2010 Mississippi Rebels Football Preview

2009 Results: 9-4, Won Cotton Bowl vs. Oklahoma State

Head Coach: Houston Nutt (3rd year, 18-8 @ Ole Miss, 129-78 Overall)

Home Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (60,580) Oxford, Mississippi

The Rebel renaissance under Houston Nutt continued in 2009, as Ole Miss reaffirmed their status as a dangerous 2nd tier team in the SEC West. While the season was initially sullied by astronomical expectations and a run of illness in September, the Res showed that they are loaded with talent and were not a flash in the pan in 2008.

However, there will be some serious changes this fall. Quarterback Jevan Snead made the foolish decision to turn pro and went undrafted, leaving the Rebels without the quarterback who guided them to their best two year stretch since Archie Manning! On top of that, almost every major offensive contributor has to be replaced as only three starters are back from last fall. Can Mississippi overcome the loss of half of their starting lineup, including four NFL draft picks, to return to the postseason in 2010?

OFFENSE

While Snead (2,632 yards, 20 TDs, 20 INT in ‘09) was widely expected to be the premier player on the Rebel offense in 2009, it was actually tailback Dexter McCluster (1,169 rush yards, 44 catches, 520 receiving yards. 11 total TDs) that become the team’s MVP. McCluster was a playmaker-of-all-trades for the Rebels and his explosiveness and versatility will be sorely missed this fall. On top of the loss of McCluster, Snead’s departure can’t be overlooked: His miserable 2009 campaign shouldn’t negate his obvious talent or his excellent 2008 season and there is no question he would have been one of the conference’s best quarterbacks this season were he still in Red and Blue.

So who will replace all of that production? After spring practice, the starter at quarterback was sophomore Nate Stanley, who played sparingly last fall. However, Nutt went looking for another quarterback in the summer due to a lack of depth and he has apparently convinced disgraced Oregon star Jeremiah Masoli (who led the Ducks to the Rose Bowl last year) to play his final season of eligibility in Oxford. This is going to be very interesting to watch play out because you have to wonder how the rest of the team will react to a ‘hired gun’ like Masoli coming on for just one season. On top of that, Masoli excelled in a completely different system than the Rebels have run the last two years and you have to wonder if he will be able to handle anything beyond the ‘Wildcat’ offense this season at Mississippi. Either way, I will say this: It seems extremely unlikely that the Rebels will throw so many interceptions this fall after Snead led the country in picks and that reduction in turnovers can only be good for the attack. After all, replacing his talent won’t be easy but his production wasn’t particularly impressive.

On top of the quarterback uncertainty, the passing game is going to be a concern with a death of experience at receiver. Senior Markeith Summers (17 catches, 394 yards, 4 TDs) is the most veteran returnee and there is not a lot of depth around hm. That is particularly tough as sophomore Pat Patterson, who was expected to start after playing as a true frosh last year, was thrown off the team during the summer. That means that the Ole Miss passing game is going to be one of the most inexperienced in the entire conference and the potential lack of balance on offense is a big concern.

At running back, junior Brandon Bolden (614 rush yards, 20 catches, 209 receiving yards, 5 total TDs) is the most proven player on the entire offense. He actually started a number of games last year since McCluster wasn’t purely a runner and should be a strong #1 tailback. With good young depth behind him, the Rebels should have a decent rush game in 2010.

Unfortunately, the offensive line is going to be less effective than the veteran unit that paved the way last fall. Three multi-year starters are gone, including an NFL draft pick, and there is precious little experience taking their place. The good news is that junior left tackle Bradley Sowell will be returning after proving his ability to protect the blindside in 2009, so that is a good sign for the new signal callers. Considering that sophomore Bobby Massie started down the stretch last fall, the Rebels should have a solid pair of tackles. However, the interior of their line is a huge concern and true frosh Evan Swindell, who arrived on campus early, was actually listed as the #1 center after spring practice. While Nutt has a great track record at putting together strong offensive lines, this is one of the greenest units he has ever had to work with. The bright spot is that a weak early schedule should give them some time to gel.

Overall, this is the least experienced offense in the SEC. Now, I don’t want to mistake inexperienced for ineffectiveness, but it is very difficult to build an entire offense from scratch. With the concerns about the interior linemen, a thin group of wideouts and the potentially tumultuous quarterback battle between Stanley and Masoli on the horizon, I’m not optimistic that the Rebels will field anything more than a one-dimensional offense focused on the running game. This could be one of the SEC’s weakest units in 2010.

DEFENSE

Things look a lot better on defense. Ole Miss finished 4 th in the SEC in scoring defense last fall, holding opponents to a paltry 17.7 points per contest! While that number is slightly skewed by a schedule that was among the weakest in the country outside of conference play, there is no doubt that this was a well-coached and talented group.

Up front, three senior starters return from last season’s tough run defense. Defensive tackles Jerrell Powe (34 tackles, 3 sacks) and Lawon Scott (24 tackles) are both enormous men and could be a dominant force in the middle of the line. That will leave DE Kentrell Lockett (39 tackles, 5 sacks) to face a lot of one-on-one matchups while rushing the passer and that could allow him to have a breakout campaign. While the Rebs will miss three graduated DEs that combined for 15 sacks last season, this looks like one of the SEC’s toughest lines against the run and I think they’ll have an outstanding season.

The senior class also has a major presence at linebacker, where Jonathan Cornell (79 tackles) and Allen Walker (51 tackles, 1 sack) will both be entering their 3rd season in the starting lineup. With so much veteran savvy on hand and a great D-Line ahead of them, I fully expect this unit to have a strong season, especially against the run.

My one concern about this defense is in the secondary, where senior safety Johnny Brown (81 tackles, 1 INT) is the only starter returning. While Brown is also the team’s top tackler back from 2009, he will have to oversee a group that could start as many as three underclassmen! That said, there is certainly a lot of talent on hand as senior cornerback Jeremy McGee (19 tackles, 1 INT) could certainly quell a lot of my concerns if he can claim a starting role. Paired with redshirt freshman Chuck Sawyer, the star of the Spring Game, McGee could be the key to Ole Miss performing well against the pass this season.

Overall, there is certainly a lot to like about this defense. They’re going to be murderous against the run this fall with a senior-laden front seven that will be anchored by two of the SEC’s biggest defensive tackles. That’s going to leave the defensive ends with good matchups and could lead to a very strong pass rush as well. While the secondary is inexperienced, Brown’s veteran presence will play a strong part in building chemistry quickly. Finally, the ease of their opening schedule should take a lot of pressure off of this learning group, which should be much more prepared when they face the teeth of their SEC schedule in the 2nd half of the year.

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SCHEDULE

I keep talking about how favorable the opening schedule is for the Rebels, so let’s take a look. The first five games feature four home games against Vanderbilt, Fresno State, Kentucky and D-1AA Jacksonville State on opening day! The only road game tossed into that mix is a trip to New Orleans to face lowly Tulane and there is a very strong chance for a 5-0 start considering that Fresno State might be the toughest team on that list. The other great part is that the Rebels get an off week after that before opening up SEC play.

Cue the ominous music: Ole Miss faces a gauntlet right off the bat as they have to travel to Alabama and Arkansas in back to back weeks before returning home to face Auburn! While they get a bit of a respite with a home affair against Louisiana, they then have to return to the road for two weeks in a row to play at Tennessee and LSU, two of the toughest venues in the country! All of this is capped off with the Egg Bowl against nemesis Mississippi State, which mercifully comes at home. Needless to say, the opening ease of the schedule is more than accounted for in the vicious 2 nd half. However, that early portion might be enough to allow the Rebels to get their inexperienced team confident and comfortable on both sides of the football and that’s going to be a huge benefit in the 2nd half.

OUTLOOK

Ole Miss is flying in under the radar this fall, a complete 180 degree turn from last August when many people, yours truly included, felt they were one of the favorites to win the SEC West. This is a very good sign because Houston Nutt’s teams generally have their best seasons when expectations are low and that factor alone makes this team dangerous.

However, there are some serious question marks about this team, namely on the offensive side of the football. Much like recently departed mascot Colonel Reb, the passing game will be starting from scratch, as Masoli is far more likely to make an impact running than throwing if he beats out Stanley. Furthermore, this isn’t a dynamic receiving corps and I wouldn’t be surprised whatsoever if this turned out to be one of the league’s worst aerial attacks.

On the other hand, the rushing game could turn out be a pretty successful unit with Bolden as the main runner, especially if Masoli’s mobility is factored in. After all, Nutt has a great track record of building offenses around a strong rushing game: Remember that he is the guy who won the SEC West at Arkansas in 2006 with the league’s 2nd worst passing attack! But unlike that team, there is no Darren McFadden or Felix Jones in the backfield this season and I don’t expect anything remotely approaching that team’s dominance on the ground.

The great news is that Ole Miss should have a very impressive defense this year, led by a strong trio of senior linemen. The Rebels should be a force against the run and I don’t foresee many teams having much success on the ground against them. That dominance in the front will also help their secondary get their feet wet and I think that this will be a tough defense by the time the 2nd half of the season rolls around.

But when it all comes down to it, the 2nd half of the season is going to be too much for this Ole Miss team to handle. Back to back weeks at the two favorites to win the division is likely to result in back to back losses and then they have to play a very tough Auburn squad! Ouch. I also don’t think that the offense will have enough balance to score a lot of points against most of the tough defenses that they’ll face and that is going to relegate the Rebels to the bottom half of the West division. However, another weak non-SEC schedule and a favorable draw from the East that features the expected bottom three finishers in Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Kentucky should enough to ensure another eight win regular season. The Mississippi Rebels are my choice to finish 5th in the SEC West Division in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 8-4 (4-4 SEC)