind one of the country’s best offensive lines, a group which returns all five starters. Left tackle Bo Thran, one of three seniors, was a 1st Team All-Pac Ten selection last year and sophomore guard Carson York was a 3rd Team Freshman All-American! Expect another monster year from a great O-Line.

But the offensive front isn’t the only place that will be fully loaded on this offense, as the receivers are just as experienced. Seniors Jeff Maehl (53 catches, 696 yards, 6 TDs) and D.J. Davis (23 catches, 233 yards, 2 TDs) will pair with junior Lavasier Tuinei (24 catches, 217 yards) to form a very effective group of pass catchers in the Oregon’s run-first attack. Maehl in particular was the team’s top receiver last season and he will be a big play threat this fall.

There’s really only one question mark about this offense: Quarterback. Oregon has been blessed with two perfect fits at quarterback in the last three years, as Dennis Dixon and Masoli were excellent runners, adept play-fakers and solid passers. Now, the Ducks have to chose between senior Nate Costa (who led them to an underwhelming win at UCLA and has tore two ACLs in his college career) and sophomore Darron Thomas, who redshirted last fall. While both players will surely pilot an effective attack, it seems unlikely that either will match the ridiculous play of either Dixon or Masoli and that could slow down the Oregon attack.

Overall, this extremely veteran offense is going to be a major power in 2010. They’re simply too good at tailback and on the O-Line to not continue their great run of success, no pun intended. While I believe that Thomas and Costa will do a good job running Kelly’s proven system, neither is going to be on par with the last two starters and that could reduce this offense from being elite to only being very good. Either way, the Ducks are still going to be one of the highest scoring offenses in the Pac Ten this year.

DEFENSE

But the offense wasn’t the only reason that Oregon won the Pac Ten in 2009. The Ducks finished 4th in the Pac Ten in scoring defense while leading the league in sacks! With the vast majority of that group back for another run, can the Oregon defense perform even better this season?

The D-Line will be anchored by a pair of seniors, as DE Kenny Rowe (43 tackles, 11.5 sacks) and DT Brandon Bair (45 tackles, 2 sacks) are two of the best linemen in the league. Rowe was the team’s top pass rusher last season and should continue to be a force off of the edge. But the big news in the spring was the emergence of sophomore Dion Jordan, a former tight end who was called the team’s biggest surprise by defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti. The only downside to this group is their lack of size, which could be a problem against the run. However, if Jordan translates his production into a strong season, this group could be the catalyst for another exceptional year rushing the quarterback.

The linebackers will be a big boost against the run, as seniors Casey Matthews (81 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT, 2 nd Team All-Pac Ten) and Spencer Paysinger (81 tackles, 1.5 sacks) are two of the top defenders in the conference. This is a mobile group that will rank among the league’s best with their senior leadership.

But the strongest part of the ‘D’ will undoubtedly be the pass defense. Already boosted by a front seven that will harass quarterbacks, the Duck defensive backs are exceptional in their own right. Sophomore safety John Boyett (90 tackles, 3 INT) was the team’s leading tackler as a freshman and was named to the 1st Team Freshman All-American squad for his efforts. Along with versatile junior Eddie Pleasant (54 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT), Boyett will anchor the back end of a great aerial defense. On top of those two, the Ducks have three strong cornerbacks in senior Talmadge Jackson (50 tackles, 4 INT), junior Javes Lewis (78 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT) and sophomore Cliff Harris (19 tackles, 1INT). That depth will be a major asset in the pass-happy Pac Ten.

Overall, the only potential weakness in this group is their lack of size up front. However, Oregon is highly mobile on the D-Line and their linebackers run extremely well to the football. Furthermore, their talented secondary will give them the ability to cheat up to the line of scrimmage to help out against the run. With one of the conference’s top pass rushes, the pass defense will surely be excellent this season. Finally, the offense’s run-heavy strategy will also lessen the amount of time that this defense will be on the field, meaning they’ll be rested and ready for opposing offenses. Expect the Ducks to have one of the Pac Ten’s best defenses.

> Buy Oregon Ducks apparel and Oregon hats and find a great selection of college Fathead helmets online through College Sports Fans!

SCHEDULE

Oregon’s non-conference schedule is a bit of a letdown after the last two seasons’ worth of excellent non-league foes. While a trip to Tennessee is impressive on paper, the Vols are definitely not one of the best teams in the SEC this fall and that should be an easy win. Furthermore, the other two opponents are New Mexico and D-1AA Portland State and both of those games come at home. It is extremely likely that the Ducks will win all three games outside of league play.

Their Pac Ten schedule looks tougher on paper than it will be in reality. Oregon has five road games, highlighted by trips to USC, Cal and archrival Oregon State. The silver lining is that their other two trips are to Arizona State, who they’ve beaten five straight years, and minnow Washington State. Seeing how Oregon is 7-3 on the road in Pac Ten play during the last two seasons, they should be confident of a winning away record. With two off weeks splitting the Pac Ten slate into three segments, this is about as favorable as the Ducks could hope for in a very deep league.

OUTLOOK

Despite a few high-profile losses, there shouldn’t be any question that Oregon has a great shot at defending their conference championship. In a year where the league is very balanced, the Ducks only have to face three contenders on the road and that already puts them at an advantage.

Furthermore, this is one of the deepest teams in the Pac Ten. The offense has a plethora of tailbacks, the O-Line is extremely stout and the wide receivers will ease the transition at quarterback. While the Ducks might not be quite as explosive as the last three seasons where they averaged 39 points per game, this is still one of the league’s best attacks.

And Oregon might not need to be as explosive this fall because their defense looks to be an improved group from last year. The Ducks will have significantly more experience and that will be a big boost, especially in the defensive backfield. While I’m concerned about their run defense against bigger lines, there is no doubt that this defense is good enough to repeat as Pac Ten Champions.

However, Oregon will not be my pick to win the country’s deepest conference this fall. The last two seasons have seen the Rose Bowl chase come down to the Civil War and both years have resulted in a Duck win that broke their archrival’s heart. This time, I think it will be Oregon that enters the game with a hard-earned 6-2 league record and a championship on the line. On the road against the revenge-minded Beavers, karma will come back to bite the Ducks and Kelly’s team will have a 2nd straight Rose Bowl berth torn from their grasp in excruciating fashion, leaving them headed for the Holiday Bowl instead. The Oregon Ducks are my pick to finish 3rd in the Pac Ten Conference in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 9-3 (6-3 Pac Ten)