2010 LSU Tigers Football Preview

2009 Results: 9-4, Lost Capital One Bowl vs. Penn State

Head Coach: Les Miles (6th year, 51-15 @ LSU, 79-36 Overall)

Home Venue: Tiger Stadium (92,400) Baton Rouge, Louisiana

2009 was a strangely unfulfilling season for LSU fans. While the team finished with a 9-4 record, their only victory over a ranked team came at Georgia in a game marred by the referees. To cap things off, the Tigers lost three out of their final five games, including a loss to Penn State of the hated Big Ten in the Capital One Bowl.

And with that disappointment, the bloom appears to be coming off of the rose for Les Miles at LSU. Fans are grumbling about his questionable in-game decisions and there are whispers that he can only win big with Nick Saban’s recruits, whispers that got a lot louder when Saban won the National Title last fall at hated Alabama. As hard as it is to believe with the Tigers only three seasons removed from a National Championship, Miles could actually put his job into jeopardy heading into next season if his team doesn’t have a strong year. Can LSU win the SEC West this fall despite losing five NFL draft picks and end the speculation about their head coach’s future?

OFFENSE

A great place to start would be at quarterback, where junior Jared Jefferson (2,166 yards, 17 TDs, 7 INT in ‘09) had a largely forgettable season last fall. While his statistics appear to be impressive on the surface, LSU finished 9th in the league in passing and 11th in scoring! While Jefferson wasn’t the only problem, he seemed uncomfortable in the pocket and is coming off of a terrible spring, leading Tiger fans to openly wonder if junior Jarrett Lee (who has more career interceptions returned for touchdowns than any active quarterback in college football today) might beat him out this fall! Needless to say, LSU needs much better quarterbacking this season if they expect to realistically compete.

Another problem with the passing game was Jefferson’s inability to distribute the football between more than two receivers. Senior Terrence Toliver (53 catches, 735 yards, 3 TDs) was one of two Tiger receivers to catch more than 50 passes last fall, but the problem was that graduated tight end Richard Dickson finished 3rd with only 21 grabs! Sophomore Reuben Randle (11 catches, 173 yards, 2 TDs) showed flashes of excellence as a true freshman, but will Jefferson look his way or continue locking onto Toliver? On top of that, athletic sensation Russell Shepard (277 rush yards, 2 TDs) is expected to be the 3rd receiving option after moving from quarterback in the spring. Will the athletic sophomore once compared to Terrelle Pryor at Ohio State successfully transition to wide receiver? The good news is that LSU isn’t asking him to do so because he’s expected to play a role similar to Ole Miss’ Dexter McCluster from last season, featuring a combination of receiving and running. With so many opportunities to handle the football, Shepard is certainly a candidate for a breakout performance this season. Outside of Toliver, this is a very unproven group, but their sheer athleticism should allow for a productive season if Jefferson can get them football.

But the passing game wasn’t the only reason for LSU’s struggles on offense last year. Despite the presence of eventual 6th round pick Charles Scott (542 yards, 4 TDs) at tailback, who was coming off of a 1,100 yard campaign in 2008, the Tigers finished 11th in the conference in rushing! It also wasn’t for a lack of trying that the run game failed, because LSU ran the ball 56.4 percent of the time last season. Even their admittedly heavy injury issues shouldn’t deflect criticism for this poor of a performance, because the Tigers failed to break the 100 yard mark as a team in six games last year!

What that should tell you is that the LSU offensive line had a really bad season. Even worse, the two most veteran performers from the line, including 2nd Team All-American left tackle Ciron Black, graduated, leaving only two starters back after the mid-summer suspension of center T-Bob Herbert. While relying on someone who goes by the name ‘T-Bob’ is generally considered a no-no, Herbert was the starter for the entire season and his absence would leave an already questionable group further in the lurch. Junior Stevan Ridley (180 yards, 3 TDs) is the top returning runner among the tailbacks and I’m simply not confident that his line will be able to open holes for him and his similarly inexperienced runners. It wouldn’t be surprising if do-it-all Shepard ended up leading the team in rushing without resembling a traditional running back this fall.

It seems like there is a big concern for every exceptional athlete on this offense. LSU’s receivers appear to be the strength of the attack, but will Jefferson (or Lee) manage to get them the football with any consistency? Newly minted wideout Shepard will get plenty of touches this season, but will he find a lot of room to run behind the rebuilding O-Line? With the specter of the Jefferson vs. Lee battle carrying over into a 3rd consecutive season, this offense looks primed for another disappointing year.

DEFENSE

Luckily, LSU was all kinds of excellent on defense last year, finishing 3rd in the SEC in scoring defense at an impressive 16 points per contest while finishing 4th against the run and 5th in total yards! However, that talented unit was massively depleted by graduation and there will be a significant rebuilding job on hand this fall.

The Tigers have become well known for their first-rate play on the defensive line and that has been shown by the kind of talent that they routinely send to the NFL. In each of the last seven drafts, at least one LSU D-Lineman has been selected! However, this season’s unit might put that streak in jeopardy because they’re facing a bit of a rebuilding job. Senior defensive tackle Lazarius Levingston (28 tackles) is the only returning starter but classmate Drake Nevis (50 tackles, 4 sacks) should replace 4th round selection Al Woods nicely at the other tackle spot. I expect this pairing to give the Tigers a strong foundation against the run. That said, the defensive ends are definitely a concern. LSU finished with the 3rd fewest sacks in the conference in ’09 and that trend could continue as sophomore Chancey Aghayere (12 tackles, 1 sack) is the only returning DE who has recorded a sack in his career! This unit might be similar to last year’s group, which was stout against the run but left the secondary hanging with their inability to get into the backfield.

At linebacker, senior Kelvin Sheppard (110 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) was the team’s leading tackler last fall and is a likely captain material this season. As he’s also the only returning linebacker, his leadership will be badly needed. Junior Ryan Baker (17 tackles, 1 sack) is expected to fill one of the starting spots next to him but Sheppard is the only ‘backer on the team who has started a game in his career. That said, LSU has some former top-flight recruits on their roster that could flourish next to a future NFLer like Sheppard and I’m confident that this will be a solid group, at least against the run.

Where the Tiger defense has the most talent is in the secondary. Junior Patrick Peterson (52 tackles, 2 INT) was a 2nd Team All-SEC selection last season and he is widely considered to be one of the finest cover corners in the country. Even better, sophomore Morris Claiborne emerged as a star this spring and will pair with Peterson to form one of the SEC’s best cornerback tandems. Meanwhile, the safety position is also fully stocked. Junior Brandon Taylor (41 tackles, 2 INT) played well last season in his first year starting and the other safety spot is the subject of a heated battle between senior Jai Eugene (26 tackles, INT) and former top-rated recruit Craig Loston, who would have played extensively last season had he not been injured. Expect LSU to be a formidable defense through the air.

Overall, there shouldn’t be any doubt that LSU is going to have a tough defense this season. While I’m worried about the D-Line’s ability to generate a pass rush, they’re going to be very stout up the middle and that bodes well for another great year against the run. On top of that, the Tigers always have someone unexpected emerge up front, so I’m confident that this will be one of the league’s better lines this fall. Meanwhile, Sheppard is one of the SEC’s top linebackers and his presence should inspire confidence in the run game. Finally, the secondary is just chock full of athleticism and they should have a great season even without a consistent pass rush. Like usual, this will be one of the SEC’s better defenses in 2010.

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SCHEDULE

This will be a very interesting schedule to watch play out, because LSU faces two BCS conference opponents outside of SEC play for the first time since 1991! The season kicks off in Atlanta against North Carolina in the Chik-Fil-A Kickoff Classic, which has quickly become one of the showcase games of opening weekend. Then later in September, Big East contender West Virginia comes to Death Valley, a game that shouldn’t be overlooked by Tiger fans considering WVU’s 10-4 record versus the SEC in the last three decades.

In fact, the first half of the season is quite atypical as LSU doesn’t face a single opponent from outside of a BCS Conference, throwing this team directly into the fire. Aside from WVU and UNC, the Tigers have to play at Florida and Vanderbilt while hosting Tennessee and Mississippi State! Even with Louisiana-Monroe and D-1AA McNeese State on the 2nd half docket, the schedule won’t get any easier as the Tigers travel to Arkansas and Auburn while hosting Ole Miss and nemesis Alabama. Needless to say, this is a brutal schedule.

OUTLOOK

It is certainly going to be a fascinating season for the Louisiana State Tiger football team. Let’s start with the positives: The defense is certainly going to be a tough unit, especially against the run with their two big D-Tackles and top ‘backer Sheppard in the middle. On top of that, their secondary has a ton of raw athleticism and Peterson is an All-American candidate at corner. Even the lack of a pass rush doesn’t seem like as much of concern when you factor in LSU’s excellent recent history on the D-Line.

Unfortunately, it seems like the offense is going to be a big problem again this season. I simply don’t have faith in Jefferson after watching him squirm in the pocket last year and then follow that up with a tough spring. That’s especially damaging because the most talented part of this offense is at wide receiver, where Toliver, Randle and Shepard are as talented as almost any group in the conference. While Shepard is going to make plays in all kinds of sets this season after changing positions in the spring, it will only mask the fact that the Tigers don’t have a frontline tailback to carry the load. Finally, the O-Line is a big concern, as the final two starters from the 2007 championship team are gone. While I fully expect Herbert to be part of the team this fall (Miles has no choice with the pressure on him), this is still going to be no better than an average front in the SEC.

When it comes down to it, LSU simply doesn’t have the offense to be anything more than a middle of the road team in the SEC this year and I wonder how that will affect the defense over the course of a long season. In spite of what the recruiting services say, they’re no better than the 3rd or 4th most talented team in the division because of a lack of recent elite commitments in the trenches. I think Miles is going to be cursing the non-conference scheduling after his 3 rd straight disappointing year and don’t be surprised his name pops up on Michigan’s radar this offseason if the Wolverines are looking for a new coach. If he’s offered the chance to jump, I’d be shocked if he didn’t take it.

Further complicating matters is the toughest schedule that LSU has faced in two decades. Both UNC and WVU have excellent chances at defeating the Tigers and frankly, I think that Miles goes 0-2 in his premier non-conference matchups. After watching his in-game decisions cost his team repeatedly in the last two years, I have no faith in the Tigers when the spotlight is on. His team also has three tough conference road games at Florida, Arkansas and Auburn and they’ll be lucky to win one of those as all three teams are major contenders. The only redeeming part of the schedule is that a favorable home slate coupled with a visit to lowly Vanderbilt puts the Tigers in position to have a winning league season if they can pull an upset somewhere along the line. However, I don’t see that happening, making the Louisiana State Tigers my pick to finish 4 th in the SEC West Division in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 6-6 (4-4 SEC)