2010 Central Florida Knights Football Preview

2009 Results: 8-5, Lost St. Petersburg Bowl vs. Rutgers

Head Coach: George O’Leary (7th year, 34-41 @ UCF, 86-74 Overall)

Home Venue: Bright House Networks Stadium (45,323) Orlando, Florida

It hasn’t been an easy offseason for the Knights, as they’ve had to deal with the fallout from a blowout loss in a bowl game that they had virtual home field advantage for. Furthermore, the tragic 2008 death of former player Ereck Plancher during offseason workouts still hangs like a cloud over Head Coach George O’Leary’s program.

However, these distractions take away from what appears to be a very strong returning team on the field. UCF won eight games last season with the best defense in C-USA and 15 starters are back on both sides of the football. Can O’Leary lead his team to back to back winning seasons for the first time in his seven year tenure?

OFFENSE

Central Florida made great strides offensively last year, scoring ten more points per game compared to 2008 to put up just over 26 per outing. This was largely due to a solid running game and a quarterback who protected the football. With eight starters back, there are a lot of reasons for optimism.

The best player on the offense will be junior tailback Brynn Harvey (1,109 yards, 14 TDs in ’09), who was the driving force behind the UCF ground game last season. With talented true sophomore Jonathan Davis (310 yards, 4 TDs) serving as his understudy for the 2nd consecutive year, the Knights should be even better running the football in 2010.

Another reason for optimism in the ground game is the return of four starters on the offensive line, including 1st Team C-USA tackle Jah Reid. Along with those starters, most of the two deep returns and will be bolstered by one of the best O-Line recruiting classes in the conference. O’Leary brought in a whopping seven linemen! Expect the front to continue opening up plenty of holes for Harvey and Davis to run through.

But there is great talent at wide receiver as well. Juniors Kamar Aiken (36 catches, 610 yards, 9 TDs) and A.J. Guyton (44 catches, 572 yards, 1 TD) form a solid top tandem and senior Jamar Newsome (24 catches, 289 yards, 3 TDs) seems to be a clear 3 rd receiver. There’s just one problem: Who is going to throw the ball to them?

The leader in the quarterback race has to be junior Rob Calabrese, who has been decent when on the field the last two years. However, he will have to fend off the challenge of a true Jeff Godfrey and Stanford transfer L.D. Crow. Either way, the new starter will have a solid running game to fall back on and that should help ease the transition. Expect Central Florida to boast a similarly productive offense to 2009, with the caveat that their running game will play a bigger role in their success.

DEFENSE

The real strength of this team is on defense, which has improved every single year since O’Leary’s arrival. After allowing a miniscule 83 rush yards per game last season, the Knights finished 2nd in the conference in scoring defense at 22.5 points per game allowed.

Up front, senior DE Bruce Miller (61 tackles, 13 sacks) is the anchor. He was the 2009 C-USA Defensive Player of the Year and will command a double team on every play. That’s a huge help because the middle of the line doesn’t have a lot of depth and O’Leary has admitted to relying on recruits and JUCO transfers to thicken things up. However, with two strong senior ends, this should still be a solid group.

And with the linebackers returning, I’m confident that the run defense will be very good once more. Seniors Derrick Hallman (85 tackles, 1 INT) and Lawrence Young (78 tackles) are the team’s top two returning tacklers and both were mentioned in the C-USA postseason awards. But they’ll get a huge boost this year with the return of 5th year senior Chance Henderson, who was a 1 st Team C-USA selection in 2008 but missed last season with a knee injury. I could easily see this unit making a case to be the best set of linebackers in C-USA.

Believe it or not, I actually think that the secondary is the strength of this defense. I know, that’s a bold statement when the D-Line boasts the conference’s Defensive MVP and I just said that I think they might have the best group of linebackers, but this secondary is exceptional. Sophomore corner Josh Robinson (69 tackles, 6 INT) was named a 1st Team All-American as a true freshman last season, fellow soph Kemal Ishmael (70 tackles, 1 INT) was also a star as a true freshman and senior corner Justin Boddie (58 tackes, 1 INT) gives them the best CB tandem in the league. Remember, two of these stars were true freshman last year, so I fully expect a big improvement in their total pass yards given up this season.

Overall, there is a ton to like about this defense. They’re strong at all three levels, are very well coached and have always given up fewer points in every season under O’Leary. Central Florida can make a great case that they boast the top defense in the league and there’s no question that they’re in the top two with Southern Miss.

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SCHEDULE

The schedule is also pretty reasonable for the Knights. Their non-conference portion opens up with home games against D-1AA South Dakota and ACC foe NC State before visiting Buffalo and Kansas State to close out September. While two BCS conference teams won’t be easy to beat, neither is expected to be very strong this year and the Knights could definitely win either game.

Then they get an off week before beginning league play. In conference, they do face West favorite Houston but avoid SMU and Tulsa, giving them a reasonable draw. Furthermore, they host Southern Mississippi in mid-November for the game that will likely decide the C-USA East champion. With six home games that include that crucial contest, the Knights appear set up for success in 2010.

OUTLOOK

I think a really good comparison for this season’s team in terms of style of play is last season’s National Champions, Alabama. While they’re obviously nowhere near as talented as the Tide, UCF will pound the ball at opponents this season with two strong tailbacks and then play excellent defense. Harvey and Davis could emerge as the league’s top tailback tandem this fall. Furthermore, they’re extremely solid defensively and should be much improved against the pass this season. Finally, UCF has an encouraging schedule, especially in conference, which could see them favored to win as many as nine games! That’s the win total that I’m predicting and I think that Central Florida will win the C-USA East Division for the 3rd time under O’Leary.

However, I’m afraid that I don’t see the Knights winning their 2nd C-USA title during O’Leary’s tenure as Houston will likely have home field advantage in the title game and a stronger team in their favor. While I think that the Knights will give the Cougars a strong game (Remember, UCF beat Houston 37-32 last season), I think they’ll fall short and head to a nice bowl game looking for their 10 th win.

PREDICTED RESULT: 9-3 (6-2 CONFERENCE USA)