2010 California Golden Bears Football Preview

2009 Results: 8-5, Lost Poinsettia Bowl vs. Utah

Head Coach: Jeff Tedford (9th year @ Cal, 67-35 Overall)

Home Venue: Memorial Stadium (71,799)

The 2009 season was definitely a big disappointment for the Cal Bears, as many people (yours truly included) felt that they had a great chance to win the Pac Ten. Unfortunately, ugly back to back losses against USC and Oregon ended that dream in early October and the Bears finished another season in the middle of the Pac Ten. While extending the school’s postseason streak to eight consecutive years is a wonderful accomplishment, Coach Tedford’s teams have begun to gain an unfortunate reputation as a group that fails to live up to high expectations. The good news is that most people aren’t expecting them to be a major factor in the league chase this season, so they’re cast perfectly as a darkhorse. Can the Golden Bears surprise everyone and win the wide open Pac Ten this fall?

OFFENSE

Tedford’s reputation as an offensive mastermind is well-earned, as he has developed six 1st round draft picks at quarterback in his career, and his offenses seem to always rank in the top half of the conference in scoring. Last year was no exception as California’s 29 points per game average was the 3rd best in the Pac Ten. Will an experienced offense continue that trend this fall?

Senior Kevin Riley (2,850 yards, 18 TDs, 8 INT in ’09) has been one of the most frustrating quarterbacks that has started for Cal in the last decade. He has a ton of talent and is clearly competent enough to be one of the best in the conference, but he has yet to truly put it all together in his 24 career starts. However, that experience should serve him well this season and I expect him to have a very good final year in Strawberry Canyon.

It also helps that his receivers are going to be a very capable group this fall. Junior Marvin Jones (43 catches, 651 yards, 6 TDs) is the top returning pass catcher from a group that underachieved last season and he could be a potential breakout start this year. Senior Jeremy Ross (22 catches, 344 yards, 1 TD) and junior tight end Anthony Miller (26 catches, 357 yards) should also have improved seasons and they should be a key part of another great passing game in Berkeley.

But Tedford’s offense always has great balance. After all, this team was ranked 4th in the conference in both rushing and passing yards last year! While 1st round NFL pick Jahvid Best will be missed in the running game, junior Shane Vereen (952 rush yards, 25 catches, 244 receiving yards, 14 total TDs) played extensively in each of the last two seasons and is more than capable of carrying the load this fall. Expect him to be one of the most productive tailbacks in the entire Pac Ten this season.

The whole thing is wrapped up nicely by an experienced offensive line that brings back four starters from 2009. Led by junior tackle Mitchell Schwartz, who has started every game in each of the last two seasons, this group should be a very solid unit that performs well in pass protection and in run blocking.

With so much experience and a great track record to fall back on, there should be no doubt that the Golden Bear offense is more than capable of having an excellent season in 2010. The real question is whether Riley will up his play and turn this offense from effective to dangerous. If he can, then this unit is definitely a contender to lead the Pac Ten in scoring.

DEFENSE

There was no better barometer for the team’s success in 2009 than the performance of the defense. If California gave up fewer than 30 points, they were undefeated with an 8-0 record. On the flip side, they lost every single game that they ceded 30 or more points, dividing their season along very clear lines! Their defensive woes clearly fell upon a weak aerial defense as this was the 2nd ranked rush defense in the Pac Ten last year. Can the Golden Bears clamp down defensively after finishing 6 th in the league in points allowed last fall?

While Cal will miss 1st round NFL draft pick Tyson Alualu, the defensive line is still chock full of talent this year. Seniors Cameron Jordan (48 tackles, 6 sacks) and Derrick Hill (18 tackles, 2 sacks) will both be starting their 3rd season up front and will provide great leadership and production. With a good crop of sophomores to back them up, led by DT Aaron Tipoti (21 tackles), this should be another run-stuffing three man line.

The linebackers should also be an effective four man unit. Senior Mike Mohamed (112 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 INT) led the team in tackles and interceptions last season en route to a 1st Team All-Pac Ten season and he should be an elite player this fall. Juniors Mychal Kendricks (71 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and D.J. Holt (37 tackles) should also be major contributors and there are a number of highly-touted freshman arriving as well. Expect another great run defense from the Bears.

But the defensive backs are Tedford’s primary concern once again. Only lowly WSU gave up more yards through the air in 2009 and that was with multi-time 1st Team All-Pac Ten cornerback Syd’Quan Thompson (who was drafted in April) locking things down. This fall, junior safety Sean Cattouse (37 tackles, 1 INT) is the most experienced returnee after starting a measly six games last year. As if that wasn’t enough inexperience, elite true freshman Keenan Allen (who Tedford stole from Alabama right before signing day) is the favorite to start at the other safety spot! The cornerbacks aren’t going to be as green with seniors Darian Hagan and Brian Nnabuife (30 tackles apiece) and sophomore Josh Hill (34 tackles, 2 INT) locking the down the edges. There is no doubt that this will be the defense’s weakest spot again in 2010.

Overall, there are certainly reasons for optimism for the Bear defense. The front seven looks to be a stout unit that should make life tough for opposing running backs and it wouldn’t surprise me if Cal finished high in the ground game rankings again this fall. While there is going to be concern about the secondary after last year’s dismal showing, the depth at cornerback should definitely pick up their performance against the pass. This will be a stronger defense for the Golden Bears.

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SCHEDULE

Like most Pac Ten teams, California schedules aggressively. Thus, the non-conference trio of UC-Davis, Colorado and a visit to Nevada seems downright pedestrian compared to some of their past years. However, Nevada is a great running team and Colorado will be a conference rival in the coming years, so these will still be tough games.

As for conference play, the Bears have the good fortune of playing five home conference games this season. They’ll have home field advantage against Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Arizona State and archrival Stanford, setting them up favorably to compete. In fact, their final three games of the season are in Strawberry Canyon, so they’ll decide their conference fate on home turf. While this is undoubtedly a difficult schedule, it is manageable.

OUTLOOK

Honestly, things look great for California to make a surprise run at the conference championship. They have a consistent and balanced offense that will be piloted by a senior quarterback and their defense should be among the best in the league against the run. Furthermore, the Golden Bears have five home conference games, which is certainly an advantage over half of the Pac Ten.

However, I don’t see the Bears winning the league championship this season. First of all, it is very hard to look past their four losses in league play last season, where they were defeated by an average margin of 29 points! It seems like every time in the last few years that Cal has had a team capable of stepping up and taking control, they end up shooting themselves in the foot.

On top of that, the schedule is not as favorable as their home dates would indicate, as road trips to USC, Oregon State and Arizona will be daunting. While I believe that the Bears will be a major factor in the race heading into their final three games at home against Oregon, Stanford and Washington, I don’t have confidence in them to close the schedule strong after finishing the last three regular seasons with at least two losses in the final four games. However, their bowl streak should definitely continue, meaning Tedford will have had a winning record in every season he’s spent in Berkeley. The California Golden Bears are my pick to tie with three other teams to finish 4th in the Pac Ten Conference in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 8-4 (5-4 Pac Ten)