2010 Florida State Seminoles Football Preview

2009 Results: 7-6, Won Gator Bowl vs. West Virginia

Head Coach: Jimbo Fisher (No Previous Head Coaching Experience)

Home Venue: Doak S. Campbell Stadium (82,300), Tallahassee, Florida

Last season was a major disappointment for Florida State fans. After 2008 provided hope that legendary coach Bobby Bowden could end his lengthy career with one final great season, a 2-4 start put the Seminoles at risk of missing a bowl and Bowden was notified that he would be forcibly retired at the end of the year. After a stirring Gator Bowl victory, Bowden ended his 34 year career 2nd on the NCAA’s all-time wins list with an amazing 389 victories.

Replacing the legend will be Jimbo Fisher, who was the offensive coordinator and Head Coach in Waiting since 2007. Fisher will bring a much more modern approach to the Seminoles, as Bowden was more of a figurehead for the last few seasons: He didn’t even wear a headset during most games! With Fisher finally in full control of the team, can Florida State compete for the Atlantic Division crown?

OFFENSE

Florida State has scored more than 30 points per game in each of the last two seasons, largely due to the excellent play of senior quarterback Christian Ponder (2,717 pass yards, 14 TDs, 7 INT, 179 rush yards, 2 TDs), who has been receiving buzz as a Heisman candidate this fall. Ponder missed four games due to injury last season, including the bowl game, but he should be one of the best quarterbacks in the country this fall now that he is fully healthy.

He will also have a great set of receivers, featuring three solid juniors: Bert Reed (60 catches, 710 yards), Jarmon Fortson (45 catches, 610 yards, 4 TDs) and Taiwan Easterling (35 catches, 442 yards, 2 TDs). With Ponder healthy for the whole season, I think that all three could see an increase in production.

Completing the passing equation is the ACC’s best offensive line. Two years ago, this unit didn’t have a single upperclassman in the entire two deep, resulting in multiple freshmen starting. That unheard of lack of depth will pay off this season as all five linemen will be entering their 3rd season, at minimum, starting on the front line! Senior guard Rodney Hudson was a 1 st Team All-American last year and he is the rock in the middle of one of the country’s most experienced offensive lines. This is an elite unit that should give Ponder plenty of time to throw.

That kind of excellent blocking should also give rise to a great running game. As unbelievable as it sounds, the last Seminole tailback to eclipse the 1,000 yard mark was Warrick Dunn all the way back in 1996! However, I think that inglorious streak ends this season with junior Jermaine Thomas (832 yards, 9 TDs), who might have ended that run last year had he been the starter for the entire season. With a deep backfield, I fully expect the Florida State running game to have a great campaign.

2010 should be a great season for the Seminole offensive attack, which won’t change much from the last two seasons under Fisher’s guidance. They have one of the country’s best offensive lines, their senior quarterback is a bonafide Heisman candidate throwing to a deep set of receivers and they have a frontline runner in Thomas. I think that this will be a balanced and dangerous offense that could be the most productive in the entire ACC in 2010.

DEFENSE

The biggest change that will accompany the coaching change is on defense, where Fisher lured Mark Stoops away from Arizona to become the new defensive coordinator. While former DC Mickey Andrews will be remembered as a legend for his work during FSU’s glory years, the Seminole defense really didn’t have a lot of bite in the past five seasons. Mark is the youngest of the famed Stoops brothers, the elder two of which currently are the head coaches at Oklahoma and Arizona, and he is considered to be one a rising coaching star. He certainly inherits a talented defense, as the Noles have recruited very well, but they are badly in need of structure as this unit always struck me as a gifted group of individuals instead of a cohesive defensive unit. Can Stoops harness this group’s elite talent this season?

The defensive line is certainly a good place to start. The Seminoles inexplicably allowed opponents to average over 200 rush yards per contest last season and the D-Line needs to clamp down this fall. Senior DE Markus White (38 tackles, 2 sacks) is the most productive returning player but he was also the only player on this line who stayed healthy for the entire season in 2009. One player to keep an eye on is sophomore DT Jacobbi McDaniel (25 tackles, 2 sacks), who played extensively as a true freshman after coming in as the country’s top defensive lineman recruit. I think that the depth of talent on hand combined with a much healthier campaign should result in a significantly better season, especially defending the run.

My confidence in the improvement of the run defense is bolstered by the linebackers. Senior Kendall Smith (85 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and junior Nigel Bradham (93 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) were the team’s top two tacklers last fall and I fully expect both to continue their excellent play this year. They should also do an excellent job mentoring impressive freshman Jeff Luc, who was in for the spring and could end up snagging the 3rd starting spot.

The one position that could be a liability is the secondary, specifically at safety. In the spring, senior Ochuko Jenjie (31 tackles, 4 INT), junior Dionte Allen (15 tackles) and sophomore Greg Reid (23 tackles, 2 INT) emerged as the clear top trio and I think that they will be a great set of cover corners. Reid was especially impressive last season as a true freshman and I think he could be in for a breakout year. However, will this much talent at cornerback be enough to make up for a very inexperienced set of safeties? Sophomore Nick Moody (33 tackles) will likely start at one spot after seeing the field a lot last fall but the other spot is up for grabs and almost every single candidate is an underclassman.

Overall, I think that the Seminoles are in for a major improvement on defense this year. After finishing 10th in the ACC in scoring on the strength of the league’s worst run defense, I think that an improved D-Line and a quality set of linebackers should be the genesis for a much better showing on the ground. Furthermore, a better pass rush from the front seven should also help cover the hole at safety. On top of that, I think that the quality set of cover corners should further protect the secondary’s inadequacy at the back end. Finally, I think the game had somewhat passed Andrews by in the past few seasons and Stoops should be a much better signal caller this fall. There is no doubt in my mind that Florida State will be significantly improved defensively in 2010.

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SCHEDULE

The non-conference portion is a very difficult run for the Seminoles. Aside from their traditional season-ending clash with Florida, they also travel to Oklahoma while hosting BYU. Considering that those three teams combined to win 32 games last fall, including a 3-0 record in their bowl games, this will be a very challenging slate for Florida State.

In ACC play, the draw from the Coastal Division is going to be interesting. They have to travel to traditional rival Miami and lowly UVA while hosting North Carolina. While the Hurricanes are easily the best of those three teams, they’ll be coming off of three consecutive road games at Ohio State, Pittsburgh and Clemson while FSU has minnows Wake Forest and Virginia in the previous two weeks. The Atlantic Division is also the weaker division overall and the Seminoles host both Clemson and Boston College, who are their primary challengers in the division. As tough as this schedule outside of ACC play, the league schedule is about as favorable as FSU could hope for.

OUTLOOK

There are certainly a lot of things to like about the Seminoles his season. First of all, they should be much better coached on the defensive side of the football with Stoops in charge after the last five seasons proved that FSU’s former defensive staff had fallen somewhat out of touch with modern defenses. Second, the defense should also benefit from a significantly healthier season from the D-Line and that means a much stronger run defense. Even with some question marks at safety, I feel that the pass defense will be significantly improved as well.

And the offense is going to be exceptional. Ponder is one of the country’s finest signal callers and he is surrounded by a lot of talent. His receivers are seasoned, he will have a balanced attack from the running game and he will be protected by one of America’s elite lines. With a favorable conference schedule that sees them host both of their primary challengers in the division, I think it will all come together for a successful campaign: The Florida State Seminoles are my pick to win the ACC Atlantic Division in 2010.

That will match them up with the Virginia Tech Hokies for the ACC Championship. The Hokies are very similar to the Alabama team that won last season’s National Championship in that they will be powered by a pair of elite tailbacks and their game plan will be to control the clock and play great defense. The fact that these two talented teams will square off for the first time since 2008 only adds intrigue to the game. The Seminoles will probably be the underdog in this clash and I’m afraid that I will go with the oddsmakers and pick the Hokies to ride their elite running game past Florida State to the ACC Championship and a 12-1 overall record.

However, don’t despair Seminole fans: I have a much more interesting prediction to make. The past few seasons have seen a severe turn for the worse in what was once a hot rivalry with Florida and the hated Gators have now won six straight games in the series. In fact, Bowden’s final three teams lost to Florida by a combined margin of 127-37! But I think that is all about to change this season. First of all, this edition of Seminoles should be a significantly better coached team, an edge that has clearly belonged to the Gators under Urban Meyer. Second, the Gators will be going through a retooling season as St. Tebow has graduated after owning the Noles during his career. Finally, this is the best Florida State team in at least five years and they will be highly motivated to end the skid against their archrivals.

And I will oblige them: This is the season that the Sunshine Showdown becomes interesting again and I am picking the Florida State Seminoles to beat the Florida Gators for the first time since 2003.

PREDICTED RESULT: 9-3 (6-2 ACC)