2010 Houston Cougars Football Preview

2009 Results: 10-4, Lost Armed Forces Bowl vs. Air Force

Head Coach: Kevin Sumlin (3rd year @ Houston, 18-9 Overall)

Home Venue: Robertson Stadium (32,000) Houston, Texas

2009 was supposed to be Houston’s year to capture the C-USA title. They were loaded on offense, improved on defense and led by one of the country’s best up and coming coaches in Kevin Sumlin. After beating two Big XII opponents in September, expectations went up even further and the Cougars largely didn’t disappoint, being nationally ranked for ten weeks and winning the C-USA West Division. But turnovers killed them in the championship game and they limped to a 0-2 finish that culminated in a shellacking by Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl.

So will Houston remember their disappointing ending and use it to drive their success this year? The offense is stacked once more, led by Heisman Trophy candidate Chase Keenum, and they should be capable of outscoring anyone they play. The Cougars will have to deal with the glare of the spotlight and they will also likely begin the season ranked. Can Sumlin guide this team through the distractions and win Houston’s first C-USA title since 2006?

OFFENSE

As I mentioned, Keenum is the driving force behind this team’s great offense. He was named a 2nd Team All-American after throwing for 5,671 yards and 44 TDs against only 15 INT, numbers that are generally only found in video games. I suppose that is what happens when you attempt an unfathomable 700 passes in a single season! Needless to say, he is on the short list when discussing the best quarterbacks in the country.

But his supporting cast is also loaded. His top four receivers return and every single one of them had 70 or more catches in 2009! Senior James Cleveland (104 catches, 1,214 yards, 14 TDs) was a 3rd Team All-American and juniors Tyron Carrier (91 catches, 1,024 yards, 7 TDs) and Patrick Edwards (85 catches, 1,021 yards, 6 TDs) both eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark, leaving Keenum with three 1,000 yard receivers!

His tailbacks are also exceptional. Sophomore Charles Sims (698 rush yards, 70 catches, 759 receiving yards, 10 total TDs) was the C-USA Freshman of the Year! He’ll split carries with junior Bryce Beall (670 rush yards, 32 catches, 311 receiving yards, 10 total TDs), giving the Cougars two star-caliber players in the backfield with Keenum.

Finally, the O-Line is stacked once more with three returning starters. Junior guard Curtis Thompson was a 1st Team C-USA selection last season and is likely the top player in the group. With a boost at the other guard spot from former nose tackle Isaiah Thompson (47 tackles), who earned a starting spot in the spring, I don’t expect this unit to miss a beat.

There is only one way to sum this up: Houston has the best offense in Conference USA and it isn’t even worth debating. They have the most prolific passer in the country, a fleet of talented receivers, two tailbacks who could each surpass the 1,000 total yard mark this season and a good line protecting their Heisman candidate. The Cougars will almost certainly average 40 points per game in 2010.

DEFENSE

Where the Cougars ran into trouble last season was on defense, giving up 30 points per game. On first glance, you’d think that the pace that their offense plays with would be the reason for their struggles as the defense would be on the field more often, but that was not the reason or their disappointing scoring total. The culprit for their struggles was a terrible run defense that allowed 227 yards per game on the ground, by far the worst in the league! Even terrible Tulane didn’t approach such mediocrity.

So upgrading the D-Line would have to be the primary concern this season and it makes Williams’ move to the O-Line a bit of a head-scratcher. Junior DE David Hunter (57 tackles, 4 sacks) is the only returnee up front as the Cougars change to a 3-4 set and he has earned rave reviews from the coaching staff. Meanwhile, senior transfer Matangi Tonga, who played at BYU before embarking on a Mormon mission, is expected to fill the other DE spot after Houston beat out multiple Pac Ten schools for his services. I have to think that this line will be more effective.

It will also help to have a 4th linebacker on the field to make plays behind a line that will be focused on occupying blockers. Junior Marcus McGraw (156 tackles, 4 sacks) was a 1st Team C-USA selection last season and will be the anchor of a unit that includes impressive sophomore Phil Steward (89 tackles), who earned a starting spot as a true freshman. The concept of having greater mobility in the front seven is a good way to kick-start an improvement against the run and the change on defense shows that he coaching staff has given the problem its full attention.

The defensive backs are going to be pretty good once more for the Cougars this season. Not a surprise, considering the offense that they practice against, but there is some good talent on hand. Senior corner Jamal Robinson (58 tackles, 5 INT) is one of the league’s better cover corners and junior safety Nick Saenz (114 tackles) is extremely helpful in run support. I think that these two should be the core of a good pass defense.

Overall, I really like that Sumlin and staff are working hard to improve their run defense with the scheme change and I think it will bear fruit in a big way. Of course, now that opponents won’t be able to run the ball at will, they will have to throw it more but the net return should be fewer yards allowed, less time on the field and more time for their prolific offense to score points.

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SCHEDULE

Houston has a very interesting schedule. It isn’t often that a C-USA team has multiple BCS conference opponents circling their game on the schedule but with return games against Texas Tech and Mississippi State, two teams that the Cougars beat last year, that will be the case for Houston this season. Add in a visit to UCLA and you have a tough non-conference portion. In league play, Houston has a tough draw, facing both Central Florida and Southern Mississippi from the East. In fact, their final third of the season begins with visits from UCF and rival Tulsa before they have to travel to USM and Texas Tech to close the year! This is a challenging schedule, to be sure.

OUTLOOK

Houston is just loaded this season. Their offense is a near lock to repeat as the country’s most productive through the air and they have a great chance at being the nation’s leader in scoring as well. To cap things off, Keenum could easily make a trip to New York City in December as a Heisman Trophy finalist. Meanwhile, I think that the defense will improve greatly on the ground with the change to a 3-4 defense and that should decrease their points allowed per game. They do have a tough non-conference schedule and it seems unlikely that they’ll repeat last year’s 4-0 non-league mark, but I think that the Cougars could easily win two or three games outside of C-USA.

In Conference USA, the Cougars compete in the tougher of the two divisions. However, they are simply the most talented team in the league and even with the tough draw from the East I think they will emerge with a 2nd consecutive C-USA West Division Championship.

But it doesn’t stop there for the Cougs. I think that Houston will enter the championship game with two major advantages: They’ll have home field thanks to the best record in the league and they’ll have last season’s failure in the championship game to motivate them. In fact, I fully believe that loss will be their motivation for the entire season! I expect Houston to win the Conference USA Championship in 2010 and head to the Liberty Bowl with a 10-3 record.

PREDICTED RESULT: 9-3 (7-1 CONFERENCE USA)