2010 Georgia Bulldogs Football Preview

2009 Results: 8-5, Won Independence Bowl vs. Texas A&M

Head Coach: Mark Richt (10th year @ UGA, 90-27 Overall)

Home Venue: Sanford Stadium (92,746) Athens, Georgia

2009 was a transition season for the Georgia Bulldogs. After a star-struck season in 2008 that began with a #1 preseason ranking, the loss of top end talent should have lowered expectations for last fall. However, Georgia fans have a problem connecting with reality and the disappointment of a seven win regular season had some of the more foolish and vocal Dawg ‘fans’ calling for Richt’s head. Even with a dominating bowl victory over Texas A&M, the complaints didn’t subside, so I have to get this off my chest: Mark Richt has averaged an incredible ten wins per season during his nine year tenure in Athens. That’s tied with archrival Florida for the most wins in the conference during that span and it is also the most wins in any nine year period in the history of Georgia football! Richt haters: stop complaining and be thankful he is your head coach because it could easily still be the Jim Donnan era when all of the best high school players in the state left and your team was an also-ran in the SEC. If you can’t handle it when your team doesn’t win every game, then root for Manchester United or grow up.

The good news is that there is a very strong chance that the idiotic whining will be largely stilled this fall as the Bulldogs have a very capable team returning. While the losses on defense are heavy, the offense only has to replace one starter for a wide open season in the SEC East. Can Georgia win the division and quiet all of Richt’s doubters?

OFFENSE

This is one of the most veteran returning offenses in the entire country. After putting up 29 points per contest last season, an incredible ten starters are back to lead the Dawgs to a bounce back campaign. The only problem? The one new starter comes at the most critical position: Quarterback. Redshirt freshman Aaron Murray is going to be the starter this fall, almost by default since his backup is a true freshman after Zach Mettenberger was thrown off of the team in the spring and junior Logan Gray switched to wide receiver. While there is precious little depth under center, Murray was one of the country’s top quarterback prospects and he will be surrounded by talent.

That begins with the best offensive line in the entire country. All five starters will be upperclassmen and four of them will be entering their 3rd or 4th season atop the depth chart! Senior tackle Clint Boling and junior center Ben Jones were both 2nd Team All-SEC selections last fall and they should be the leaders of this nasty line. There is also exceptional depth and versatility on hand, as many of these players have started at multiple positions. Even the backups are impressive, as they include junior Trindon Sturdivant, who was one of the country’s best tackles in 2007 before his last two years were scuttled by knee injuries. There is no doubt that Murray will have plenty of time to make decisions behind this monstrous crew.

The line will also be a boon for the running game. Sophomore Washaun Ealey (717 yards, 3 TDs in ’09) broke onto the scene last season in the 5th game when the coaches gave up on trying to redshirt him and he promptly become the team’s leading rusher. Had he played the first four weeks, he might have run for 1,000 yards as a true freshman! Junior Caleb King (594 yards, 7 TDs) is also a strong supporting runner and both players should have strong seasons. In fact, Richt was so confident in those two that he moved 3rd leading rusher Richard Samuel (395 yards, 2 TDs) to linebacker in the spring! There is no doubt in my mind that a full season from Ealey will result in a much stronger running game for the Dawgs.

Finally, Georgia has an exceptional group of wide receivers. Junior A.J. Green (53 catches, 808 yards, 6 TDs) was a 1st Team All-SEC choice despite missing three games due to injury last year and he is widely considered to be one of the elite receivers in the country. He’s a physical mismatch that will draw double coverage and beat it on a consistent basis. But he’s also not the only solid receiving option on the team. Sophomore Tavarres King (18 catches, 377 yards, 1TD) emerged as a major deep threat last year and classmate Orson Charles (23 catches, 374 yards, 3 TDs) forced his way into the starting spot at tight end as a true freshman! Expect this strong group of pass catchers to give Murray all of the support he needs to power a quality passing attack.

Right now, I have no doubt that Georgia will have a great offense. First of all, their towering offensive line and improved running game will take a ton of pressure off of Murray from the get-go. Quite simply, they’re not going to ask him to win games this fall. UGA simply needs him to be able to take advantage of defenses cheating up against the run by utilizing play action for this to be a great attack. With Green on the receiving end of his passes, I’m confident that Murray will do quite well in his first season under center.

In fact, I think that this UGA offense will be a virtual carbon copy of the 2004 Michigan Wolverines. That year was Chad Henne’s freshman season and he was the only question mark on a very strong offense, just like Murray is this fall. Michigan’s strategy was to ride their strong running game and trust their big offensive line to protect Henne and consistently put him in manageable 3rd down situations. When he was asked to pass, he often did so off of play action and generally threw to Braylon Edwards (a physical match to Green), who ended the season with 97 catches, 1,300 yards and 15 TDs. Many of Edwards’ catches were of the deep jump ball variety, a specialty that Green shares as well. That Michigan offense scored 31 points per game while winning the Big Ten Championship and I think that Georgia is capable of equalizing that feat this fall.

DEFENSE

What has really been UGA’s Achilles Heel in the last few seasons was the slow erosion of their defense under former coordinator Willie Martinez. The Bulldogs saw their defense give up more points per game for five consecutive seasons, culminating in last year’s failing unit that finished 10 th in the SEC in scoring at 26 points per outing. However, Richt finally pulled the plug on the Martinez regime and brought in former NFL defensive coordinator Todd Grantham to lead the changeover to the 3-4 defense this fall. That change prompted a free-for-all spring practice that saw many players tried out at different positions and clearly altered the look of the defense. Will the switch be enough for Georgia to jump back into the upper half of the league defensively despite losing five NFL draft picks from last year’s team?

The defensive line was the hardest hit by graduation, as they lost three defensive tackles to the NFL draft! As the nose tackle position is the key to a successful 3-4 scheme, those are really noticeable losses. However, the Dawgs should be better off than most expect at the position as junior DeAngelo Tyson impressed with his strength in the spring. However, Tyson won’t be the only nose tackle to see the field since he has less than ideal size for the spot. That means that junior Justin Anderson, a 330 pound former O-Lineman that started a dozen games in the last two years, will also see the field a lot and if he plays as well as his size would indicate, then the nose tackle position should be perfectly fine this fall. At the ends, senior DeMarcus Dobbs (30 tackles, 4.5 sacks) should be in for another strong season, though the other spot is up for grabs. Expect an effective line that will improve as the season goes on as they grow more comfortable in the new system.

The definite strength of the defense will be at linebacker, where Georgia has more than enough talent to overcome the loss of the SEC’s leading tackler, Rennie Curran, to the NFL. Junior Justin Houston (39 tackles, 7.5 sacks) could end up being the star of the defense after moving back from defensive end this spring. Now a rush outside linebacker, the former 2nd Team All-SEC selection should be a terror chasing after the quarterback. With senior Darryl Gamble (47 tackles, 1 sack) lining up opposite him, I’m confident that UGA will be strong on the outside. Meanwhile, junior Marcus Dowtin (57 tackles, 2 sacks) appears primed for a big season at inside ‘backer and I am confident that he’ll be a strong performer against the run. Expect Georgia’s linebackers to be one of the most productive groups in the SEC this year.

Where there is significant concern is in the secondary, as junior cornerback Brandon Boykin (54 tackles, 3 INT) is the only returning starter. Normally, that wouldn’t be the end of the world but Georgia’s top four played a ton last fall and there isn’t a lot of returning experience in this group. On the other hand, the Dawgs finished 8 th in the league against the pass, so maybe an overhaul was needed. Senior Vance Cuff (21 tackles) is the favorite to start opposite Boykin due to his experience and leadership, but sophomore Branden Smith will challenge for playing time after contributing both ways as a true frosh last season. At safety, sophomore Bacarri Rambo (25 tackles, 2 INT) played fairly extensively in 2009 while showing good ball skills, so he seems likely to pair with spring star Jakar Hamilton. I think they could form a surprisingly good pairing as both are exceptional athletes. There is no doubt that UGA will go through some growing pains through the air, but the talent is in place to form a solid pass defense.

The change to a 3-4 set will definitely be a boon to Georgia, who had fallen into a rut in recent years. While the line will rotate a lot of players onto the field, I am confident that they have good depth at the all-important nose tackle position. On top of that, the Bulldogs are more than deep enough at linebacker to make the transition with ease and converted end Houston is going to be a pass rushing terror. The big concern is through the air, where UGA is going to be highly inexperienced. However, they are also going to be highly talented and that should accelerate their learning curve. Expect this group to struggle early but eventually gel into a solid group of defensive backs. Overall, the changes in attitude and scheme should result in fewer points on the scoreboard for the other team.

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SCHEDULE

Georgia typically schedules much more aggressively than other SEC schools and this year is no exception. After playing three BCS conference opponents outside conference play last fall, they’ve dialed it back in 2010 to only face two. Peach State rival Georgia Tech comes to Athens this season, a game that Georgia has dominated under Richt. On top of their annual rivalry game, the Bulldogs are leaving SEC territory for the 2nd consecutive season when they head West to Colorado in early October. With two solid non-league opponents, you have to give UGA credit for their scheduling philosophy.

As for SEC play, things are a little bit more complicated. A visit to always-difficult South Carolina kicks off the league season in the 2nd week of September and a home game against high-flying Arkansas follows immediately thereafter. Both games will be tough early tests for the new Dawg defense. Georgia also only has three home conference games as the annual game against nemesis Florida counts towards their ledger this season. Finally, conference play is capped off by a mid-November trip to traditional rival Auburn, leaving the Bulldogs with a formidable run in 2010.

OUTLOOK

Georgia looks like a serious contender in the SEC East Division. While their defense will undoubtedly be a concern until we actually get to see them in real game action, I’m confident that Grantham will oversee a much improved unit. There is still good talent on the D-Line thanks to Richt’s excellent recruiting and I am confident that the trio of Tyson, Anderson and redshirt frosh Kwame Geathers can get the job done at nose tackle. With a fleet group of linebackers patrolling the field behind them, the Bulldogs should continue to be tough against the run. While the secondary will be a concern early, especially with their schedule, the pass rush from Houston off of the edge should help ease their transition. By the time the Florida game rolls around in October, this will be a quality defense.

On top of that, the style of their offense should also put the defense in position to succeed. Their focus on the running game should keep the defense well rested on the sideline because I think UGA will be among the conference leaders in time of possession. Furthermore, their excellent offensive line should allow the passing game to flourish because Murray will have a ton of time to throw. One other important factor: Georgia has the best all-around kicking game in the conference and that should also put the defense on the field with favorable field position.

With all of the consternation about last season, I still don’t understand how Georgia fans can be so out of touch with reality that they’re upset about an eight win rebuilding season. Mark Richt has won ten or more games six times in his career and he has an excellent chance to add to that mark in 2010. I only see four potential losses on this schedule: South Carolina, Arkansas, Florida and Auburn. Not to write off rivals Tennessee or Georgia Tech, but if either of those teams beat UGA this fall, it will be an enormous upset.

South Carolina is always a tough game but the Bulldogs have won seven of the last eight in this game and I am confident that their running game will control another tight contest. However, I’m not optimistic about Georgia’s chances in the early going against the well-oiled passing game of Arkansas and I will be surprised if the Dawgs pull that one out, even with the home field advantage. Meanwhile, the trip to Auburn will also be very tough as the Tigers are almost a mirror image of the Bulldogs this fall. I think the home field advantage in War Eagle territory will cause Murray to struggle and give Georgia a 2nd loss in conference.

That means that Georgia’s SEC East dream comes down, again, to their showdown with archrival Florida in Jacksonville. While many observers are automatically assuming that the Gators are a shoo-in for the East title, I’m not one of them. After all, Murray has as many career starts as Florida’s new QB: Zero. I also think that Florida is also going to be coming into this game with one conference loss, making the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party the de facto SEC East Championship Game. While Richt’s 2-7 career record against Florida is certainly a major concern, I think that the Bulldog offense will find room to run and lead Georgia to an upset victory. That means that the Dawgs will own the tiebreaker in the SEC East Division this fall over the Gators when both finish with 6-2 records, meaning that the Georgia Bulldogs are my choice to win the SEC East Division in 2010.

But waiting for them in the SEC Championship Game will be Arkansas, whose passing game will have already defeated the Dawgs once already. At this point, there’s no doubt that both teams will be better defensively with the full season under their belts and it should be a lower scoring game than their meeting in September. However, the Razorbacks still have a significant edge at quarterback with Ryan Mallett’s elite talents and I’m picking Arkansas to defeat Georgia for the 2nd time in 2010 to win the SEC Championship Game. Despite the disappointment, this season should be a validation of Richt’s coaching abilities and his team should find themselves in the Capital One or Gator Bowl on New Year’s Day.

PREDICTED RESULT: 10-2 (6-2 SEC)