2010 New Mexico Lobos Football Preview

2009 Results: 1-11, No Bowl

Head Coach: Mike Locksley (2nd year @ New Mexico, 1-11 Overall)

Home Venue: University Stadium (39,224), Albuquerque, New Mexico

It has been a sudden fall from grace for the Lobos. As recently as 2007, New Mexico won nine games, so last season’s 1-11 result under first year coach Mike Locksley was extremely painful. It was so bad that rumors swirled around Locksley being fired during his first year in charge! However, he is an elite recruiter who was responsible for acquiring most of the talent that took Illinois to the Rose Bowl in 2007 and he managed to put together a very strong class this February. Can Locksley begin to earn some success on the field as a Head Coach this season?

OFFENSE

New Mexico had the worst offense in the entire Mountain West last year, averaging barely over 16 points per game. Unfortunately, the Lobos start off 2010 behind the eight ball as it appears that they’ll be starting a freshman quarterback. True frosh Terean Austin or redshirt frosh Stump Godfrey were both brought in by Locksley and I expect both to see the field this season in Locksley’s favored high-tempo attack. That seems like a lot to ask from a pair of freshmen on a team coming off of a terrible campaign.

The theme of youth continues at the skill positions, where the top returning rusher (Demond Dennis) and pass catcher (Ty Kirk), are both sophomores. While both weren’t majorly productive last season, the youth movement is going to be the predominant theme this season in Albuquerque.

Luckily, there is a little bit more experience up front, though the Lobos only return two starters on the offensive line. However, the only truly veteran lineman is LT Byron Bell and Locksley’s recruiting efforts won’t likely bear fruit for a few more years as linemen generally take a while to develop. Unfortunately, this should still be a weak line.

After a miserable 2009 campaign transitioning to a no-huddle attack, there are still going to be a lot of growing pains this season for New Mexico. They’re chock full of underclassmen at the skill positions and will be playing behind a suspect line. While the Lobos probably won’t reach the lows of 2009’s scoring output, I will be not be surprised if they repeat their showing as the Mountain West’s worst offense.

DEFENSE

The offense’s poor performance wasn’t solely responsible for the Lobos’ 11 loss season as their defense allowed a league-worst 36 points per game! With those kinds of disappointing results, New Mexico needs some major improvement on all three levels.

Where things look the best is up front, where three upperclassmen starters return. The junior DE tandem of Johnathan Rainey (9.5 sacks last year) and Jaymar Latchison (4.5 sacks) is one of the best in the league and senior DT Pete Gardner is the anchor in the middle of a unit that will include a lot of highly touted Illinois transfers and top DT recruit Calvin Smith, who turned down Florida State and Georgia to come to New Mexico. This should be a very good line.

Middle linebacker Carmen Messina led the country in tackles with an incredible 162 tackles last season and should be one of the country’s leaders once more. He’s the only starter back at his position and should be the centerpiece of a much-improved run defense.

Where there is some concern is in the secondary, which gave up over 250 pass yards per game last season. The Lobos had major troubles forcing interceptions, finishing with a paltry seven on the season. Unfortunately, there are no Calvin Smith-level recruits in the secondary so it seems likely that New Mexico will struggle through the air once more, though the prospect of an improved pass rush should be a reason for optimism.

Even with a weak secondary, the Lobos will definitely show improvement against the run this year. While they’re not likely to all of a sudden jump into the league’s upper half, I will be surprised if they allow more than five touchdowns per game again in 2010.

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SCHEDULE

The schedule is also another major detraction for BYU’s young team. Their non-conference slate features a trip to Florida State and visits from Washington and Nevada, all three of whom could be ranked when the games are played. Furthermore, their MWC opener is against run-heavy Air Force, who will seriously test their new front seven. Finally, the Lobos only have six home games and have to travel to TCU, Utah and Air Force in league play! This is just a really tough schedule, especially with a young team.

OUTLOOK

The Lobos are undeniably talented, especially with the arrival of their nationally-ranked 2009 recruiting class. However, they are going to have to play a lot of those highly touted youngsters quickly and that is going to produce a lot of mistakes and growing pains, especially if Heaps is the starting quarterback. Furthermore, they have a brutal non-conference schedule and a front-loaded slate that could legitimately see them open up 0-4! While BYU should get their feet underneath themselves late in the year with a much easier lead-up to their visit to archrival Utah, the overwhelming youth of this team will be their undoing and this will be a rebuilding year in Provo.

PREDICTED RESULT: 6-6 (5-3 Mountain West)