2010 Indiana Hoosiers Football Preview

2009 Results: 4-8, No Bowl

Head Coach: Bill Lynch (4th year, 14-23 @ IU, 51-76 Overall)

Home Venue: Memorial Stadium (56,692), Bloomington, Indiana

While Indiana didn’t have the year that they were hoping for in 2009, the Hoosiers showed a lot of fight over the course of the season. Yes, their 1-7 conference record landed them in the league basement for the 2nd consecutive year, but IU lost three Big Ten games by a field goal or less, so they were really only a few plays away from bowl eligibility. This fall, Indiana returns a veteran offense and has a great schedule. Can the Hoosiers take advantage and earn their 2nd postseason berth in the last four years under Head Coach Bill Lynch?

OFFENSE

Indiana’s offense was improved last fall as they transitioned to a more pass-heavy attack. While the Hoosiers only upped their scoring by three points per game, there is certainly reason to expect further advancement this fall with a veteran squad.

Senior quarterback Ben Chappell (2,941 yards, 17 TDs, 15 INT in ’09) had a strong season in his first year starting as he led the Hoosiers to the 4 th rated aerial attack in the conference. One major issue he has to rectify is the number of interceptions that he threw, which tied for the most among Big Ten signal callers. However, I think he’ll have a very strong season throwing the ball, especially with the returning talent at wide receiver. Junior Tandon Doss (77 catches, 962 yards, 5 TDs) earned 1st Team All-Big Ten honors last year and classmate Damario Belcher (61 catches, 770 yards, 5 TDs) was extremely productive as well. With a solid 3rd receiver in senior Terrance Turner (46 catches, 443 yards, 1 TD), the Indiana passing game will rank among the best in the Big Ten this season.

What could be a big problem is the ground game. While sophomore Darius Willis (607 yards, 6 TDs) was solid last fall, he missed spring practice and there isn’t much depth behind him. In fact, Indiana’s running backs accounted for an unfathomable minus 40 rush yards in the first half of the Spring Game! While true frosh Antonio Banks showed promise as a backup runner, the Hoosiers will struggle to improve upon last year’s 10 th place finish in the Big Ten on the ground.

Another reason for my lack of faith in the running game is the Indiana O-Line, which loses Rodger Saffold (2 nd round NFL Draft pick) and Pete Saxon from last year’s unit, both of whom were four year starters. Now, there is some good talent on hand, especially sophomore center Will Matte, but the loss of two key players will really hurt. The good news is that senior guard Cody Faulkner should be healthy this season after missing all of the 2009 campaign. Faulkner started for the ’08 team that finished 6 th in the conference in rushing and he will be a big boost for IU.

Overall, I definitely think that Indiana will continue their upwards trend on the scoreboard. Chappell will take much better care of the football in his 2nd season under center and should put up big numbers with his fleet group of receivers. Yes, the running game is a concern and yes, the O-Line is somewhat unproven, but I think that the Hoosiers could jump into the middle of the Big Ten pack in scoring this fall thanks to their high-flying passing game.

DEFENSE

After all of the happy news on offense, I’m afraid that reality is going to bite for the Indiana defense. First of all, this was the 2nd worst unit in the Big Ten last season. Second of all, they have to replace most of their effective players. Finally, last year’s lowly finish was actually one of the school’s best defensive showings in the last decade! With so many factors working against them, can Indiana maintain a decent defense in 2010?

The good news about the defensive front is IU’s defensive tackles. Sophomores Adam Replogle (32 tackles, 4 sacks) and Larry Black (29 tackles, 1.5 sacks) played well as freshmen last season, staring every game. Both players are the type that could become bulwarks against the run and they will both be tougher to move off the line of scrimmage with a year under their belts. While the Hoosiers should be tougher against the run, they lost two multi-season starters at defensive end and that will severely hurt their pass rush.

Meanwhile, the linebackers are going to be reloading. Senior Tyler Replogle (80 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT), Adam’s big brother, was the 2nd leading stopper on the ’09 team and could easily break the 100 tackle mark this season. However, he’s the only returning starter and there is a massive experience gap at the other two spots. The ‘backers will dearly miss departed senior Matt Mayberry (108 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 3 INT) and I’m afraid that this group won’t be as good as the 2009 edition.

But the biggest concern on the Indiana defense is the secondary. Senior cornerback Adrian Burks (21 tackles) is the only player who saw any notable amount of playing time last season and the pickings were so slim that Lynch moved senior Mitch Evans from wide receiver to safety to try to solidify the lineup. Evans was the team’s 4th leading receiver last fall with 33 catches, so that’s quite a sacrifice to make. It should also underscore the coaching staff’s fears about the state of their pass defense that a converted wideout is expected to start right away. When you throw in the loss of a few great pass rushers up front, the picture becomes very dire for the Hoosier aerial defense.

Overall, Indiana’s porous pass defense is going to really hurt this fall. While I’m confident that the defensive line will perform well against the run, the lack of any proven pass rushers at the DE spots will be a serious impediment to a patchwork secondary’s ability to stick with opposing receivers. In a season where the Big Ten is loaded with experienced quarterbacks, the secondary could be a fatal flaw and the Hoosiers are a prime candidate to finish dead last in the league through the air.

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SCHEDULE

Indiana has a non-conference schedule that is tailor-made for them to earn a bowl berth. The Hoosiers host Akron, Arkansas State and D-1AA Towson while traveling to lowly Western Kentcky outside of Big Ten play! Let’s be very honest here: If Indiana doesn’t go 4-0 against that lineup, then shame on them.

But the Big Ten schedule will be much more difficult. While the first six games of the season include their four patsy games, they also include a visit from Michigan and a trip to Ohio State. Indiana nearly beat the Wolverines in the Big House last year, could they pull an upset and start 5-1? The 2nd half also begins in favorable fashion, as they travel to Illinois while hosting Northwestern. Unfortunately, the stretch run is going to be really difficult as they play Iowa, Wisconsin and Penn State in three consecutive weeks before closing at archrival Purdue. What makes that run particularly difficult is the fact that Indiana was paid off by Penn State to move their game from Bloomington to Washington D.C., making it a de facto PSU home game, and that leaves IU with only three home conference games this fall. But even with the shameful selling of a home tilt, this is a schedule that sets the Hoosiers up perfectly to get to six wins.

OUTLOOK

Indiana is going to be very interesting to watch this season. Their passing attack will be one of the best in the Big Ten but their running game will fall on the other end of the spectrum. However, a poor running game won’t hold this offense back from scoring more points thanks to a good group of playmakers and a senior quarterback and that will be enough to keep them in most games.

But their pass defense is a major concern. With a completely revamped secondary and the loss of their top pass rushers, opposing quarterbacks will feast on the Hoosiers this fall. It is a shame that they’re so inexperienced in the back because their defensive tackles will definitely be improved and I won’t be surprised if they perform much better on the ground.

Nevertheless, Indiana has a great chance to earn a bowl berth in 2010. Their non-conference schedule is pathetically simple and should afford them a 4-0 record outside of league play. On top of that, this team should build confidence early with their light schedule before embarking upon Big Ten action. Here’s the other thing to remember: This team lost three tight games in league play last fall and if only one of those games can turn in their favor this season then the Hoosiers could end up going bowling. I think that they’ll win a home game against either Northwestern or Michigan and combined with a road victory at Illinois, that will be enough to earn postseason eligibility. While 6-6 is the best I can see IU finishing thanks to a brutal closing kick, it’ll be more than enough to validate Bill Lynch’s continued prosperity as head coach. The Indiana Hoosiers are my pick to finish tied for 7th in the Big Ten Conference in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 6-6 (2-6 Big Ten)