2010 Michigan State Spartans Football Preview

2009 Results: 6-7, Lost Alamo Bowl vs. Texas Tech

Head Coach: Mark Dantonio (4th year, 22-17 @ MSU, 40-34 Overall)

Home Venue: Spartan Stadium (75,005), East Lansing, Michigan

Last season was a year of missed opportunity and turmoil for the Michigan State Spartans. Coming off the school’s first nine win campaign in nearly a decade, Sparty endured a tough campaign that saw them lose five games by less than eight points en route to a disappointing 6-6 regular season. Then came the infamous November residence hall brawl that involved nearly a sixth of the roster and Michigan State had to play Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl with a lot of players suspended. In so many ways, it was a year that MSU would love to forget.

However, there were a lot of positives that came out of the general misery that constituted the 2009 campaign in East Lansing. A ton of underclassmen gained valuable experience, the Spartans showed that they wouldn’t quit down the stretch and Michigan State played in their 3rd consecutive bowl game for the first time in over a decade. Can Head Coach Mark Dantonio guide the Spartans back towards the top of the Big Ten this season?

OFFENSE

For all of the disappointment in the team’s finish last year, there were a ton of positive developments for the offense. The Spartans finished 2nd in the league in scoring at 29.7 points per contest and came to a clear conclusion in what could have potentially been a divisive quarterback battle. That resulted in the Big Ten’s 2nd most dangerous aerial assault and the passing game appears absolutely stacked again this year. Can Michigan State remain near the top of the conference in scoring in 2010?

Junior quarterback Kurt Cousins (2,680 yards, 19 TDs, 9 INT in ’09) emerged as the clear-cut starter last season, beating out classmate Keith Nichol (764 yards, 7 TDs, 3 INT) to become one of the Big Ten’s best quarterbacks. A rare sophomore captain, Cousins is the unquestioned leader of the offense and he should have an enormous campaign this fall.

But the QB battle also worked out well for Nichol. His great athleticism allowed him to transition to wide receiver for the Alamo Bowl and he is expected to add to a deep group of pass catchers this season. Led by juniors B.J. Cunningham (48 catches, 641 yards, 4 TDs) and Keshawn Martin (18 catches, 411 receiving yards, 219 rush yards, 6 total TDs), Cousins should have no trouble distributing the ball amongst one of the league’s best groups of wideouts. Also keep an eye on senior tight end Charlie Gantt (22 catches, 348 yards, 2 TDs), who could be a sleeper for the All-Big Ten team. With so much proven talent returning, Michigan State could have the conference’s most productive aerial offense in 2010.

But they should also be a very balanced offense. Sophomores Larry Caper (468 yards, 6 TDs) and Edwin Baker (427 yards, 1 TD) were the team’s top two rushers in 2009 as true freshmen and their production should only increase this season. After all, opposing defenses won’t be able to stack the box against the run with Cousins and his fleet of receivers keeping them honest. On top of that, both young runners will be better players with a full year of experience under their belts and I am confident that Michigan State will see improved production from their ground game this fall.

The only area of concern for the Spartan attack is up front, where only two starters return. MSU was really beat up by injuries in ’09 as they started nine different players on the O-Line and really never got into a great rhythm. This season, junior guard Joel Forman is going to anchor the line as the only starter with more than a year’s experience and he will be one of the league’s best linemen. Another positive is the breadth of experience gained from all of the injury struggles, since five returning players started at least one game last season. With that much playing time back and a bunch of talented linemen coming off of redshirt seasons, I’m confident that Michigan State’s offensive line will grow into a strong unit this year.

What might have been the most impressive fact about the Spartans’ 2nd rated offense last fall was that they had four underclassmen starters at the skill positions! That much youth tends to indicate that this group still hasn’t reached their full potential and bodes really well for the 2010 season. With one of the league’s top quarterbacks in Cousins, a fleet of receivers and a talented pair of sophomore tailbacks, the Green and White attack will be one of the Big Ten’s best offenses.

DEFENSE

But the offense was excellent last season and that was still only enough to earn Michigan State a six win season. That’s because their defense didn’t hold up their end of the bargain, specifically through the air. MSU allowed over 26 points per game thanks to the conference’s worst pass defense, which allowed an average of 320 yards per contest in the Spartans’ seven losses. Given Dantonio’s background as a former defensive backs coach, this collapse had to be particularly galling. To counter their failures and focus on their strengths, MSU installed some 3-4 elements to their defense this spring and that could pay dividends with a more flexible front seven. Can Michigan State’s D put together a much more respectable showing this fall?

The heart and soul of the entire team is senior linebacker Greg Jones (154 tackles, 9 sacks), who was a 1st Team All-American in 2009. He turned down a chance to be a high NFL draft pick to come back for his final season and he might be the best linebacker in the entire country. With classmate Eric Gordon (92 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and impressive sophomore Chris Norman filling out the starting group, Michigan State has one of the country’s best groups of linebackers.

The front line also looks like a solid unit. Sophomore defensive tackle Jerel Worthy (37 tackles, 4.5 sacks) will see the field a lot thanks to a key role in both the 4-3 and 3-4 sets and he should have a big year. Meanwhile, senior end Colin Neely (24 tackles, 3 sacks) will occupy one of the starting spots and he should put up better numbers this fall. But the most interesting players to watch will be sophomores Blake Treadwell and Tyler Hoover, both of which saw extensive playing time as true freshmen last year. Expect a big leap forward by both. Finally, true freshman William Gholston was a consensus five star recruit that signed with the Spartans in February and his extraordinary athleticism combined with his enormous frame (he is 6’7”!) should result in a ton of playing time at both end and rush linebacker. Expect another strong season from the MSU D-Line.

But the key to the whole defense will be the play of the defensive backs. Senior cornerback Chris L. Rucker (58 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) should bounce back from a tough 2009 campaign in his 3rd season in the starting lineup and junior safety Trenton Robinson (67 tackles, 1 INT) should also have a better year after taking over down the stretch last fall. However, the rest of the group is going to be somewhat worrisome. Senior safety Marcus Hyde (46 tackles) is the most likely candidate to start next to Robinson after playing extensively last season but he’ll be tested often by opponents. The wild card in the secondary is a talented group of players who redshirted last fall: If a few of them can contribute then this group will make great strides. In the end, I don’t know how the pass defense can get any worse than the group from last season, which allowed 32 touchdowns through the air while grabbing only six picks, so this should be a better unit, almost by default.

But I don’t want to minimize the effect that a stronger front seven will have on the much-maligned Spartan secondary. MSU should continue to be tough against the run (4th in the Big Ten last fall) and a good pass rush will force opposing quarterbacks into a lot of errors. When it comes down to it, I think that Michigan State will improve against the pass while maintaining their quality showing up front and that should reduce the number of points that opponents put up on the scoreboard.

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SCHEDULE

Michigan State will also enjoy a favorable schedule that features only four true road games. Outside of Big Ten play, rival Notre Dame travels to East Lansing, along with lowly Western Michigan and D-1AA Northern Colorado. The 4th non-league game takes place in Detroit, as MSU faces off against lightly-regarded Florida Atlantic. Needless to say, the Notre Dame game is really the only dangerous game on that list.

The Spartans also get a huge break in Big Ten play, as they don’t face Ohio State thanks to the unbalanced schedule rotation! This cannot be understated: OSU has won a share of the last five league championships and is on the short list of National Championship contenders this season. MSU’s Big Ten slate consists of home affairs against Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota and Purdue while they have to hit the road to face Northwestern, Iowa, Penn State and archrival Michigan. While facing two rivals away from Spartan Stadium won’t be easy, this is still a pretty favorable schedule.

OUTLOOK

There are a lot of signs that point to a bounce back campaign for Michigan State. After scoring the 2nd most points in the Big Ten in 2009, the core of that group returns for another go-round. Since most of the players that took part in last season’s offensive explosion were first year starters, I’m confident that they’ll match or exceed that showing with Cousins entrenched under center.

The defense should also be an improved unit. The front seven are going to be a tough matchup due to their flexibility between schemes and Jones is a tackling machine. Expect good pressure on the quarterback and a strong showing against the run. The defensive backs should also be better after seemingly forgetting how to cover anybody last fall and that should cause an extremely noticeable bump in the overall play of the Spartan ‘D’.

Factor in a schedule that avoids Ohio State and only features four road games, and the potential is there for a big rebound campaign. MSU hosts Notre Dame this fall after two warm up games and a win over the Irish could result in a 4-0 start. With a favorable home slate that only includes one daunting affair against Wisconsin, Michigan State has the potential for a darkhorse league championship run if they can upset the Badgers in early October. Remember, the last three games between the two teams have been decided by eight points or less, so it certainly isn’t outside the realm of possibility for a Spartan victory. However, a 3-1 home record in Big Ten play is the most likely outcome and that’s what I’m predicting.

That means that the season will be decided by their performance on the road. The two games that everyone has circled on the calendar (Michigan and Penn State) are actually the two that I think MSU has the best chance of winning! Dantonio is 2-0 against Michigan since Rich Rodriguez arrived and that mark should improve to 3-0 with a win in the Big House. While I think that the Spartans will have trouble with back to back trips to Northwestern and Iowa in late October, a season-ending upset at offensively-challenged Penn State will vault them into the postseason with a chance at double digit victories for the first time since Nick Saban’s final season in East Lansing over a decade ago. The Michigan State Spartans are my choice to finish 4th in the Big Ten Conference in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 9-3 (5-3 Big Ten)