2010 Duke Blue Devils Football Preview

2009 Results: 5-7, No Bowl

Head Coach: David Cutcliffe (3rd Year, 9-15 @ Duke, 53-44 Overall)

Home Venue: Wallace Wade Stadium (33,941), Durham, North Carolina

Duke football used to be nothing more than a way to pass time before basketball season, but the last two seasons under David Cutcliffe have begun to change that perception. While the Blue Devils still haven’t earned a bowl berth since 1994, they have been significantly more competitive, winning more games in the past two years than they did in the previous five combined! Remember, this was a program that was so bad that they argued in court that they shouldn’t have to pay a penalty to Louisville for breaking a game contract because the Cardinals could play any opponent and get an equal or better game…and they won!

Luckily for Duke fans, the preseason discussion revolves around actual football concerns, such as whether they will have a quality replacement for departed quarterback Thaddeus Lewis or whether their defensive line will hold up against the run. Can the Blue Devils overcome last year’s crushing four game losing streak to close the year, where just one win would have been enough to go bowling, and finally grab that elusive bowl berth that has evaded their clutches for nearly two decades?

OFFENSE

The Blue Devils have taken very noticeable steps forward in each of the past two seasons, a testament to Cutcliffe’s offensive talents. Despite the improvement, Duke still finished 8 th in the ACC in scoring last year at 25.2 points per contest, held back largely to their awful running game, which finished among the worst in the country while averaging only 64 yards per game. With such an ineffective rushing attack, the only reason that the Blue Devils managed to score any points was the excellent play of QB Thaddeus Lewis, who threw for over 3,300 yards and 20 touchdowns! Can they find a viable replacement for one of the conference’s best quarterbacks?

Unfortunately, I’m not thrilled with the candidates to take his place. Sophomore Sean Renfree (330 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INT in ‘09) is considered the favorite, but he missed most of 2009 with a torn ACL and he was held out of contact drills this spring. Needless to say, that much lost time is a big concern and it is possible that one of the freshmen that he is competing with could end up starting. This position is up in the air and there is clearly no one that will produce on Lewis’ level this season.

The good news in the passing game is that the receiving corps is a deep and talented unit. Junior Donovan Varner (65 catches, 1047 yards, 8 TDs, 1st Team All-ACC), senior Austin Kelly (54 catches, 625 yards, 4 TDs) and sophomore Conner Vernon (55 catches, 746 yards, 3 TDs, 2 nd Team All-ACC) form a great trifecta of pass catchers. On top of that, senior tight end Brandon Huffman (18 catches, 3 TDs) should be a good safety valve. This is one of the conference’s deepest and most experienced units.

I also expect that they’ll get plenty of chances to make plays because the O-Line should give whoever is under center plenty of time to throw. Four starters return up front from a unit that allowed the 5th fewest sacks in the conference, a very impressive number considering that the Blue Devils threw the most passes in the ACC by a wide margin. Where they will need to improve is in run blocking as Duke averaged a league-low 2.2 yards per carry last fall.

But part of that responsibility falls on the tailbacks to step their game up. Sophomore Desmond Scott (262 yards, 1 TD) was the team’s leading rusher last fall as a true freshman and he needs to have a much stronger season this year if the Blue Devils are going to actually have a respectable running game. Keep an eye on true freshman Josh Snead as well: He was one of the stars of Spring Practice after enrolling early and could end up as the starter. Cutcliffe has brought a number of talented young runners to Durham in the last two years, so I’m cautiously optimistic that we’ll see a big improvement this season on the ground.

Overall, there are some bright spots about this offense. The offensive line looks like it will be a solid unit, definitely the best under Cutcliffe, and they’ve proven their ability to protect the quarterback. While the Blue Devils will have a new starting QB this season, a fleet of great receivers will be at his disposal and that should ease the transition. I also think that the running game will improve this season thanks to a tandem of solid young runners. While Duke will definitely miss Lewis’ excellent quarterback play, I think that they’ll use their improved running game to create a more balanced attack and that should signal a similarly successful season on the scoreboard.

DEFENSE

Things have also improved on defense in the last two seasons, as the previous three years prior to Cutcliffe’s arrival saw Duke give up more than 33 points per game in every campaign. Even with the success of the past two seasons, the 2009 team still only finished 9th in scoring defense in the ACC last fall, so there is still a long way to go towards respectability. Can the improving Blue Devils field a much more productive defense this season?

Up front, there are some holes to be filled. Junior defensive tackle Charlie Hatcher (39 tackles, 1 sack) is a productive big man who should be a solid anchor to build the run defense around. The defensive ends should also be respectable, as senior Patrick Egboh (34 tackles, 1 sack) has played extensively and sophomore Kenny Anunike had a monster spring after switching over from tight end. However, this is still a very thin unit and aside from Hatcher I don’t see the size necessary to hold up against the run, especially in a division full of teams that are very strong on the ground.

I am also not impressed with the linebackers. Senior Damian Thornton (60 tackles) and Abraham Kromah (40 tackles) return from last season but neither is a particularly dynamic player. That said, Kromah should have a much better season since he missed half of 2009 due to injury and he could be the playmaker that they need. But playing behind an undersized line will not help the linebackers play up to their potential and I am very concerned about Duke’s run defense this fall.

I am also nervous about the secondary, where junior Matt Daniels (83 tackles) is the team’s top returning tackler. Cutcliffe did not display a lot of confidence in this unit when he moved junior Johnny Williams over from wide receiver to pair with senior corner Chris Rwabukamba (46 tackles) in the spring, as Williams had 31 catches last season and was a productive pass-catcher. Even with the addition of Williams, I’m very worried that the Blue Devil defensive backs will struggle this season because there simply aren’t a lot of great athletes on hand.

Overall, I just am not impressed with this defense as the negatives far outnumber the positives. Up front, Hatcher should be a strong performer but he is the only big body on an undersized line and will see double teams on virtually every play. Meanwhile, the linebackers are not impressive and I think that they will have to shed a lot of blockers to make plays. Finally, the secondary isn’t particularly athletic and they will be pushed to their limit by the lack of a pass rush from the front seven. After two positive seasons for the Blue Devil defense, I’m afraid that this looks like the worst defense in the ACC this year.

> Buy Duke football & basketball jerseys and Duke baseball hats and find a great selection of college Fathead logos online through College Sports Fans!

 

SCHEDULE

Duke must be trying to get entered into the Commander-in-Chief Trophy discussion: They’re playing both Army and Navy this season! While both are going to be stiff tests, they’re also not the most difficult game on the docket, as defending National Champions Alabama actually travels to Durham in September. I have to give Cutcliffe a lot of credit for keeping this game as the school was offered more money to move it to a neutral site, a.k.a. somewhere more Alabama fans could jam into, and Duke turned it down. However, they still have virtually zero chance of beating the Tide.

In ACC play, the Atlantic Division draw is quite favorable, as they avoid favorites Clemson and Florida State. While they do host a good BC squad, the other two opponents are lowly Wake Forest and Maryland, so this is a very reasonable slate. The problem is that they play in the same division as Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami and North Carolina, all of whom are likely to be ranked this year. Consider that Duke hasn’t beaten any of them since 2003 and you can get a sense of how daunting this schedule is for the Blue Devils.

OUTLOOK

There are certainly a lot of positive spots for the Blue Devils, especially on the offensive side of the football. I think that they’ll be much more balanced with an improved running attack, their O-Line should be very strong and I love their receivers. I can assure you that more than a few teams in the conference are envious of Duke at that position! Even with the uncertainty at quarterback, I am confident that this offense will continue to produce.

But the defense is another matter entirely. I hate to be brazen, but this unit stinks. They have exactly one big D-Lineman that will be able to hold up against the run, their linebackers are average at best and their secondary was in such dire need of help that one of the team’s better wideouts switched over to bolster their ranks! This is probably going to turn out to be the worst defense under Cutcliffe and they are going to be very vulnerable on the ground.

I’m also afraid that those defensive deficiencies are going to hold them back from breaking their fifteen year losing skid. With a non-conference schedule that features three teams that love to run the football, Duke will be lucky to earn a 2-2 record and things will only get tougher from there. Even with a friendly conference draw, I don’t see them ending up bowl eligible this season as they play in one of the toughest divisions in college football. The Duke Blue Devils are my choice to finish 5th in the ACC Coastal Division.

PREDICTED RESULT: 4-8 (2-6 ACC)