2010 Cincinnati Bearcats Football Preview

2009 Results: 12-1, Lost Sugar Bowl vs. Florida

Head Coach: Butch Jones (1st year, 27-13 Overall)

Home Venue: Nippert Stadium (35,000)

2010 was the most successful season in the history of Cincinnati football as the Bearcats won their 2nd consecutive Big East Championship and finished the regular season undefeated. Unfortunately, it was also the 2nd consecutive season that the Bearcats were dominated in a BCS Bowl Game (Florida beat them 51-24 and it wasn’t even that close) and their superstar coach, Brian Kelly, left for the power and money of Notre Dame.

However, all is not lost with Kelly’s departure. In his place will be former Central Michigan coach Butch Jones, who followed up Kelly’s tenure there by winning the MAC Title twice and fielding three bowl teams in his only three campaigns. Furthermore, the majority of Kelly’s powerful offense remains, so the potential for another great season is there. Can Jones step seamlessly into Kelly’s shoes for the 2nd time in four years and continue the Bearcats’ winning ways?

OFFENSE

Cincinnati had the most productive offense in the entire conference last year, scoring just under 39 points per game! What was even more impressive than the numbers that they put up on the scoreboard was the fact that the Bearcats kept chugging along despite losing starting quarterback Tony Pike for four games in the middle of the Big East campaign! Pike, who was a Heisman contender when he got hurt and eventually was selected in the NFL draft, was replaced in spectacular fashion by now-junior Zach Collaros (1,434 pass yards, 344 rush yards, 14 total TDs, 2 INT in ‘09), whose dual threat abilities contrasted with the immobile Pike. Expect Collaros to have a big season in his first full campaign under center.

While Collaros won’t have the services of Marty Gilyard (4 th round pick by St. Louis) to catch his passes anymore, senior Armon Binns (61 catches, 888 yards, 11 TDs) was a major threat in his own right last season, earning 2 nd Team All-Big East honors. Along with support junior D.J. Woods (51 catches, 640 yards, 4 TDs) to prevent constant double teams, I expect Binns to continue performing at an elite level.

The skill positions are really the strength of this offense as junior Isaiah Pead (806 rush yards, 20 catches, 201 receiving yards, 11 total TDs) is a threat both running the ball and catching it coming out of the backfield. What really set the Bearcats aside last year was the number of different ways that they could attack a defense and that should really continue this year as they even have a great tight end in senior Ben Guidugli (27 catches, 364 yards, 3 TDs)! This is really a very versatile unit.

The only concern about all of that skill is giving it the chance to perform. That will be the province of the offensive line, which returns three starters, all of whom are upperclassmen. With both guards earning 2nd Team All-Big East honors last year, I’m confident that this unit will continue to perform at a high level.

Overall, Cincinnati could easily have the best offensive in the league this fall. Jones’ offensive staff is well-versed at using the talents of a running quarterback after guiding CMU’s Dan LeFevour to 2nd place on the NCAA’s all-time list for total yards. I believe that Collaros is the favorite to be the most productive QB in the Big East and the Bearcats should score 30 or more points per game in 2010.

DEFENSE

2009 began great on defense for Cincy, as they were allowing a miniscule 12.9 points per game after eight contests. However, things rapidly went to hell as the Bearcats faced better competition down the stretch and ended up allowing an unbelievable 39.4 points per game in their final five contests. This stretch of awfulness was capped off by Florida’s 51 spot in a game that saw Cincinnati get outgained by over 400 yards! Needless to say, there is a serious question as to how good this defense really was last year. To make matters worse, the new co-defensive coordinators came from Central Michigan and Georgia, two schools that have had their share of defensive woes the past few seasons and that has me concerned about their ability to turn around this unit.

Up front, the D-Line is in transition as junior DT Derrick Wolfe (41 tackles, 5 sacks) is the only returning starter. The good news is that sophomore ends Dan Giordano (42 tackles, 2 sacks) and Brandon Mills (25 tackles, 3.5 sacks) were impressive in a limited role last fall and should emerge as valuable players this season. However, Cincinnati was the worst team in the entire league against the run and fixing that with a rebuilding line won’t be easy.

At linebacker, junior J.K. Schaffer (100 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3 INT) is the team’s top returning tackler and his excellent play in 2009 earned him 2 nd Team All-Big East honors. Along with sophomore Walter Stewart (59 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT), Shaffer should provide excellent run support and the ability to drop back into coverage. My biggest concern is how well these ‘backers will perform behind an obviously weaker line.

In the secondary, two starters return from a unit that crumbled down the stretch, culminating in Florida throwing for 482 yards in the Sugar Bowl. However, junior corner Dominique Battle (60 tackles, 2 INT) played well for most of the season and will be a team leader. Sophomore safety Drew Frey (64 tackles, 1 sack, 2 INT) is the other starter back and he should also improve with more experience. Overall, the secondary honestly doesn’t lose any elite athletes and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this unit end up performing pretty well this fall.

Overall, the collapse down the stretch of the Bearcat defense in 2009 was shocking, to say the least. However, with a vastly different group of players and new coaching, things could be different. By different, I mean that I see no chance of this group holding opponents under 13 points per game in the first two thirds of the season and getting that much of a statistical head start before collapsing. No, I expect teams to score points on the Bearcats in droves from week one. I simply don’t think that the D-Line is going to be very strong this season and that will make the linebackers’ jobs much more difficult as they have to shed more blocks to make tackles.

Finally, how well has this defense’s collective psyche recovered from the horrific ending to 2009? I believe that they were playing far beyond their true abilities and with that bubble popped it will be difficult to rebuild this defense’s confidence quickly, especially with a tough early schedule. I see the Bearcats fielding one of the Big East’s worst defenses in 2010.

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SCHEDULE

Cincinnati’s schedule is also significantly tougher than it was in 2009. While they have four Big East home games and seven home games overall, their non-conference portion is significantly beefed up. The Bearcats have to travel to Fresno State and North Carolina State in the first three weeks before hosting mighty Oklahoma in Paul Brown Stadium to close out the season’s first month! That’s a really tough slate. Meanwhile, the final third of the seasons clusters visits to West Virginia and Connecticut with home games against Rutgers and Pitt, leaving the Bearcats with a very difficult finish. If they had played this schedule last year, I don’t think they would have gone 12-0 in the regular season.

OUTLOOK

The motto for this team in 2010 should be ‘Just Score, Baby!’ With the league’s most talented offense, that philosophy will surely be enough to earn Cincinnati another trip to a bowl game. However, I’m not as confident that they’ll be able to defend their Big East Championship because their defense is really not very good. I think that teams will be able to run and pass the ball with ease against the Bearcats and when things start turning against them, you can bet that the specter of last season’s collapse will be foremost in their minds.

Now, there will undoubtedly be games where Cincinnati’s excellent offense simply outscores opponents en route to victory but I don’t think that strategy will work against some of the better defensive teams that the Bearcats will run into, like Oklahoma, Pitt(who they beat 45-44 last year), Connecticut(47-45) and West Virginia. On top of that, the 2010 Cincinnati offense isn’t going to score at the same pace as the 2009 Cincinnati offense did with the losses of Pike and especially Gilyard, so I suspect that their ability to simply outscore teams will be greatly reduced.

In the end, I certainly see the Bearcats competing in the Big East and I wouldn’t be surprised whatsoever if they started 6-2 or 7-1. However, the difficult closing stretch coupled with their inability to play strong defense will eventually cost Cincinnati a chance to win their 3rd straight conference title. The Bearcats are my pick to win seven games and finish 4th in the Big East.

PREDICTED RESULT: 7-5 (4-3 Big East)