2010 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Football Preview

2009 Results: 11-3, ACC Champions, Lost Orange Bowl vs. Iowa

Head Coach: Paul Johnson (3rd Year, 20-7 @ Tech, 127-46 Overall)

Home Venue: Bobby Dodd Stadium (55,000), Atlanta, Georgia

2009 was one of the most successful seasons in the history of Georgia Tech football. The Yellow Jackets won the ACC Championship for the first time since their national championship campaign in 1990 and their eleven wins tied that team for the 2nd most victories in a season. While the Ramblin’ Wreck fell short of tying the school’s single season record for victories against Iowa in a frigid Orange Bowl, there is no doubt that last season was Tech’s best effort in the past two decades.

Head Coach Paul Johnson is also widely considered to be one of the best coaches in the entire country. In fact, his thirteen year head coaching career has only seen him post one losing campaign, his first year at Navy. However, he’s won two D-1AA National Championships, he’s coached seven teams to ten win campaigns and it seems like his teams are always competitive. But can that great run continue this season after losing two of the offense’s biggest playmakers and a few elite defenders?

OFFENSE

The Yellow Jacket attack was a dominant force on the ground last year, piling up 295 yards per game through their excellent option attack. Johnson couldn’t have found a better quarterback to run his offense than senior Josh Nesbitt (1,701 pass yards, 10 pass TDs, 5 INT, 1,037 rush yards, 18 rush TDs in ‘09) when he arrived at Tech two years ago and Nesbitt’s 1st Team All-ACC selection last year is a testament to that fact. While he isn’t a great passer, this offense doesn’t require him to throw more than a dozen times per game.

Nesbitt is the top returning rusher from last season, as top rusher Jonathan Dwyer (1395 yards, 14 TDs) is now a Pittsburgh Steeler. However, there are still plenty of talented runners returning this season as senior Anthony Allen (618 yards, 6 TDs) should step into Dwyer’s role at the ‘B-Back’ position with ease. As the B-Back runner lines up in the same spot as a tailback in a traditional set, I think he is a great candidate to be a 1,000 yard rusher this fall. ‘A-Backs’ (the guys who come in motion before the snap) Roddy Jones (345 yards, 3 TDs) and Marcus Wright (190 yards, 3 TDs) should also see increased roles this season, particularly Jones, who ran for 690 yards as a true freshman two years ago. This will still be a fantastic rush offense in 2010, though their numbers might drop somewhat with the loss of the Dwyer, the 2008 ACC Offensive Player of the Year.

The O-Line is much more of a concern, as only two starters return. The good news is that senior center Sean Bedford was a 1st Team All-ACC selection last year and will be a great anchor to build around. My real concern is at guard, where they lose two multi-year starters and a 1st Team All-ACC selection. In their place will be likely be a group of underclassmen and losing so much experience is going to hurt in the early going. However, the blocking scheme for the option attack has a much shorter learning curve because of the rarity of pass protection calls, so the new starters should get acclimated quickly. With the veteran presence of Bradford in the middle, I think that the Yellow Jacket line will be effective enough to allow for another strong running game.

Notice that there has been virtually no mention of the passing game. That’s because Tech’s aerial attack last season was largely focused on one player, departed 1st round pick Demaryius ‘Bay-Bay’ Thomas, who accounted for 65% of the team’s pass yards. To be quite honest, their passing game completely relies on play action and most of Thomas’ catches involved him getting behind defenses and winning a jump ball to make the catch. Without his great talents, I think that Tech’s passing offense is going to be a significantly reduced threat.

This season’s Tech offense seems a lot more likely to represent the 2008 edition, which had virtually no passing game. I think that the Ramblin’ Wreck will rely more on their A-Backs because I don’t think that they’ll be able to replace Thomas’ big play ability through the air. However, with Nesbitt at the controls, this will still be a powerful rushing attack that takes up a lot of time and eats up a lot of yards. Expect Georgia Tech to run an effective but less explosive offense this season that will finish in the top half of the ACC in scoring.

DEFENSE

The big change for Tech this offseason was the hire of former Virginia Head Coach Al Groh as their new defensive coordinator. With the new DC comes a change in philosophy, as the Yellow Jackets will line up in the 3-4 set that has recently taken the NFL by storm. I wonder if part of this scheme change was to compensate for the loss of the ACC Defensive Player of the Year, Derrick Morgan, who was a 1st round pick in April by Tennessee. Can the new philosophy help the Ramblin’ Wreck improve against the run this season after finishing in the bottom half of the conference in rush defense?

Up front, there isn’t a lot of returning talent as junior nose tackle Logan Walls (25 tackles, 2 sacks) is the most productive returner. However, their game plan will change in the new scheme as the front three will be tasked with occupying as many blockers as possible to allow the linebackers to make plays. Suited ideally for this task is sophomore defensive end Izaan Cross, who is 6’4” and 290 pounds. While this line won’t be much of a pass rushing threat, they could end up being much more effective against the run.

At linebacker, there are two returning starters. Senior Brad Jefferson (95 tackles) was the team’s top tackler last season and he will be paired at inside linebacker with junior Steven Sylvester (40 tackles, 3 INT), whose pass defending skills should be emphasized in the new set. As for the outside linebackers, keep an eye on senior Anthony Egbuniwe (19 tackles, 1.5 sacks), who could be a breakout candidate as a pass rusher.

The secondary is the most experienced part of the Ramblin’ Wreck defense. Senior cornerback Mario Butler (45 tackles, 2 INT) will pair with junior Jarred Tarrant (58 tackles, 2 INT) to form a solid set of cover corners that has a lot of starting experience. Meanwhile, the safeties are also a seasoned unit that will feature seniors Mario Edwards (36 tackles) and Dominique Reese (28 tackles, 1 INT). The defensive backs are loaded with upperclassmen and should be very effective this fall against the pass.

Overall, this isn’t a particularly impressive defense. The front end might be more successful against the run with the switch to a 3-4 defense but I think that their pass rush will suffer because no one is going to come close to Morgan’s ability to harass the quarterback. In a division full of run-first teams, Tech has to hold up better on the ground this fall and I’m not really sold on their ability to do so with an underwhelming and young set of linemen. In the end, this will probably be a middle of the pack defense in the ACC thanks to an offensive that will once more rank among the national leaders in time of possession, limiting the time this defense is on the field.

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SCHEDULE

The staple of every Georgia Tech non-conference schedule is their rivalry clash with Georgia. After breaking a long losing streak two years ago, Tech fell back into the losing column last season when the Bulldogs dominated the ground game in Atlanta. This fall, the game takes place in Athens. The rest of the non-league schedule is also going to be tough as they have to travel to Kansas while hosting Sun Belt favorite Middle Tennessee State.

In ACC play, the cross-division draw is pretty favorable for the Ramblin’ Wreck as they face Clemson, Wake Forest and NC State, avoiding favorite Florida State. In divisional play, they also have to travel to Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Overall, Tech only has six home games and their two most difficult non-league games are on the road. This will be a tough slate for the Jackets.

OUTLOOK

The formula for success this fall is pretty simple for Paul Johnson’s team: Run the ball, control the clock and keep the opposing offense off of the field. With one of the league’s most experienced quarterbacks in charge of the offense and a fleet of strong runners supporting him, I think that Tech will find a lot of success using that formula. However, this offense will not be nearly as explosive as they were last season with the lack of a big play passing threat and I think that their scoring will drop off somewhat.

The defense is much more concerning to me, as I am not confident that the change to the 3-4 will actually help them improve on the ground. After a middling season defending against the run, Tech has to improve this fall if they want to be able to defend their ACC crown. Unfortunately, the inexperience up front combined with the expected lack of a pass rush will probably hold this unit back from being any better than average.

But let’s be quite honest here: Paul Johnson’s teams are always competitive and this year’s team will be no different. While I do not think that the Yellow Jackets are on par talent-wise with Virginia Tech or Miami in the Coastal Division, the schedule sets up well for Georgia Tech to stay in the race. However, I think that their defense will be a liability and their lack of a passing game will make it difficult for the Jackets if they fall behind early in games this year. Those are the two biggest reasons that I think that they will fall short in the ACC and against archrival Georgia. While they should have another strong campaign, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are my choice to finish 3rd in the ACC Coastal Division in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 8-4 (5-3 ACC)