2010 North Carolina Tar Heels Football Preview

2009 Results: 8-5, Lost Meineke Bowl vs. Pitt

Head Coach: Butch Davis (4th Year, 20-18 @ UNC, 71-38 Overall)

Home Venue: Kenan Memorial Stadium (60,000), Chapel Hill, North Carolina

North Carolina gained a lot of notoriety this spring when the NFL draft gurus declared that this team could have as many as five 1st round picks in the 2011 draft! Coming off of consecutive eight win campaigns, a lot of pundits subsequently listed UNC as a potential darkhorse National Championship contender and the Heels were widely considered to be one of the favorites in the Coastal Division.

However, that positive press quickly turned into a nightmare as two of those elite players, wide receiver Greg Little and defensive tackle Marvin Austin, reportedly made an offseason trip to South Beach on an agent’s dime. That’s a major NCAA violation and it is likely that both players will be suspended for the entire season. Losing both players will be a crippling blow for the Tar Heels, as I believe that each player was UNC’s most important player on their respective side of the football. Can Head Coach Butch Davis rally his team and still compete for the Coastal Division crown?

OFFENSE

How important was Little to UNC’s offense? Last season, he led the team in catches (62) and receiving yards (724) while finishing 2nd in total TDs (6) and 3rd in rushing yards! The make matters worse, spring practice showed that he was going to be used in a similar role to Clemson’s C.J. Spiller, so he would have clearly been the #1 option for the North Carolina attack. Considering that the Tar Heel offense finished 10 th in the ACC in scoring last year, the loss of their best playmaker is going to be crippling.

The good news is that there will still be nine returning starters, even with the loss of Little. The returning receivers saw a lot of action last fall and sophomores Erik Highsmith (425 yards, 2 TDs) and Jerhanie Boyd (214 yards, 4 TDs) are very talented. Boyd will see a major increase in his workload in Little’s absence as he is going to be a big play threat. Also keep an eye on senior tight end Zack Pianalto (314 yards, 1 TD), who is the school’s all time leader in catches among tight ends. While this group is clearly diminished without Little, there is some very good young talent on hand.

At tailback, the senior tandem of Ryan Houston (713 yards, 9 TDs) and Shaun Draughn (567 yards, 1 TD) should have another productive campaign this fall, especially running behind such solid blockers. The O-Line is going to be one of the ACC’s stronger units, as four starters are back from 2009. However, it will also a young line since two of those returnees are sophomores and true freshman James Hurst appeared to earn a starting spot at tackle after enrolling early.

But the most interesting position to watch this season will be at quarterback. Senior Tyler Yates (2,136 yards, 14 TDs, 15 INT) has started for the majority of the last two seasons, but he has been a lightning rod for criticism from the Tar Heel fans after throwing almost as many interceptions as touchdowns during that time period. He’ll be pushed heavily by freshman Bryn Renner, who was very impressive in the spring. Regardless who ends up under center, I think that UNC will have a better season passing the football: Either Yates will be pushed to perform better by Renner or the talented freshman will take over.

Overall, there is no way that the Tar Heels are going to easily overcome the loss of Little’s multidimensional talents. He was going to be a threat receiving and running this fall and it will be next to impossible to account for a future 1st rounder’s production. However, I think that North Carolina’s young receivers could blossom in his absence and Boyd’s talents are very similar to Little’s. Furthermore, the offensive line should be much improved, even with a true freshman at tackle, and I think they will open a lot of holes in the running game. While I am worried that Hurst will struggle against some of the division’s elite defenders in pass protection, I think that UNC could have a more effective passing game with better quarterbacking. That said, I think that the loss of Little will be too much to overcome and that means another finish in the bottom half of the conference in scoring this fall.

DEFENSE

While Little’s loss will be devastating for the UNC offense, the loss of DT Marvin Austin shouldn’t be quite as earth-shattering for the defense. While Austin is an elite lineman that would have anchored one of the country’s toughest run defenses, the Tar Heel defense has significantly more talent across the board. After all, they finished 2nd in the ACC in scoring defense last fall, allowing 17 points per game, and allowed the fewest yards per contest in the league! With three other potential 1st round picks on this side of the football, this should still be a great defense.

Austin’s loss will be felt up front but there is still a ton of talent on hand. Junior defensive end Robert Quinn (52 tackles, 11 sacks) was a 1st Team All-ACC choice in 2009 after finishing 2 nd in the league in sacks and is a 1st round talent in his own right. He will be paired with junior Quinton Coples (22 tackles, 5 sacks) and these two will provide a vicious pass rush. Meanwhile, the tackles should still be solid because Davis has recruited the position extremely well. Junior Tydreke Powell (24 tackles, 2 sacks) is similar in size to Austin and he had a breakout spring, so perhaps there will be little impact in the middle. While there is no doubt that UNC would have been better this season with Austin’s elite talent inside, this will still be one of the conference’s best D-Lines without him.

North Carolina is also loaded at linebacker, where all three starters are back. Senior Quan Sturdivant (79 tackles, 1 sack) was a 1st Team All-ACC pick while classmate Bruce Carter (65 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) was a 2nd Team pick as well! With talented sophomore Kevin Reddick (45 tackles), who started as a true freshman, finishing out the trifecta, this should be an absolutely loaded group.

As good as their front seven is, I think that North Carolina’s secondary is the strength of this defense. Four senior starters are back from the ACC’s 3rd rated pass defense and that really doesn’t do this group justice: The faced the 3rd most pass attempts of any team in the ACC due to their suffocating front and still were rated among the league’s best aerial defenses! Safeties Deunta Williams (47 tackles, 6 INT, 1 st Team All-ACC) and Da’Norris Searcy (35 tackles, 1 INT, 2nd Team All-ACC) were both postseason all-league picks and should be one of the country’s best tandems. The cornerbacks are equally impressive, as Kendrick Burney (52 tackles, 5 INT) was also a 1st Team All-ACC choice and Charles Brown (66 tackles, 3 INT) finished 2nd on the team in tackles. This is without a doubt one of the top ten pass defenses in the entire nation.

Even without an elite talent like Marvin Austin, this is one of the best defenses in the country. Their defensive line will be a wall against the run and they can easily generate a strong pass rush with just the front four. That pass rush should greatly aid their already-excellent pass defense, which should be one of the country’s most effective units this season. Throw in their great set of linebackers to support the run and there are simply no weak spots on this defense. The Tar Heels are the favorites to allow the fewest points of any ACC team in 2010.

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SCHEDULE

The non-conference schedule is going to be a roller coaster for North Carolina. They open up the season in a national showcase game in Atlanta against similar-minded LSU, a game that might end up with a 6-3 final score! Their other tough non-conference trip is a late September visit to Rutgers and their two home non-ACC games come against East Carolina and D-1AA William & Mary.

In ACC play, UNC has to play the best two teams in the Atlantic Division, as they host Clemson and travel to Florida State. In Coastal play, the host two of their three major challengers for the division crown as Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech come to Chapel Hill. The Heels also have to navigate one of the toughest stretches in the entire country as they play Miami, Florida State and Virginia Tech in the span of four weeks! Overall, this schedule includes ten games against BCS Conference opponents, a difficult conference draw and only six home games. This is a very challenging schedule.

OUTLOOK

This season had the potential to be special for North Carolina before two of their best players were suspended. What was going to be different this year compared to the last two seasons was that the offense would finally be able to hold its own weight and the defense wouldn’t be relied upon as heavily to win every week. Without Little, I’m afraid that the offense isn’t going to be any more productive than it was last season and that means that their defense is going to have to shoulder most of the load once more.

Now that’s not a bad thing, because this defense is one of the country’s best units, but it also isn’t a formula that is going to push the Tar Heels into contention in the difficult ACC Coastal Division. When you have to compete with the likes of Miami and the Techs, you have to have a semi-productive offense. Without Little wreaking havoc on offense, 2010 is looking like a carbon copy of 2009, which saw an elite UNC defense carry a below average UNC offense to a respectable ACC record and eight wins overall.

In fact, the overall difficulty of this schedule leads me to believe that is exactly what is going to happen. While I think that UNC will go undefeated outside of league play and beat LSU, who has an even worse offense and doesn’t compare defensively, I think that ACC play will be tough to navigate. The Tar Heels have to play Miami and Florida State on the road while hosting Clemson, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. That means that UNC and Miami are the only two teams predicted to finish in the top half of the league that have to play every other team from that elite group! Without Little’s playmaking skills, UNC simply doesn’t have enough offense to compete for the ACC title and the North Carolina Tar Heels are my pick to finish 4 th in the ACC Coastal Division in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 8-4 (4-4 ACC)