2010 Central Michigan Chippewas Football Preview

2009 Results: 12-2, MAC Champions, Won GMAC Bowl vs. Troy

Head Coach: Dan Enos (1st year @ CMU, No Previous Head Coaching Experience)

Home Venue: Kelly/Shorts Stadium (30,255), Mt. Pleasant, Michigan

The Chippewas have recently been a dominant force in the Mid-American Conference, winning three of the past four conference titles. A great deal of that success is owed to the extreme talents of former quarterback Dan LeFevour, who finished 2 nd on the NCAA’s all-time yards list. However, CMU also had a great defense last season that allowed the fewest points per game in the entire contest and the core of that unit is gone as well. On top of all of those losses, former Head Coach Butch Jones left for Cincinnati and first time head man Dan Enos takes over after serving as Michigan State’s running backs coach. With so many changes, can the Chips continue their run of success in 2010?

OFFENSE

Things will look very different on offense this fall for Central Michigan without LeFevour. Not only was he a four year starter at quarterback but he also was the team’s leading rusher last season! To make matter worse, senior Carl Volny (390 yards, 3 TDs in ’09) and junior Paris Cotton (220 yards, 1 TD) are expected to be the primary ball carriers this fall and neither has a long track record of success. I am extremely concerned about the production from the CMU tailbacks in 2010.

However, the biggest camp battle will undoubtedly be at quarterback. Sophomore Ryan Radcliff was the backup last season but he barely played. While he runs well, the new offense is going to involve less of the option that LeFevour ran so effectively. The good news is that whoever wins the quarterback job (there are a lot of young challengers) will have a decent set of receivers to throw to, led by senior Kito Poblah (53 catches, 681 yards, 3 TDs) and sophomore Cody Wilson (25 catches, 226 yards, 2 TDs). However, the receivers are also significantly diminished with the loss of two of the conference’s most productive pass catchers including NFL draft pick Antonio Brown.

The only part of the CMU offense that I have great confidence in is the offensive line, which returns four starters from last season’s team. While this unit will feature two sophomores, they both played extensively last year and I think that this will be one of the conference’s better O-Lines. That’s great news because when your line is playing well, it gives everyone else more opportunities to make plays.

Overall, there is no way that the Chips will remotely approach last season’s 34 points per game off offense with so many huge losses. They have to replace the two best playmakers in the entire league from a year ago and there is precious little proven experience at the skill positions to fall back upon: Even Poblah was only the team’s 3rd leading receiver in 2009. While a strong O-Line will help them adjust quicker to the new scheme, I will be surprised if this unit turns out to be any better than average this season.

DEFENSE

As I said in the introduction, the Chips were more than just a powerful offense last fall: This was a very good defense as well. CMU finished atop the league in scoring defense and held opponents to less than 14 points six times last year! While there are some significant losses, there is still great talent on hand. Will it be enough to field another strong defense in 2010?

Starting up front, the Chips have two returning starters at defensive tackle. That’s a very good sign as both were very productive in 2009. Senior Sean Murname (49 tackles, 3.5 sacks) is undersized but quick while junior John Williams (29 tackles, 2.5 sacks) is more powerful. The only concern I have with this line is the lack of a pass rush as CMU has to replace star DE Frank Zombo. However, I think that this unit will be stout against the run this fall.

That confidence in the run defense is multiplied exponentially when the linebackers come into play. Senior Nick Bellore (132 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT) was a 1st Team All-MAC and 4th Team All-American last season and classmate Matt Berning (108 tackles, 3 sacks) was also extremely productive. These two were the best defenders on the entire team last season and should form the core of the MAC’s top set of linebackers.

There’s just one drawback to this defense: The passing game. With such a stout front seven that will surely make things difficult for opposing runners, every opponent is going to test the inexperienced Chippewa secondary early and often. Senior Bobby Seay (60 tackles) and junior Dan Bolden (51 tackles, 2 INT) should form a decent pairing at safety but the cornerbacks are very inexperienced as they have to replace a 1st Team All-MAC corner from 2009. With the lack of a pass rush from the D-Line, I’m very concerned that the Chips will struggle through the air.

Overall, I think that CMU is going to be tested through the air a lot this season. Their line looks like it will be stout against the run and they have two tackling machines at linebacker. But the notable lack of an edge rusher up front coupled with an inexperienced group of cornerbacks is a big cause for concern and I think that the Chippewas will be at risk of getting hurt by big plays through the air this season. Expect them to fall back into the pack defensively this year and I can’t envision a scenario where they come close to last season’s great scoring defense.

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SCHEDULE

Central Michigan is well-known for their willingness to play a lot of strong non-league opponents, so this year’s slate actually looks fairly easy in comparison to past seasons. They travel to Virginia Tech, Northwestern and Navy while hosting D-1AA Hampton to kick off the year. As Tech is the only game that I don’t see them having a chance at winning from that group, there is a strong possibility for a win over a big name opponent (the Chips upset Michigan State last year) for the 2nd consecutive season. In conference, they also get a good draw, hosting both Bowling Green and Miami from the East, though they also must travel to favored Temple. The only drawback to this schedule is that CMU only has five home games.

OUTLOOK

Central Michigan is going to be less potent offensively this fall, everyone can see that from a mile away. The real question is whether they’ll be good enough to keep the Chips in the MAC West conversation, especially with a change in offensive philosophy. Unfortunately, I just don’t have a lot of confidence that they’ll find their running game quickly and their young quarterbacks are going to be prone to mistakes. I think that CMU is going to take a while to get the new offense going and that means significantly less production.

Furthermore, I have some serious reservations about their ability to defend against the pass. With a stout pair of DTs and two great linebackers, the Chips will definitely do well against the run but the lack of a major threat to pressure the quarterback coupled with the secondary’s inexperience is going to result in CMU allowing a lot more points.

When you couple those two together, I think that Central Michigan is going to see a real negative effect on their scoring margins due to turnovers and decreased production. Now, I understand that this seems a little gloomy for a team with some admittedly strong spots, but a difficult first half schedule coupled with all of these changes leaves me pessimistic that the Chips will make another run in the West this season. I also don’t see a major non-conference upset in the cards with a younger team this year and I’m afraid that means that CMU will fall short of bowl eligibility for the first time since 2004. Central Michigan’s young team is my choice to finish 4th in the MAC West Division in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 5-7 (4-4 MAC)