2010 Missouri Tigers Football Preview

2009 Results: 8-5, Lost Texas Bowl vs. Navy

Head Coach: Gary Pinkel (10th year, 67-46 @ Missouri, 140-83-3 Overall)

Home Venue: Faurot Field (68,349), Columbia, Missouri

Missouri surprised a lot of people with their eight win campaign last fall. I was one of them, as I expected the Tigers to struggle with a rebuilt offense after losing superstar quarterback Chase Daniels. However, their offense exceeded my expectations under the guidance of sophomore Blaine Gabbert. On top of that, I think everyone overlooked Missouri’s defense, which had a fine campaign. This fall, the Tigers are significantly more experienced and are generally considered the only legitimate threat to Nebraska in the Big XII North. Can the Missouri win the division for the 3rd time in 4 years?

OFFENSE

The aforementioned Gabbert had a great campaign in his first year starting, throwing for nearly 3,600 yards and 24 TDs against only 9 interceptions! What was more impressive was that he played tough through multiple injuries and I have no doubt that he will be one of the league’s most productive quarterbacks in the conference this fall.

Where I have some concerns is at wide receiver, as the Tigers have to replace their top two wideouts from last season. They will especially miss Danario Alexander, who was the most productive wide receiver in the entire conference in the country in 2009 with more than 1,700 receiving yards! The good news is that juniors Wes Kemp (37 catches, 458 yards, 2 TDs) and Jerrell Jackson (23 catches, 418 yards, 3 TDs) should prove to be a good tandem in Missouri’s notoriously pass-happy offense. That said, this offense has been blessed with the great playmaking of Alexander and Jeremy Maclin before him for the last three years and I don’t see anyone capable of filling those huge shoes, meaning that the passing numbers could shrink.

But the Tigers aren’t just a one dimensional offense. Senior tailback Derrick Washington (865 rush yards, 26 catches, 156 receiving yards, 10 total TDs) is a former 1,000 yard rusher and he leads a deep set of runners that should have another strong season. My confidence in their performance is buoyed by a solid O-Line that features four returning starters. I think that the tailbacks will find plenty of room to run this season and Gabbert’s protection should afford him plenty of time to throw.

There can little doubt about the Missouri offense at this point: Last season was a ‘down’ year and they still scored 29 points per contest! What is especially impressive is that it was the first year since 2004 that the Tigers scored less than 30 points per game. Gabbert might be the best quarterback in the conference this season and he has enough of a supporting cast to lead the Tiger offense to a very productive campaign.

DEFENSE

The Missouri defense is often overlooked up against the recent run of elite offenses, but this unit was a very big surprise last fall. The Tigers allowed fewer yards on the ground and through the air compared to 2008 while also improving their scoring defense. What was particularly impressive about this unit was the fact that this turnaround came with only four returning starters! That number doubles this season and expectations are significantly higher for a much more seasoned Missouri defense in 2010.

The biggest loss on defense is linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, who was a 1st round draft pick in April. However, twelve of the top fifteen tacklers from last season are back and the linebacker position is still very strong. Senior Andrew Gachkar (80 tackles, 3 sacks) and junior Will Ebner (78 tackles, 3.5 sacks) are the team’s top two returning tacklers after finishing 2nd and 3rd in tackles last fall and they should combine to be one of the top tackling tandems in the Big XII.

I have faith that the linebackers will be very impressive this fall, not only because of their own skill but also because of the solid D-Line in front of them. Sophomore DE Aldon Smith (64 tackles, 11.5 sacks) was the Big XII Defensive Freshman of the Year last season after emerging as a pass rushing terror and I think he’s in for another great season. Meanwhile, junior DT Dominique Hamilton (46 tackles, 1 sack) is a massive body in the middle of the line and he should be a rock against the run. This will be a very good line with those two leading the way.

But the best part of this defense has to be the secondary. The defensive backs are chock full of experience as all four starters are seniors. A cornerback, Carl Gettis (61 tackles) and Kevin Rutland (47 tackles, 2 INT) are a strong starting pair that helped the pass defense allow nearly 40 fewer yards per game through the air last season. Meanwhile, the safety tandem of Jasper Simmons (73 tackles, 1 INT) and Jarrell Harrison (47 tackles, 1 INT) should continue to impress in their second season as a pairing. The only concern about this unit is the fact that they weren’t particularly great at getting their hands on interceptions last fall but they should be great in coverage and that will be plenty to create a strong aerial defense.

Overall, I’m pretty impressed with this defense. The front seven are going to be solid against the run and their D-Line is going to be able to generate a good pass rush with Smith coming off of the edge. I also like the defensive backs, all of whom are seniors. The level of experience on this defense is impressive and I fully expect to see them post better scoring numbers and more turnovers despite losing their star linebacker. This is clearly the #2 defense in the North Division.

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SCHEDULE

The non-conference schedule is going to be a near cakewalk for the Tigers. The season opener in St. Louis against Illinois has become one of the most one-sided rivalries in recent memory, as Mizzou has won every single meeting since they began playing in St. Louis! The rest of the schedule features home games against non-BCS conference opponents and there is a strong likelihood of a 4-0 record outside of the conference.

In Big XII play, the Tigers only have three home conference games as their matchup against Kansas will close the season in Kansas City. Things get tougher as their draw from the South Division features both Texas A&M and Oklahoma. To make matters worse, those games come in the two weeks before the all-important league showdown against Nebraska, giving Mizzou one of the most difficult three week stretches of any Big XII team in conference play. The good news is that aside from that stretch, this isn’t a very difficult schedule.

OUTLOOK

There is no question that this Missouri team is a legitimate threat to win the Big XII North this fall. They are strong in the trenches on both sides of the football, so no one is going to push the Tigers around. That strength on the line of scrimmage is going to make the Mizzou defense one of the better run barricades in the Big XII and their pass rush will aid their aerial defense as well.

The good news continues with the offense, where there are plenty of talented skill position players. But everything comes back to quarterback Blaine Gabbert, who is certainly talented enough to lead the Tigers to a conference championship. I think that Missouri is in for a very strong season and they are certainly a contender for the division title. However, they have a brutal three week stretch at midseason that I think will be too much for the Tigers to overcome, especially as the final game during that stretch is the all-important showdown at Nebraska. I think that Missouri will fall at the hands of the Huskers and finish 2nd in the Big XII North Division. However, the Tigers have a great shot at winning ten games for the 3rd time in four season.

PREDICTED RESULT: 9-3 (5-3 Big XII)