2010 Kentucky Wildcats Football Preview

2009 Results: 7-6, Lost Music City Bowl vs. Clemson

Head Coach: Joker Phillips (1st year @ UK, No Previous Head Coaching Experience)

Home Venue: Commonwealth Stadium (67,942) Lexington, Kentucky

In a conference dominated by big names and bigger success, Kentucky has flown under the radar for the past few seasons. Yet, no school has had a bigger change in fortune than the Wildcats, who extended their postseason streak to four consecutive seasons last year. Considering that UK hadn’t seen a bowl game (except on TV) since 1999 before that, there has been some excellent work building this program into a perennial success story.

That credit goes to now-departed coach Rich Brooks, who retired to hand the reigns over to his longtime offensive coordinator and Head Coach in Waiting, Joker Phillips. Brooks’ swan song in 2009 saw Kentucky win seven games, most notably their 3rd straight win over rival Louisville and a victory at Georgia for the first time since 1977! However, there were a lot of graduation losses and the ‘Cats must also adjust to life with a new coach. Can Phillips continue Kentucky’s bowl streak in his first season as the man in charge in Lexington?

OFFENSE

Kentucky had a clear offensive identity last season as a running team, racking up 191 rush yards per game to finish 5 th in the conference on the ground. The driving forces behind their solid attack were senior tailback Derrick Locke (907 rush yards, 31 catches, 382 receiving yards, 8 total TDs, 2 nd Team All-SEC in ’09) and jack of all trades junior Randall Cobb (573 rush yards, 39 catches, 447 receiving yards, 14 total TDs). Locke proved to be a strong #1 runner while Cobb was the triggerman of the Wildcat run game and a dangerous player on reverses. Cobb is also the team’s leading receiver. While Kentucky’s pass game was virtually non-existent last year, their top five receivers are back and senior Chris Matthews (32 catches, 354 yards, 3 TDs) should form a good starting pair with Cobb this fall.

The problem is that Kentucky was terrible at quarterback in 2009. Senior Mike Hartline (802 yards, 6 TDs, 7 INT) only played half of a season due to injuries and was generally banged up, ineffective, or both when he was on the field. However, mobile sophomore Morgan Newton (706 yards, 6 TDs, 3 INT) showed great potential while starting eight games after arriving as one of the country’s highest rated prep passers last summer. Simply put, Hartline has been unimpressive whenever he has been on the field in the past three years and the Wildcats should have a much better chance for success this fall and in the future if Newton claims the starting role in camp.

However, the biggest concern for the Kentucky offense isn’t at quarterback; it is who will protect the quarterback. Junior guard Stuart Hines is the only returning starter up front after UK graduated two 2nd Team All-SEC linemen last year. The good news is that the new faces have seen the field a lot in recent years, especially at tackle where senior Brad Durham and junior Billy Murphy have combined for ten starts in their careers. While so many new starters will likely mean some growing pains for this unit, I don’t think they’ll see a major drop off up front.

Overall, Kentucky’s offense hinges on two things: The O-Line gelling and Newton winning the quarterback job. I’ve completely given up on Hartline after watching him struggle repeatedly in the last three years and Newton clearly has a high ceiling. He should blossom as a sophomore and might even be capable of returning some balance to this offense via the passing game. I also am cautiously optimistic that the line will have a solid year. After all, there will be no change in scheme for the Wildcats to learn as Phillips has been in charge for a long time and that should also ease the transition period. With playmakers like Cobb and Locke on hand, expect Kentucky to field a productive offense in 2010.

DEFENSE

The Wildcats had a banner year defensively last fall, as they held opponents to under 23 points per contest. Especially impressive was their showing against the pass, as UK held opponents to a paltry 48.5% completion rate, one of the best in the entire country. Furthermore, the long-planned transition at the top means that the defensive coaching staff remains intact, so things will be business as usual this fall. Can Kentucky continue their run of strong defensive performances in 2010?

The Wildcats are going to be experienced up front. While they will miss big DT Corey Peters, who was a 3rd round pick in April, they do boast a solid set of defensive ends in senior DeQuin Evans (38 tackles, 6 sacks) and sophomore Taylor Windham (28 tackles, 2 sacks), who was responsible for the big hit that knocked out Tim Tebow last fall. Senior DT Ricky Lumpkin (26 tackles) is the final returning starter, so there will be a lot of experience on this line. My one concern about this group is their ability to hold up to the run as they finished 11th in the conference last fall with Peters anchoring the middle and don’t appear to have anyone to pick up the slack in his absence.

At linebacker, junior Danny Trevathan (82 tackles) is the only returning starter, but he finished 2nd on the team in tackles last fall and will provide good leadership. The problem is that the two departed starters, Micah Johnson and Sam Maxwell, were both 2nd Team All-SEC selections and their replacements have virtually no experience. While Trevathan is a good competitor, I am very concerned about the play of the linebackers for UK because I don’t see them effectively replacing Johnson and Maxwell’s combined totals of 185 tackles and 6 interceptions from 2009.

Luckily, their much-ballyhooed secondary from last fall should still be a strong unit. While 4th round pick Trevard Lindley will be missed for his excellent play at corner, junior Randall Burden (36 tackles, 2 INT) is a solid player in his own right and will be the top cover man this fall. Another big boost will come from senior Paul Warford (32 tackles), who will start opposite Burden. Warford struggled with injuries last fall but has played extensively in his career, giving the Wildcats a good pair of cornerbacks. At safety, junior Winston Guy (60 tackles) broke out last season with a strong showing in run support and I think that he will continue to progress this year. Overall, the defensive backs aren’t going to match last season’s excellence, but there is no doubt that this will be an effective group.

I’m lukewarm on the Kentucky defense for one major reason: They really don’t stand out at any position. The D-Line features a proven pass rusher and returns a lot of depth, but concerns about size and their ability to defend the run could hold them back. Meanwhile, the linebackers will be led by a solid upperclassman in Trevathan but they also have to deal with a serious drain of talent. Finally, their secondary will still be underrated but it also won’t be nearly as effective as it was in 2009. The Wildcat defense is solid but unspectacular and the lack of playmakers will relegate them to the bottom half of the SEC.

> Buy Kentucky Wildcats apparel, Kentucky baseball hats and UK Wildcats merchandise and find a great selection of Fatheads online through College Sports Fans!

SCHEDULE

As always, the premier non-conference game comes against archrival Louisville early in the year. While the Cardinals have home field advantage and will be playing new coach Charlie Strong’s 1st career game against UK, they also have a rebuilding team, meaning that Kentucky will probably be favored. The rest of the schedule outside of the SEC is a joke, as WKU, Akron and D-1AA Charlestown Southern come to Lexington.

In conference play, the Wildcats have a great draw from the West, hosting Auburn while traveling to Mississippi and Mississippi State. That means that they avoid favorites Arkansas and Alabama and perennial contender LSU! UK also has three home division games, though they do have to travel to Florida and Tennessee. Overall, this is a very favorable schedule for Kentucky.

OUTLOOK

The coaching change really shouldn’t change a lot about the Wildcats this fall. The vast majority of the staff remains intact, including both coordinators, and it has been widespread knowledge that Phillips was going to be Brooks’ successor. The Joker couldn’t have asked for a more favorable non-conference schedule for his first go-round either, as rival Louisville is the only legitimate threat on the docket. I expect UK to beat UL and post an unbeaten record outside of league play.

However, the SEC is going to be a different beast entirely. While the Wildcats are going to be a competitive team in most games this year, they’re still well behind most of their conference brethren in terms of talent. In spite of my optimism, UK still has to overhaul their offensive line while simultaneously finding better quarterbacking to really field an effective attack. After all, Randall Cobb can only do so much. Meanwhile, their defense is patently average: They will hold up well against the weak competition outside of league play but I fear that they’ll struggle significantly more in conference play against better opposition. That said, I think that the Wildcats will take advantage of their favorable schedule and find themselves in need of one win heading into their clash at Tennessee after Thanksgiving to earn bowl eligibility. While UK hasn’t beaten the Volunteers for 25 straight seasons, I think they will end that streak this fall and clinch their 5th consecutive bowl berth in doing so. The Kentucky Wildcats are my choice to finish 4th in the SEC East Division in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 6-6 (2-6 SEC)