2010 Mississippi State Bulldogs Football Preview

2009 Results: 5-7, No Bowl

Head Coach: Dan Mullen (2nd year @ MSU, 5-7 Overall)

Home Venue: Davis Wade Stadium (55,082) Starkville, Mississippi

Many people felt that Mississippi State made a great hire in 2008 when they snagged Dan Mullen away from Florida. The coordinator who was Urban Meyer’s right hand man for nearly a decade, Mullen is considered an offensive mastermind. His first year in Starkville was widely considered a success as the Bulldogs were competitive in virtually every game and capped of the season with an upset victory over rival Mississippi. Can Mullen take the next step and lead his team to a bowl game this fall?

OFFENSE

Mullen’s arrival was felt immediately on offense, as MSU’s scoring jumped by an average of more than 10 points per game! Now, a large reason for this success was the decision to ride 1st Team All-SEC tailback Anthony Dixon to the league’s best running game: The Dawgs averaged nearly 230 yards per game on the ground! However, Dixon is now a San Francisco 49er and the look of the attack will be very different this fall.

At quarterback, junior Chris Relf (who led MSU to the win over Ole Miss) is competing with redshirt freshman Tyler Russell to start under center. Relf is a dual threat passer who ran for 500 yards last season and he is the favorite to start, though it seems likely both will see the field this season. After a miserable season from starter Tyson Lee (he threw 14 picks against only 4 TDs), it seems highly like that Mississippi State will get much better quarterbacking this fall.

Unfortunately, the lack of an effective passing game in 2009 means that there is a dearth of experience at wide receiver. Sophomore Chad Bumphis (32 catches, 375 yards, 4 TDs) led the team in all receiving categories as a true freshman and he is expected to be their top receiver again this season. Junior tight end Marcus Green (27 catches, 306 yards, 3 TDs) also had a decent year and could be a good safety valve but there is virtually no experience behind these two. Needless to say, the passing game is a big concern.

At the same time, MSU has to replace the SEC’s 2nd leading rusher from last season from a group of inexperienced backs. In fact, the top two tailbacks on the depth chart coming out of spring were JUCO junior Vick Ballard and redshirt freshman Montrell Conner, neither of whom has recorded a single carry in a Mississippi State uniform. With such green backs, it is highly unlikely that they will come close to matching Dixon’s production from last year.

The one bright spot is the offensive line, which returns four upperclassmen starters that blocked the way for the league’s top running game. The highest regarded player is senior left tackle Derek Sherrod, who was a 2nd Team All-SEC selection last year. While there is massive inexperience at the skill positions all around them, this unit should help accelerate everyone else’s learning curve by opening holes to run and protecting the passer.

Overall, this will be a very interesting unit to watch develop this season. Everyone is now in the 2nd year of Mullen’s system and things will come much more naturally on the field. Furthermore, the veteran O-Line should give the new quarterback (likely Relf) plenty of time to make smart decisions with the football. If the unproven backs can power a decent rushing attack, then this could turn out to be a respectable offense. But let’s keep some perspective here: Even with last season’s great improvement, MSU still only finished 8th in the SEC in scoring and this group will be pressed to match that production this fall. That said, don’t underestimate Mullen’s coaching abilities on offense because he has always led a productive attack.

DEFENSE

There isn’t as much built-in credit for the defensive coaching staff as the Bulldogs were forced to make a change in the offseason when coordinator Carl Torbush left for Kansas. That is an unfortunate setback because it means that the MSU defenders will have to learn their 3rd scheme in as many years. Can they overcome the change and improve upon an 11th place finish in scoring defense last season?

The good news is that Mississippi State has a very stout line. Senior defensive end Pernell McPhee (56 tackles, 5 sacks) was a 2nd Team All-SEC selection and is a strong pass rusher. Meanwhile, sophomore Fletcher Cox (29 tackles, 1 sack) was impressive as a true freshman playing defensive tackle in the vicious SEC West and he will only get better with age and added size. Speaking of which, enormous JUCO transfer James Carmon, who is 6’7” and 350 pounds, should immediately strengthen the run defense next to Cox as he might be the conference’s largest player. This is a very deep unit that should be significantly stronger this fall.

At linebacker, seniors K.J. Wright (82 tackles, 2 sacks) and Chris White (75 tackles) are the team’s top two returning stoppers from last season. While MSU will miss leading tackler Jamar Chaney, who was drafted in the 7th round in April, the remaining two should ensure a tough run defense playing behind a much improved line.

One very underrated aspect of Mississippi State’s defense last season was the ability of their defensive backs to get their hands on a lot of interceptions. The great news is that the vast majority of the contributors to that group (who were mostly underclassmen in 2009) are back for another go at it this fall! The safety tandem of junior Charles Mitchell (64 tackles, 4 INT) and sophomore Johnthan Banks (33 tackles, 4 INT) proved to be a great pair of playmakers and Banks’ performance against Florida on national TV, where he returned two Tim Tebow passes for touchdowns, was a star-making night. However, sophomore cornerback Corey Broomfield (19 tackles, 6 INT) was the biggest ball hawk of them all and his exceptional debut earned him a spot on the SEC’s All-Freshman squad. While this is still a young group that might make mistakes, they have some of the best ball skills in the entire conference.

Overall, the Bulldog defense could be the surprise of the SEC West this fall. Their D-Line is going to be as tough as any in the division, their linebackers are experienced and their secondary knows how to make plays. While the ability of the D-Line to generate a pass rush and the transition to a new scheme should temper the expectations of any overzealous MSU fans, this could be the SEC’s most improved defense this year.

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SCHEDULE

Speaking of tempering expectations, Mississippi State’s schedule is definitely a comedown for Dawg fans dreaming of a darkhorse division run. MSU draws favorites Georgia and Florida out of the East and they are the only West team to have the misfortune of playing both this fall. There are also two very difficult stretches on this schedule: The first begins in September and features Auburn, LSU and Georgia in a three week span while the other concludes the season at Alabama and archrival Ole Miss with a home game against Arkansas sandwiched in between. While the non-conference portion features three patsy opponents, it also features a trip to C-USA favorite Houston, who beat the Bulldogs in Starkville last fall. Needless to say, this is a very difficult slate for MSU.

OUTLOOK

But even with a difficult schedule, I’m optimistic that Mississippi State can still make a run at the postseason. Home tilts against UAB, Memphis and D-1AA Alcorn State should get them halfway there, meaning that they only need to match last year’s 3-5 SEC record to go bowling this fall. The league home schedule is also favorable as the Bulldogs host Auburn on a Thursday night early in the season and receive a well-timed visit from Kentucky (who will be finishing a brutal stretch) later in the year. If they pull both of those games out, they’re only one upset in conference play away from getting to a bowl game!

With the depth and skill returning on defense, there is no question that side of the football is more than good enough to hold up their end of the bargain in conference. That means that the offense, Mullen’s specialty, is going to decide whether this team gets to play a 13th game. The key to this their success will be the performance of their tailback tandem, who are tasked with replacing Dixon’s excellent numbers in spite of their own inexperience. In the end, I’m going to trust that a strong spring showing will carry over into the fall and Ballard and Conner should find room to run behind a strong offensive line. That means that Mississippi State will finish the regular season with six wins and play in a bowl game for the first time under Dan Mullen. With that in mind, I don’t think that MSU fans will care that the Mississippi State Bulldogs are my choice to finish last in the SEC West because they’ll be too busy daydreaming about tailgating before the Dawgs kick off in the Independence Bowl this winter.

PREDICTED RESULT: 6-6 (3-5 SEC)