2010 Iowa Hawkeyes Football Preview

2009 Results: 11-2, Won Orange Bowl vs. Georgia Tech

Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz (12th year, 81-55 @ Iowa, 93-76 Overall)

Home Venue: Kinnick Stadium (70,585), Iowa City, Iowa

Last season was the most successful year of the Kirk Ferentz era for the Iowa Hawkeyes. It was also perhaps their best season since 1958, when they won a share of the National Championship for the only time in school history. The Hawkeyes jumped out to a 9-0 start thanks to a tenacious defense and some late game offensive heroics, landing wide receiver Darrell Johnson-Koulianos on the cover of Sports Illustrated in November! However, the SI Cover jinx reared its ugly head as their starting quarterback was injured the very next week against Northwestern and Iowa lost their undefeated season at home in upset fashion. To their credit, the Hawkeyes rallied and nearly defeated Ohio State in the Horseshoe the next week, but backup QB James Vandenberg fell short in overtime to cede the league championship to the Buckeyes. Nevertheless, Iowa’s 10-2 regular season mark was enough to earn them a spot in the Orange Bowl against ACC Champion Georgia Tech and they took full advantage of the big stage. The Hawkeyes bulldozed the Yellow Jackets, outgaining them by 250 yards en route to the school’s first BCS Bowl victory. It was truly the culmination of a two year comeback campaign for Ferentz, who had received a lot of criticism after Iowa’s 19-18 mark from 2006-08.

But how will Iowa fare this fall after losing six players to the NFL draft, five of whom were taken in the top four rounds? Needless to say, that kind of talent drain is difficult for any program to overcome and a school like Iowa that doesn’t reload with five star recruits every year is even more hard pressed. The good news is that fourteen starters are back, including the entirety of one of the elite defensive lines in America. Can Ferentz guide his retooled team through a favorable schedule and win Iowa’s first Big Ten Championship since 2004?

OFFENSE

For all of the excitement that was generated by Iowa’s consistent comebacks last season, fans seem to be overlooking one key fact: They Hawkeyes had to come back so often because their offense was rather pedestrian in the first three quarters! Iowa only scored 23 points per game last fall, a full touchdown less than in 2008, and their scoring output was the 2nd lowest in the entire Big Ten! Now, a major reason for their struggles clearly was their injury woes at tailback, but the Hawkeyes also had major troubles with turnovers. Can Iowa boost their production with a veteran (and healthier) offense this season?

The silver lining from all of the injuries at tailback is that Ferentz’s offense will feature three proven runners this fall. Sophomore Adam Robinson (834 yards, 5 TDs in ’09) led the team in rushing while classmate Brandon Wegher (641 yards, 8 TDs) had a fine season as a true freshman! Add in sophomore Jewel Hampton, who was expected to carry the load in ’09 before injuring his knee, and this should be a powerful trio of runners. What’s more, each runner has a unique style that will make the backfield much more versatile. Expect a productive season on the ground for the Hawkeyes.

One major upgrade for Iowa should be quarterback Ricky Stanzi’s (2,417 yards, 17 TDs, 15 INT) improved ability to protect the football. Stanzi led the Big Ten in interceptions last season and had four picks returned for touchdowns! However, he showed a ton of moxie with his late-game heroics and was the primary reason that Iowa won so many games in comeback fashion. His interception totals were a surprise after he only threw nine picks in his first season starting in ’08 and I fully expect him to cut down on costly turnovers this fall. On top of that, he’s a winner as his career record as Iowa’s starter is an impressive 18-4. Needless to say, 2010 should be a great season for Stanzi in his 3 rd year starting under center.

He’ll also be the beneficiary of a solid group of wide receivers. Johnson-Koulianos (45 catches, 750 yards, 2 TDs) will team with junior Marvin McNutt (34 catches, 674 yards, 8 TDs) to form one of the league’s best tandems and both could see a jump in their numbers with an improved ground game to run play action. While they’ll miss departed tight end Tony Moeaki, senior Allen Reisner (14 catches, 143 yards, 1 TD) and elite freshman C.J. Fiedorowicz should continue their strong production at the position.

As crazy as it sounds, the only question mark for the Iowa offense is up front. Now, this is a program that is well-known for their ability to conjure strong O-Lines seemingly out of thin air, so worrying about their play in the trenches seems somewhat comical. However, there are only two starters back and the Hawkeyes have to replace two NFL draft picks, including 1st round tackle Brian Bulaga. That said, I’m more than confident that Ferentz will mold another strong line. Senior guard Julian Vandervelde will be starting for the 4th consecutive season while sophomore tackle Riley Reiff started at two positions last fall, including a strong four game spell at left tackle in Bulaga’s absence. With juniors Adam Gettis and Markus Zusevics claiming starting positions in the spring, I’m confident that this will be another typically effective Hawkeye front.

When all things are considered, Iowa looks primed for major improvement on offense this season. Stanzi will be much more judicious in his decision-making, his receivers are extremely talented and the O-Line should continue to give him time to make decisions. Factor in a trio of healthy gifted runners that each brings something different to the table and you have a formula for success. Expect the Hawkeyes to jump into the top half of the conference in scoring this fall.

DEFENSE

While the offense struggled in 2009, the Hawkeye defense was nothing less than one of the county’s most effective units. Iowa allowed a measly 15 points per game while finishing 3rd in the Big Ten in scoring defense and total defense. Their excellent secondary oversaw the league’s #1 rated pass unit and forced 19 turnovers in conference play! However, all three departed starters were drafted in April, so there is some serious talent to replace. Can the Gold and Black attack continue their defensive authority this fall?

Considering that Iowa returns every starter from one of the country’s most dominating lines, the first reaction is an emphatic ‘yes’. Senior defensive end Adrian Clayborn (70 tackles, 11.5 sacks) was a 1st Team All-Big Ten selection last fall and he is one of the best players in the country. He’s also one of three senior starters on the line, as defensive tackles Christian Ballard (54 tackles, 5.5 sacks) and Karl Klug (65 tackles, 4 sacks) return to form the Big Ten’s top pairing in the middle. Junior end Broderick Binns (63 tackles, 6 sacks) rounds out this elite starting group and he will form one of the country’s best pair of rush ends with Clayborn. To be quite honest, this is probably the best defensive line in the entire country and these four should wreak some serous havoc on opposing offenses this fall.

Where the Hawkeyes have a little bit of rebuilding work to do is at linebacker. Senior Jeremiha Hunter (89 tackles, 1 INT) finished 2 nd on the team in tackles last fall but he is the only returning starter after 1st Team All-American Pat Angerer and 2nd Team All-Big Ten choice A.J. Edds were drafted in the 2nd and 4th rounds, respectively. However, senior Jeff Tarpinian (20 tackles) has played extensively in the last two seasons and should step into one of the vacancies without a hitch. Furthermore, the new starters will be playing behind a loaded D-Line and will benefit from Hunter’s experience in his 3rd season in the starting lineup. Expect another strong campaign from the Hawkeye ‘backers, though they might not be as dominant as the Angerer-led group last fall.

The good news keeps rolling in for Iowa as their secondary is absolutely loaded. While they have to replace cornerback Amari Spievey, who left a year early for the NFL and was picked in the 3rd round, every other major contributor returns from the Big Ten’s best group of defensive backs. At safety, junior Tyler Sash (85 tackles, 6 sacks, 1st Team All-Big Ten) and senior Brett Greenwood (55 tackles, 3 INT) will be the conference’s top pairing as both are ball hawks and great tacklers. Meanwhile, junior corner Shaun Prater (41 tackles, 2 sacks) is coming off of a strong campaign opposite Spievey last year and should be in for another effective season. Replacing Spievey’s elite cover skills won’t be easy, but juniors Jordan Bernstine and Will Lowe should provide solid play opposite Prater. Factor in a murderous pass rush to force quarterbacks into mistakes and this is clearly the conference’s top group of defensive backs.

Really, there is no weakness on this defense. Yes, the loss of a shutdown cornerback is a concern and yes, the Hawkeyes miss star linebacker Pat Angerer, but the simple fact of the matter is that the defensive front will be a rampaging force this season and that alone will ensure another great campaign. Factor in a secondary comprised of ball hawks and there is no doubt that Iowa will have one of the country’s top defenses for the 3rd consecutive season.

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SCHEDULE

Iowa has a challenging but extremely fair schedule. Their non-conference portion includes a home tilt against rival Iowa State and a visit to Pac Ten contender Arizona, two games that will be tough tests. However, the other two games are home affairs against patsy opponents, so the Hawkeyes will still have two warm up outings for Big Ten play.

For a team that has to face all of the top contenders in the league, Iowa has a great schedule. They host Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State, a direct payback for the country’s most brutal road schedule in 2009. That means that their most difficult conference games will take place at Kinnick Stadium, a huge advantage for a team that boasts a 12-2 mark in Iowa City during the last two seasons. The only drawback is that the road schedule will be tougher than most fans would expect since Iowa has always struggled with Michigan, has lost four of their last five against Northwestern and has to visit rival Minnesota to close the year. Still, the Hawkeyes could not have asked for a better home schedule and that gives them an excellent chance to win the conference.

OUTLOOK

It is important to remember that Iowa didn’t have such great success last season because of their offensive performance; they had such great success last season in spite of it! That shouldn’t be a problem this fall because the Hawkeyes are so much more experienced at tailback and Stanzi should do a much better job protecting the football. Iowa’s offense should really be one of the best in the conference now that they have some balance and I expect the offense to avoid putting the team in early holes like they did so often in 2009.

And the defense is still a bone-crushing force. The front four are one of the absolute best units in the entire country and Clayborn is a future 1st round NFL draft pick. This line should continue to harass quarterbacks while performing very well against the run and that is a great sign for success. Furthermore, there are a ton of excellent pass defenders in the secondary and it will be extremely difficult for opposing teams to throw the ball against Iowa this fall. With Hunter anchoring another solid group of linebackers, the Hawkeyes should be one of the country’s best defenses.

With so much talent and experience, Iowa is a legitimate contender not only for the Big Ten Championship, but for the National Title as well! After all, they know what it takes to start a season on a major undefeated roll after last fall’s 9-0 opening run. While they have a tough road test at Arizona in September, their toughest Big Ten games all come at home, making a championship campaign a very real possibility.

I expect Iowa to open up with a 6-0 record, including wins at home against Penn State and Iowa State and on the road against Michigan and Arizona, heading into their rivalry clash in Kinnick Stadium with Wisconsin. As the Badgers are a legitimate conference championship contender themselves, this could be the game of the week in late October! Luckily for the Hawkeyes, the Badgers will come to Iowa City on the heels of a major showdown with Ohio State and they could be banged up after a physical affair. I’m predicting Iowa’s success running the football and slowing the Wisconsin ground attack will result in their 3 rd consecutive victory against their rivals.

After that victory, Iowa should be in position to continue their unbeaten run, though games against Michigan State and at Northwestern won’t be easy contests. Heading into a late season showdown against heavyweight Ohio State, they have a great chance to be 10-0 and ranked among the top five teams in the entire country. Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, I think that the Buckeyes will repeat their success from 2009 and end Iowa’s unbeaten run in a close-fought contest to claim the Big Ten Championship on enemy turf.

But even with the prediction of a disappointing loss, there should be no doubt that 2010 will be a special year in Iowa City. After all, Iowa hasn’t been to the Rose Bowl in 20 years! That’s where I expect them to end up for their 3rd BCS game under Ferentz after OSU moves on to the BCS Championship Game. However, the mere fact that I’m only predicting one loss means that this team is a legitimate National Title Contender and should be one of the country’s best teams. The Iowa Hawkeyes are my choice to finish 2nd in the Big Ten Conference in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 11-1 (7-1 Big Ten)