2010 Colorado Buffaloes Football Preview

2009 Results: 3-9, No Bowl

Head Coach: Dan Hawkins (5th year, 16-33 @ Missouri, 69-44 Overall)

Home Venue: Folsom Field (53,750), Boulder, Colorado

When Colorado hired Dan Hawkins, I was sure that it was going to be a resounding success. Hawkins was the man who oversaw Boise State’s meteoric rise and I felt that he would turn the Big XII North upside down with BCS-caliber athletes running his innovative system. Early recruiting returns made it seems like a matter of when, not if, the Buffs would be back in the mix to win the division.

Unfortunately, that has not been the case. While he had some early success, highlighted by a 2007 upset of Oklahoma, the Hawk’s teams have only made one bowl game and have failed to post a single winning campaign! With the Buffaloes heading to the Pac Ten (Twelve?) next season, there is serious pressure on Hawkins to deliver a winner. Otherwise, Colorado could easily be looking for a new start when they join their new conference. Can Hawk get the job done this fall?

OFFENSE

The Buffs were a disappointment on offense last season, a fact that has been commonplace during Hawkins’ tenure. In fact, Colorado had the 2 nd worst rushing attack in the entire conference! One major criticism from the Buff fans has been Hawkins’ indecision at quarterback, as his son Cody (1,277 yards, 10 TDs, 11 INT) is a senior this year and has been the target of nepotism accusations. While I don’t think that is completely fair, there is no doubt that Hawkins is in a tough position coaching his son. While junior Tyler Hansen (1,440 yards, 8 TDs, 7 INT) was the #1 quarterback coming out of the spring, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the two split time this season.

There is some good news in the passing game as the Buffs do have one great receiver in senior Scotty McKnight (76 catches, 893 yards, 6 TDs), who is a hard-nosed receiver that will be on the short list for All-Big XII honors this fall. It was a mixed offseason otherwise, as junior Markques Simas (43 catches, 585 yards, 3 TDs) is out for the year but speedy USC transfer Tevin Patterson came on board in late July to fill the void. If he lives up to expectations, then he could form a solid tandem with McKnight.

As for the concerns in the running game, the good news is that junior Rodney Stewart (804 yards, 9 TDs) was the team’s top rusher last season and he will lead the ground game once more. However, the transfer of former elite recruit Darrell Scott was a major disappointment as he would have formed a great tandem with Stewart. That’s particularly concerning because Colorado doesn’t have great depth behind their top rusher.

However, I think that Stewart will be in for a great season because he should find a lot more room to run behind a very improved O-Line. After a season full of position shuffling, the entire two deep is back and they should be much better this season with more consistency. The best player on the line is senior LT Nate Solder, who was a 1 st Team All-Big XII selection in 2009. With this kind of talent up front, that’s a great sign for the offense to take a step ahead.

Overall, the indecision (some would say nepotism) at quarterback is the biggest concern about the Colorado offense in 2010. The O-Line could be one of the best in the conference, tailback Stewart is a potential 1,000 yard runner and McKnight is one of the finest pass catchers in the Big XII. If Colorado can get some decent play under center this season, then the offense will be significantly better.

DEFENSE

Colorado had the 2nd worst defense in the conference last season, allowing 29 points per game! What makes this number even worse is that the Buffs have been treading water in the bottom third of the league for the last few seasons, yet Hawkins hasn’t made a change on defense as DC Ron Collins has been with the Hawk since their Boise State days. In what is surely a ‘put up or shut up’ season, can Colorado put the pieces together to field a decent defense?

The Buffs have a young but talented defensive front. The only senior is DE Marques Herrod (38 tackles, 6 sacks), who will be a great edge rusher this fall. With former elite recruit Nick Kasa (he chose the Buffs over Florida and USC, among others) healthy after missing most of last season to injury, the Colorado line could generate a solid pass rush with a bookend of solid DEs. On top of that, they look solid at defensive tackle as junior Curtis Cunningham (41 tackles, 2 sacks) appears ready to break out after playing extensively as an underclassman. While this is a young group, they are very talented.

Colorado is equally young but far less experienced at linebacker. Senior B.J. Beatty (30 tackles, 2.5 sacks) is the only starter back but the name that Colorado fans mention most frequently is sophomore Jon Major, who was one of the country’s top recruits two years ago. A Colorado native, he has struggled with injuries but if he can remain healthy then he will be a major contributor. However, this isn’t really an impressive group of linebackers and until Major proves he is ready to live up to the hype, I’m not ready to give this group much credit.

The secondary is certainly the most experienced and hardened part of the Colorado defense. The team’s top three returning tacklers are defensive backs: Senior cornerbacks Jalil Brown (66 tackles, 2 INT) and Jimmy Smith (70 tackles, 2 INT) and junior safety Anthony Perkins (78 tackles, 1 sack, 2 INT). While this group loses a 2nd Team All-Big XII safety, their experience and athleticism should allow for a strong showing against the pass this fall, especially with the potential for some sacks from their front four.

After a miserable 2009 season, I think that Colorado has a lot of potential to improve this fall. Their young D-Line is very talented and should generate a solid pass rush thanks to some talented ends. That will really help their veteran secondary and I think that the Buffs will perform well against the pass. My concern is at linebacker, where fan favorite Major is expected to anchor the unit despite having never started a game in his career. In the end, I think that this defense will fall into the middle of conference pack due to their inexperience. I also don’t have any faith in Collins to oversee a great defense, as his Colorado teams have disappointed. Expect an average defense from the Buffaloes this season in a year where ‘average’ just won’t cut it.

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SCHEDULE

The non-conference schedule is very difficult. The season kicks off with their yearly grudge match against rival Colorado State in Denver, a rivalry that has been evenly split the last four years. After that, they travel to future conference rival Cal before hosting Hawai’i and Georgia! That’s one of the country’s toughest non-league slates!

In Big XII play, they draw Oklahoma but avoid Texas and Texas A&M, giving them only one game against the top three teams from the South. One more note on this schedule: As the Buffaloes are leaving for the Pac Ten (Twelve?) after this season, the teams they’re leaving behind will be gunning extra hard for them every week and that means that anything less than full intensity could cost them in the win column.

OUTLOOK

There are some signs of hope for the beleaguered Hawker. If his team can find a productive starting quarterback (which may require him to make the difficult choice to bench his own son), then the offense could flourish because there is a lot of talent everywhere. With a great O-Line, there is definitely the potential for a solid season scoring points. The defense is also very talented but the front seven is much less experienced and it seems unlikely that they’ll match the quality of the offense.

So how does Colorado perform with Hawkins’ job on the line in their final season as a member of the Big XII? I think that their offense will keep them in most games with a balanced attack and that is already an improvement from last year. As for the defense, I think that they will be strong some weeks but weak in others as the young talent learns on the fly. With a very tough schedule, I’m afraid that the end result will be an up and down year that will be a roller coaster ride towards bowl eligibility. Going into the season’s final game at Nebraska, I think that the Buffaloes will need one more win to earn a postseason berth. Unfortunately, I will be absolutely shocked if the Buffs win that game and I’m afraid that Dan Hawkins’ final game at Colorado will be a loss to their rivals.

In a way, it is symbolic: The end of the Hawkins era will coincide with the end of the Big XII era for Colorado and it will come in the final game (for the foreseeable future) against their biggest rival from the dying Big XII North Division. The Buffaloes are my choice to finish 4 th in the weak North.

PREDICTED RESULT: 5-7 (3-5 Big XII)