2010 NC State Wolfpack Football Preview

2009 Results: 5-7, No Bowl

Head Coach: Tom O’Brien (4th year, 16-21 @ Wake Forest, 91-66 Overall)

Home Venue: Carter-Finlay Stadium (57,583), Raleigh, North Carolina

When Tom O’Brien arrived in Raleigh three years ago, fresh off of a decade of success at Boston College, hopes were extremely high that a quick turnaround was on its way to a program that has struggled for relevance since record-setting quarterback Phillip Rivers graduated. However, O’Brien has struggled to find a winning formula in these past three years and has only led one team to a bowl game. With a veteran offense and a recent run of success in recruiting, can the Wolfpack finally compete in the Atlantic Division?

OFFENSE

NC State’s offense was surprisingly productive last year, finishing 4th in the ACC in scoring at 30.3 points per game. This was largely the product of a very effective passing game, led by excellent junior quarterback Russell Wilson (3,027 pass yards, 260 rush yards, 35 total TDs, 11 INT). That said, Wilson actually had a down year compared to the expectations levied upon him after a high profile freshman season. What many believed hurt him in 2009 was his decision to play baseball in the spring (he is a future MLB draft pick) instead of working with his offense. However, I have trouble believing that he had a ‘down’ season when he threw for over 3,000 yards and 31 touchdowns!

I also think that the quality of his returning receivers will help him exceed those numbers this season. Senior wideouts Owen Spencer (30 catches, 765 yards, 6 TDs), Jarvis Williams (45 catches, 547 yards, 11 TDs) and Darrell Davis (25 catches, 380 yards, 1 TD) will combine with strong junior TE George Bryan (40 catches, 422 yards, 6 TDs) to give Wilson a very deep set of pass catching options. Spencer was the NCAA’s leader in yards per catch last season! I think that there is no way that this offense won’t move the ball through the air with great success this fall.

Where I am very concerned is the running game. Wilson is actually the team’s top returning rusher! However, freshman Brandon Barnes looked solid before injury ended his season early, allowing him to redshirt. The Pack simply didn’t have any dynamic runners last year (hence their 8 th place finish in the league) and this group could easily turn out to be more productive, especially as two of their highest rated recruits were tailbacks.

That assumes that the O-Line will come together quickly. Only two starters return this season and it is completely possible that this line could start three sophomores and a true freshman! While that freshman, Robert Crisp, was one of the country’s elite tackle recruits, anytime an O-Line is filled up with underclassmen, I am seriously concerned. This has to be one of the country’s least experienced lines and that could really crimp the offense’s potential production.

So how will this offense perform in 2010? With a set of receivers that goes four deep and a talented starting quarterback, the clear strength of this unit will be their passing game. While the O-Line is very inexperienced, Wilson is highly mobile and that will definitely help him avoid the pass rush. However, that same O-Line will be a liability, especially at opening holes in the running game. The Pack also has no experienced runners returning, though Barnes looked good in limited action last season and the incoming true freshmen could turn out to be valuable contributors. That said, the line’s limited experience is too big of a concern and that will stunt their growth. Overall, this will be a very good offense but they’re going to struggle to run the ball and protect Wilson.

DEFENSE

Things fell apart on defense last season for NC State, who tied Maryland for the worst defense in the conference, giving up 31 points per game. They also only managed 24 sacks, finishing in the lower half of the ACC. Can the Pack rebuild their defense this season with a very young team?

From the outset, I’m concerned. NC State’s defensive line doesn’t have a single returning starter this season! In fact, the only lineman who even ranked among the team’s top 20 tacklers last year was senior DE Michael Lemon, who was productive as a backup with 24 tackles and a sack. Much like their O-Line, this is one of the most inexperienced units in the entire country and that’s a very bad sign because inexperience generally equates to a poor run defense.

The good news is that the linebackers look much better as there is some serious depth. Junior Audi Cole (85 tackles, 4 sacks) led the team in tackles last season and classmates Dwayne Maddox (54 tackles) and Sterling Lucas (51 tackles) were very productive as well. On top of that, sophomore Terrell Manning (48 tackles, 1 INT) showed great promise last year and will certainly see the field extensively this fall. Finally, senior Nate Irving, who was great in 2008 before missing last season because of a horrific car crash, is healthy and ready to contribute, giving the Pack a very deep set of ‘backers.

Unfortunately, the linebackers are the only part of this defense than can boast about their depth, as the secondary looks to be very thin and inexperienced. Sophomore safeties Brandon Bishop (41 tackles) and Earl Wolff (51 tackles) combined for 12 starts last season and were productive in run support. At corner, classmate C.J. Wilson (21 tackles) also started half of last season and should progress as a full-time starter this fall. There is certainly a lot of talent on hand, but the Pack could legitimately start four sophomores this season and that much inexperience is a major concern.

The bottom line about this defense is that there is a severe lack of experience. The D-Line has to be completely rebuilt and only has one player that was more than a bit player in 2009. The secondary is the youngest in the entire ACC and I don’t think that they’ll even have a single upperclassman starter! While I like the depth that NC State has at linebacker, there are just too many unknowns everywhere else on defense for me to believe that this will be anything except a porous unit.

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SCHEDULE

The Wolfpack’s schedule is a decidedly mixed bag. Their non-conference run includes two games against C-USA opponents and they open up with D-1AA Western Carolina. While a mid-September clash with Cincinnati is a tough game, they host the Bearcats on a Thursday night, which is a huge advantage. Despite the strong probability of a 3-1 non-league mark, the ACC portion is much more daunting. NC State draws visits to Georgia Tech and UNC while hosting Virginia Tech! That’s just brutal as all three teams are legitimate contenders for the Coastal title! The one redeeming note is that the Cincy game isn’t their only home Thursday contest: They face Florida State in the same situation after a mid-season off week, leaving the Seminoles ripe for an upset.

OUTLOOK

There might not be a team in the ACC with weaker play in the trenches than the Pack. They have two starters back from nine positions on both sides of the football and that’s a major problem. Furthermore, they don’t have a remotely deep backfield on either side of the football: The tailbacks are completely unproven and the secondary isn’t far ahead of them.

However, there are some seriously strong points on this team. The aerial attack led by Wilson will be extremely dangerous and anytime you have a quarterback with four legitimate receivers, there is the potential for a lot of points to be scored. I also think that the exceptionally deep set of linebackers on this team will help solidify what surely will be an out of sorts defense in the early going and that could be enough to get NC State into the bowl picture. While I strongly believe that the sheer inexperience of this team will hold them back from being a factor in the Atlantic Division chase, I think that the Pack will do enough to get bowl eligible. North Carolina State is my choice to finish 4th in the ACC Atlantic Division.

PREDICTED RESULT: 6-6 (3-5 ACC)