2010 Iowa State Cyclones Football Preview

2009 Results: 7-6, Won Insight Bowl vs. Minnesota

Head Coach: Paul Rhoads (2nd year @ ISU, 7-6 Overall)

Home Venue: Jack Trice Stadium (55,000), Ames, Iowa

One of the best stories from the 2009 season was the turnaround that Head Coach Paul Rhoads led in his first year at Iowa State. Spurned by former coach Gene Chizik, Rhoads harnessed the Cyclone emotions and guided his team to the school’s first victory at Nebraska in over 30 years en route to the school’s first bowl berth since 2005. However, it was a senior-laden team and many key players have graduated, so a bowl berth will be much tougher to come by this season. Can Rhoads continue his magic by leading his team back to the postseason this fall?

OFFENSE

The Cyclones had the conference’s worst offense last season, putting up a meager 20.5 points per contest. However, ISU has had a rotating cast of offensive coordinators in the past few seasons and this will be the first time in a few years that they will actually keep their system for two consecutive seasons! That familiarity should allow the plethora of returning starters to have a much more productive campaign.

The star of the offense last season was senior tailback Alexander Robinson (1,195 rush yards, 17 catches, 261 receiving yards, 9 total TDs in ’09), who was the driving force behind the Big XII’s 3rd ranked running game. However, he isn’t the only big time runner on the team, as senior quarterback Austin Arnaud (2,015 pass yards, 561 rush yards, 22 total TDs, 13 INT) is extremely mobile and will move the chains.

I also have faith that the Cyclones will continue their solid ground attack because their O-Line brings back four starters from last season, the best of whom is junior tackle Kelechi Osemele, who was a 2nd Team All-Big XII selection. All four are also upperclassmen and I think that they will form the core of one of the league’s better units this fall.

My only position of concern on this offense is at wide receiver, where senior Jake Williams (36, 403 yards, 5 TDs) is the top returner from 2009. In general, there isn’t a lot of great production returning and that could stunt the growth of the passing game. That said, another season in the system should also help QB Arnaud’s productivity as he things will come much easier with the sense of familiarity.

When this unit is looked at as a whole, I feel very confident predicting that Iowa State will easily exceed last season’s scoring totals. The strong ground game of the Cyclones, led by Arnaud and Robinson, will be the driving force for success on the scoreboard in 2010.

DEFENSE

Iowa State was excellent on defense last season, as they allowed the school’s fewest points per game since 2005 while holding opponents to 21.8 points per contest. That was the 5th best in the Big XII! Unfortunately, the vast majority of that unit is now departed and there is a major rebuilding job on hand. Can Rhoads channel his defensive background and reload the Cyclone defense quickly?

First off, five out of the top seven tacklers from 2009 have graduated. No position is this more obvious than at linebacker, where ISU loses over 260 tackles. More than half of those belonged to Jesse Smith, who was a 1st Team All-Big XII choice last year. With that much lost production and a group of replacements that have never started a single game, Iowa State’s linebackers will go from one of the league’s best units to one of its worst.

Meanwhile, those inexperienced linebackers have to play behind a diminished D-Line as Iowa State loses their two most productive linemen from 2009. The only bright spot is that most of the backups were upperclassmen so there will at least be some experience on hand. However, this will not be a standout unit this season and combined with the weak linebackers, I think Iowa State will struggle mightily against the run.

Things aren’t all bad for the Cyclone defense though. The secondary will be led by senior safety Chad Sims (88 tackles, 5 INT, Big XII Newcomer of the Year) and junior cornerback Leonard Johnson (64 tackles, 2 INT), the top two returning tacklers from last season. After an improved season last fall through the air, I can definitely see ISU’s pass defense make another leap ahead this season, though the lack of a pass rush will hurt.

In the end, Iowa State’s solid secondary won’t be enough to overcome the Big XII’s worst front seven. The simple truth about this defense is that their secondary’s coverage skills might not end up being as important as their ability to support the run because opposing teams are going to run the ball down their throat at every conceivable moment. That will make their superiority in coverage a moot point because they’ll be too busy cheating up to the line. The net effect is that this will likely be one of the league’s worst defenses.

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SCHEDULE

The schedule is also very difficult. Outside of Big XII play, the Cyclones travel to archrival Iowa (who will be ranked in the top ten in the preseason) while hosting upset-minded Northern Illinois, talented Utah and D-1AA powerhouse Northern Iowa, who beat ISU the last time they played! Their Big XII draw is also brutal, as they play at Texas and Oklahoma in back to back weeks in October. Despite having seven home games, this is one of the country’s toughest schedules.

OUTLOOK

I’m afraid that last season was more of a blip on the radar than an indication of a long term trend of success. Rhoads harnessed his team’s emotions at Chizik’s rejection and relied upon a great senior class to play with great fundamentals and that paid off with a bowl berth. However, he has a very inexperienced defense this fall that is going to be an absolute liability in the running game and I see the Cyclones giving up a ton of points. Furthermore, their offense is rather one dimensional and I don’t have a lot of faith in their passing game to emerge as a major threat.

The icing on the gloomy cake for 2010 is the fact that ISU has one of the toughest schedules in the country. Anyone who has to play Texas and Oklahoma in back to back weeks has my condolences, especially if they’re rebuilding. With a really tough schedule, a one dimensional offense and a porous defense, I don’t see the Cyclones returning to the postseason. With a really tough league draw, Iowa State is my choice to finish 5th in the Big XII North Division in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 3-9 (2-6 Big XII)