2010 Idaho Vandals Football Preview

2009 Results: 8-5, Won Humanitarian Bowl vs. Bowling Green

Head Coach: Rob Akey (4th year @ Idaho, 11-26 Overall)

Home Venue: Kibbie Dome (16,000) Moscow, Idaho

2009 was nothing short of the best season in the history of Idaho football as the Vandals shocked the world by winning eight games, including the Humanitarian Bowl. Statistically, their record made no sense as they scored fewer points than they allowed and had a double digit negative turnover margin, but Head Coach Rob Akey’s ability to lead his teams to close wins was the difference. Can that magic be recaptured in Moscow this season?

OFFENSE

The offense was an absolute revelation last season, nearly doubling their 2008 production to score 32.7 points per game. Driven by now-senior QB Nathan Enderle (2,906 yards, 22 TD, 9 INT), Idaho finished in the top half of the league in offense.

However, the offense has been heavily gutted in the offseason. The offensive line returns only one starter and the team’s leading tailback and receiver both graduated! While there are experienced options at both wideout (Four players return with 30+ catches) and tailback (the two remaining members of the tailback by committee situation combined for over 1,000 yards last year) that should produce players ready to step up, the lack of depth up front is a major concern.

Furthermore, Idaho’s production jumped up by nearly two touchdowns per game last season! That’s a major leap and it worries me that they’re going to fall back some this fall after what was by all accounts an exceptional year. With only Enderle remaining among the key playmakers, I expect the Vandals to fall back on offense in 2010.

DEFENSE

You have to be impressed that Idaho won eight games last season despite allowing an average of 36 points per game. But some perspective: That was Idaho’s best defensive result since 2003! Needless to say, the 2010 edition (which features 10 returning starters) has to be better for Idaho to hope to repeat their success of a year ago.

Where they found some success last year was against the run, holding opponents to 155 yards per game. That was the 3rd best mark in the WAC and every starter is back from the front seven. Senior linebacker JoJo Dickson (79 tackles, 2 INT) is the leader and was named a 2nd team All-WAC performer in 2010.

Where there is some serious concern is defending against the pass. While senior safety Shiloh Keoh (113 tackles, 3 INT) was a 1st Team All-WAC choice last year, he presided over a unit that allowed opponents to throw for nearly 280 yards per game, 2nd worst among WAC teams. One major problem for the Vandals is that they didn’t have a great pass rush and only registered 15 sacks last season. For this defense to really make a major improvement, that has to change.

Unfortunately, with the same cast of characters back, I don’t see anyone beyond 2nd Team All-WAC DE Aaron Lavarias (4 sacks in 2009) capable of stepping up as a major pass rushing threat. Expect a slightly better performance on the scoreboard this year but Idaho will be no better than average defensively.

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SCHEDULE

In a season that includes 13 road games thanks to a trip to the Hawaiian Islands, Idaho has a manageable schedule on tap. Featuring six home games, they host archrival Boise State on a Friday night one week after co-favorite Nevada comes to Moscow. The non-conference portion also features four winnable games (a visit to Nebraska is a virtual certain loss) against UNLV, Colorado State, Western Michigan and North Dakota.

OUTLOOK

I’m afraid that I don’t see great things for Idaho in 2010. While Enderle is back to pilot the offense, he is a statue at quarterback and teams are going to get a lot of pressure on him with the revamped offensive line. Furthermore, I’m not confident that their defense will be markedly better than last season. Finally, Idaho went 5-1 in games decided by less than a touchdown, a mark that is even more shocking when you see their -10 turnover margin. I simply can’t see them sustaining their good fortune in tight affairs when the turnovers are going against them.

While the Vandals don’t have a difficult schedule, the problem is that they had an even easier schedule last year and needed a lot of breaks to earn a 4-4 conference record! After the success of 2009, I’m afraid that 2010 is going to be a big step back to the mediocrity that defined most of the last decade for Idaho.

PREDICTED RESULT: 3-8 (2-6 WAC)