2010 Louisville Cardinals Football Preview

2009 Results: 4-8, No Bowl

Head Coach: Charlie Strong (1st year, 0-1 Overall)

Home Venue: Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium (56,000)

The last three seasons in Louisville were a classic example of a coaching staff that was a poor fit for the program. Former coach Steve Kragthorpe was simply out of his league in a BCS conference and after inheriting a team that had won 41 games in the previous four seasons, he managed to miss a bowl in every one of his three years!

Taking his place is the long awaited opportunity for former Florida Defensive Coordinator Charlie Strong, who has been considered one of the nation’s best assistants for nearly a decade. Strong brings a great defensive mind and a lot of recruiting cache from his time with the Gators. But the question for 2010 is whether he can revive a moribund team and get back to the postseason despite a questionable level of talent on hand.

OFFENSE

The Cardinals were once recognized as one of the country’s best offensive teams under former coach Bobby Petrino. However, scoring was literally cut in half from Kragthorpe’s first season, bottoming out with a mere 18 points per game last fall. As Strong is a defensive-minded coach, his hire of former UNLV head coach Mike Sanford is a good one as Sanford had great success running Urban Meyer’s offense at Utah.

But the pieces aren’t necessarily in place to see a breakout right away. After all, there is no Tim Tebow or Alex Smith on the Cardinal roster! The good news is that the running game appears to be in good shape as the top rushers from 2009 return, led by junior Victor Anderson (473 yards, 5 TDs in 4 starts in ’09), who was the Big East Freshman of the Year in 2008 before injuries slowed him down last fall. Expect him to bounce back in a big way and the support of senior Bilal Powell (392 yards, 4 TDs) should give Louisville a capable tandem of runners.

They’ll also run behind a veteran line that returns four starters, a group that had to learn on the fly last year to replace some major graduation losses. With a ton of depth, this should be a solid, if unspectacular, line.

Where I have my concerns is in the passing game. Senior Adam Froman (1,354 yards, 6 TD, 5 INT, 7 starts) was rather ineffective in the old offense and while I think his running ability might translate well to the new attack, he is not a great passer. That means that Louisville’s starting QB will either be a senior with a low ceiling or a true freshman! To make matters worse, senior Doug Beaumont (38 catches, 465 yards, 0 TDs) is the most productive returning receiver and he didn’t even get in the end zone last fall. While there is some good talent on hand (massive junior Josh Chichester is a jump ball nightmare), I really don’t have much confidence in the Cardinal passing attack.

Overall, the Louisville offense is going to be decidedly one dimensional this fall. They have a good pair of tailbacks and an adequate line to give them room to run. However, the Cardinals are going have difficulty throwing the football and that will allow opponents to cheat up to stop the run. With those concerns in mind, I think that Louisville will struggle to score more than 20 points per game this season.

DEFENSE

Perhaps the biggest failure of the failure-ridden Kragthorpe tenure was Louisville’s complete inability to field a decent defense. After Petrino’s final three years yielded an average allowance of 19 points per game, the Cardinals never managed to hold opponents under an average of 26 points per outing in Kragthorpe’s three seasons. However, Strong was generally considered one of the country’s best defensive coordinators at Florida, so expect a strong turnaround in the next few seasons.

Unfortunately for Strong, his first defense is going to be an inexperienced one, as only four starters are back from last season’s unit. With such inexperience, the first year head coach is much more likely to play a lot of younger players, especially his own recruits, so this season should be quite bi-polar with equal amounts of success and failure.

The defensive line might be the weakest aspect of the unit, as junior DE William Savoy (23 tackles, 5 sacks) might be the best player. However, Savoy didn’t even start last year as he is rather undersized, leaving a unit that was the league’s worst against the run without a stalwart. The linebackers don’t look much better, as seniors Brandon Heath (48 tackles) and Antwon Canady (34 tackles) saw the field a lot last season but neither will be more than a decent stopper. In short, the run defense looks like it will be a big concern again this fall.

The best part of this defense is likely in the secondary, where senior corner Johnny Patrick (53 tackles, 2 INT) is the team’s top returning tackler. He will be the leader of a very young unit that will include 5 star DB Demar Dorsey, who was a late addition to the Cardinal recruiting class after failing to get into Michigan. Dorsey’s exceptional athleticism could allow him to start at either safety or cornerback from day one. That said, while there is going to be a lot of athleticism in the secondary this fall, there is not going to be a lot of experience so this unit could be hot and cold all season.

Overall, Strong has some serious work to do on a defense that might have the least talented personnel in the entire conference. Of special concern is the front seven, who are undersized and coming off of a disappointing campaign. While I believe that Strong will return a solid sense of fundamentals to this defense, I don’t think he has enough talent to instigate a quick turnaround. Unfortunately, Louisville is still a year or two away from fielding more than an average defense and that means another season of struggle in 2010.

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SCHEDULE

The Cardinals have four conference home games and seven home contests overall, which is a great advantage for Strong’s first year. However, their non-league schedule includes hosting archrival Kentucky on Opening Day and trips to Oregon State and Arkansas State before the season begins, leaving Louisville with a good early challenge. The schedule also is difficult down the stretch as they play nine consecutive weeks after a September off week.

OUTLOOK

The Cardinals are in much better coaching hands under Charlie Strong. Unfortunately, he wasn’t left with the same great talent that awaited Kragthorpe three seasons ago (when he should have got the job in the first place) and it will be a few years before Strong can bring in enough talent to compete. Their defense simply isn’t very talented and the running game will be a big liability. Meanwhile, they’re very likely to be one dimensional on offense and that means that they’ll have trouble scoring points. When you have a meager offense and a porous defense, you have a formula for a rebuilding season and I’m afraid that Louisville’s postseason drought will be extended another year in 2010. The Cardinals are my choice to finish last in the Big East.

PREDICTED RESULT: 4-8 (1-6 Big East)