2010 Illinois Fighting Illini Football Preview

2009 Results: 3-9, No Bowl

Head Coach: Ron Zook (6th year, 21-39 @ IU, 44-53 Overall)

Home Venue: Illinois Memorial Stadium (62,870), Champaign, Illinois

Illinois’ 2009 season is really simple to sum up: How does Ron Zook still have a job? The Illini were loaded with talented upperclassmen last fall and many people (yours truly included) pegged them for a big year. Yes, they were coming off of a disappointing 5-7 season on the heels of the school’s first Rose Bowl appearance in two decades, but this team had a 4th year starter at quarterback, multiple future NFL players to catch his passes and a deep roster thanks to Zook’s stellar early recruiting. Yet the Illini ran into some injury issues and completely fell apart, finishing with an awful 3-9 record. That marked the 4th losing season in five years for the Zooker and his highly-touted recruiting classes have largely been wasted. After all, talent hasn’t been the issue considering that Illinois had three offensive players drafted in April. However, Zook’s failed tenure didn’t end, largely due to an administrative scandal at the university’s highest levels, and his continued employment has made a lot of fans question the school’s commitment to fielding a winning football team. Needless to say, there is no coach in the country that is sitting on hotter seat.

And Zook is fully aware of it: He blew up his coaching staff this offseason and will have six new assistants on the sidelines this fall. This season marks a huge opportunity for him to cling to his job because the Illini have a very favorable schedule, but the elephant in the room is Zook’s notoriously poor in-game decisions. Can Illinois defy all odds and get back to the postseason?

OFFENSE

The offense will look significantly different this year. After finishing 7 th in the conference in scoring at a paltry 24 points per game, Zook brought in Paul Petrino as the new offensive coordinator. If the last name rings a bell, it is because he’s the younger brother of Arkansas Head Coach Bobby Petrino and the brothers have had a lot of success molding strong passing games at both Arkansas and Louisville. However, Petrino has to work with a revamped offense that loses a lot of top end talent. Can Illinois field a productive attack this fall in spite of all the changes?

The primary focus of the offense has to be the running game. Illinios has two very talented junior tailbacks as Mikel LeShoure (734 yards, 5 TDs in ‘09) and Jason Ford (588 yards, 4 TDs) should form one of the conference’s better tandems after powering the Illini to an average of 200 rush yards per game last fall. They should also get some help from the offensive line, which brings back three starters from last season’s front. While junior Jeff Allen is the most experienced player entering his 3rd season in the starting lineup, this group is far more seasoned than the front that took over last year. Expect another strong year running the ball for the Illini.

However, their ground game probably won’t approach 200 yards per game. That’s because senior quarterback Juice Williams ran for over 500 yards last fall and skewed their average upwards with his athleticism. This year, redshirt freshman Nate Scheelhaase is expected to start and he doesn’t bring nearly the athleticism to the table that Williams did for the last four seasons. However, Scheelhaase might end up being a better passer in Petrino’s aerial-friendly system, so perhaps the production won’t drop as badly as you would expect when the Big Ten’s 5th all-time leader in total yards (Williams) graduates.

Unfortunately for Scheelhaase, he won’t enjoy the same level of elite receivers that went underutilized during Williams’ tenure. Gone is elite wideout Arrelious Benn (2nd round pick) and so is top-tier tight end Michael Hoomanawanui (5th round pick). Inexplicably, both players barely made an impact last season, so the actual production lost is far less than their talent would indicate. The top returning target at wide receiver is senior Jarred Fayson (16 catches, 218 yards, 1 TD), who was very disappointing in 2009 after receiving so much preseason hype opposite Benn. Another player to keep an eye on is senior Eddie McGee, who was Williams’ backup for three years before moving to wide receiver this spring. Needless to say, this is an unproven and underwhelming group of pass catchers.

In the end, Illinois is going to have to fall back on LeShoure and Ford to carry a heavy burden if they expect to score a lot of points this season. While Scheelhaase is a talented young player, he has an extremely thin group of receivers and has never thrown a pass in college. Expect the Illini to be very one dimensional on offense this year and that means that they’re going to struggle to score points.

DEFENSE

But all of the wasted talent and underachievement on offense pales in comparison to the miserable performance of the Illinois defense. The Fighting Illini didn’t live up to their nickname as they finished dead last in the Big Ten in total yards allowed (403 per game), points allowed (30.2 per game) and sacks (19) while also ending up 10th in pass defense (249 yards per game) and 8th in run defense (154 yards per game)! That miserable performance is why new defensive coordinator Vic Koenning was brought in but he doesn’t have nearly as much talent to work with as the new offensive staff. Can Koenning cobble together a respectable defense this fall?

The defensive front should inspire a little bit of confidence. Senior Clay Nurse (31 tackles, 5.5 sacks) was the team’s top pass rusher, but he will run into a lot of double teams thanks to his production and experience, seeing how he’s the only returning starter on the D-Line. However, junior Corey Liuget (36 tackles, 2.5 sacks) is a prime candidate for a breakout season at defensive tackle, so the Illini will have two strong linemen on their new three man line this year. Unfortunately, highly talented (but troubled) DT Josh Brent won’t be part of the defense as he was not welcomed back by Zook, leaving Illinois with a major hole to fill.

At linebacker, all three starters are back from last season’s group. Headlined by talented but oft-injured junior Martez Wilson, this group looks primed to take a big step forward if he is back to full health. Furthermore, classmate Ian Thomas (95 tackles, 1 sack) led the team in stops last fall, giving the Illini a solid pair of tacklers to make plays. One major change in the defense this season involves the introduction of a hybrid DE/LB position called the ‘bandit’. Sophomores Justin Staples and Michael Buchannon showed well in spring, so perhaps they can boost the pass rush.

The most talented position that the Fighting Illini have on defense is at cornerback. Junior Tavon Wilson (74 tackles, 1 INT) established himself as a top-tier defender last season and he will pair with exceptionally athletic sophomore Terry Hawthorne (30 tackles, 1 INT) to give Illinois one of the league’s better cover tandems. Hawthorne has ‘big time player’ written all over him as he was extremely impressive as a true freshman last season. After the Illini finished last in the NCAA in interceptions last fall with an unbelievably low five picks, Wilson and Hawthorne alone could exceed that total this year. Where there is some concern is at the safety position: sophomore Walter Aikens was suspended after pleading guilty to burglary in April and his return is unlikely. That hurts because he was expected to be a starter and leaves Illinois extremely thin at the back end.

Overall, the Illini won’t be as bad defensively as they were in 2009. Their D-Line should be pretty productive thanks to Liuget and Nurse and the tackling combination of Thomas and Wilson at linebacker should help bolster their below-average run defense. But where Illinois should see them most improvement is in the secondary. Hawthorne and Wilson could develop into one of the conference’s toughest pair of cornerbacks to throw against and that alone should help slow opposing passing games. Furthermore, the addition of the ‘bandit’ position will result in more pressure on opposing quarterbacks and that will also be a big help for the secondary. While the lack of experience at safety is a major concern, expect Illinois to force more turnovers and allow fewer points in 2010.

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SCHEDULE

Unfortunately for Illinios, their non-league schedule begins with nemesis Missouri. The Tigers have won all five games in the Arch Rivalry since it moved to St. Louis and none of the games have really been that close. A season-ending visit to Fresno State will also be a tough trip: The Bulldogs beat the Illini at home on the final play of the season last year.

But the Big Ten schedule is significantly more favorable. Illinois only has three true conference road games since their clash with rival Northwestern in historic Wrigley Field counts against the Wildcats’ home ledger! Furthermore, the Fighting Illini avoid both Wisconsin and Iowa, two of the three teams in the conference that are likely to begin the year ranked in the top ten! While the first three games to open league play are daunting (Ohio State, at Penn State, at Michigan State), this is about as favorable of a Big Ten slate as Zook could ever hope for.

OUTLOOK

There is a lot to like about the Illini on paper. Their offense will have a strong ground game that features two strong runners, their defense should be much more dynamic up front and their cornerbacks are excellent. Heck, they even have a really great schedule! But all of that gets thrown out the window when you see the name of the man in charge: Ron Zook.

For all of Zook’s flaws, you have to really give him credit: He’s an excellent recruiter. He brought most of Florida’s 2006 Championship team to Gainesville and followed that up by bringing in multiple top 25-rated classes to Champaign in his first few seasons. However, that exceptional talent went to waste in the last two years and the Rose Bowl campaign of 2007 seems more and more like a lucky convergence of events than it does the product of Zook’s good coaching. In fact, ‘good coaching’ is typically never associated with any Ron Zook-led teams. If the top-end talent of the last two years resulted in eight combined wins, how will this significantly less gifted squad do this fall? Even with a really favorable schedule, I simply cannot put any trust into the Zooker after the failures of the past two seasons and I think that Illinios is going to be really hard-pressed to earn a bowl berth. In fact, the Illinois Fighting Illini are my pick to finish last in the Big Ten Conference and that will finally result in a coaching change in Champaign that is long overdue.

PREDICTED RESULT: 4-8 (1-7 Big Ten)