2010 Bowling Green Falcons Football Preview

2009 Results: 7-6, Lost Humanitarian Bowl vs. Idaho

Head Coach: Dave Clawson (2nd year @ BGSU, 65-55 Overall)

Home Venue: Perry Stadium (24,000), Bowling Green, Ohio

The first year under Dave Clawson was a surprise campaign for the Falcons, who got great efforts from a big senior class to earn bowl eligibility while actually competing for the MAC East crown. With an offensive attack led by record-setting wide receiver Freddie Barnes, who set a NCAA record for catches in a single season with a whopping 155, BGSU managed to outscore opponents en route to a 6-2 conference record.

However, that huge group of seniors is gone and Bowling Green has to face reality this fall as they are one of the most inexperienced teams in the entire country. They only have eight returning starters! Can Coach Clawson work his magic once more with a rebuilding team in 2010?

OFFENSE

The only place with any experience on offense in 2010 for the Falcons is at tailback, where senior Willie Geter (705 rush yards, 42 catches, 407 receiving yards, 10 total TDs in ’09) is the only key offensive player back from last year’s very productive attack. He will be relied upon heavily to get a gutted Bowling Green offense through this season. I’m worried that his numbers will take a big hit with an uncertain quarterback situation and an O-Line that only returns two starters. While the O-Line reserves should be better primed to step in after a full season learning Clawson’s system, the Falcons averaged less than 90 yards per game on the ground last fall, leaving me very anxious that they’re going to have another similarly unproductive season.

That lowly ground result was acceptable because senior QB Tyler Sheehan was flinging the ball all over the field with ease. However, this season will see an underclassman starting: Redshirt frosh Matt Schilz and sophomore Aaron Pankratz are the two leading candidates. Regardless of who wins the QB derby, the receivers are much diminished with the graduation of Barnes. Junior Adrian Hodges (46 catches, 417 yards, 2 TDs) and senior Tyrone Pronty (missed ’09 due to injury) are likely to be the starters and neither is a proven gamebreaker.

Overall, Clawson has a long history of offensive success as a head coach. However, there are so many huge holes to fill on offense for me to confidently predict that trend to continue. While the young quarterbacks have some talent (Schilz was originally a Kansas State commitment), they also have a serious lack of experience and will be throwing to one of the league’s most underwhelming sets of wideouts. Furthermore, I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Falcon O-Line to protect their quarterback with great consistency. While Geter should create some balance with his solid play, it won’t be enough for Clawson to continue his strong offensive showings and I think that the Falcon offense is in for a big step back this season.

DEFENSE

While the offense is highly untested, the defense might be even more inexperienced! However, I like their chances for success a little better as three of their five returning starters are defensive linemen.

Last season’s big defensive concern was the poor performance against the run, something that I chalk up to the Falcons starting multiple underclassmen on the line, including true freshmen Chris Jones and Jordan Roussos at D-Tackle! However, that weakness may become a strength this fall as this unit appears vastly improved and deep. I think that the Falcons will have a much stronger foundation for success against the run.

The other half of the run defense equation is an unknown, as all three linebackers will be first time starters in 2010. That said, I think that this group could end up being pretty effective. First of all, senior Eugene Fells (44 tackles, 1 sack) looks to be a natural candidate to emerge as a leader after playing a key backup role last year. Second, playing behind a much improved line will allow for a much smoother transition for the new starters, giving them a chance to build confidence and a track record of success.

Finally, the secondary, while heavily gouged with losses, is going to be a pretty solid unit. Juniors Keith Morgan (68 tackles, 1 INT) and Adrien Spencer (42 tackles, 1 INT) should be the anchors of a group that could feature all upperclassmen. However, this group will be tested more than they were last season as an improved run defense will cause opponents to try their luck through the air with greater frequency.

Overall, I think that Bowling Green will do a bang up job of rebuilding their defense. I think that they’ll perform better on the ground and their young line could end up as their best asset. However, I’m going to temper my expectations a bit because this will be a very young and inexperienced unit. If the Falcons can match last season’s allowance of 28 points per game while improving against the run then I think it will be a successful campaign.

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SCHEDULE

BGSU won’t get a break on the scheduling front in 2010. Three non-league road games at Michigan, Tulsa and Troy all appear to be difficult contests and a solid Marshall team will be the only non-MAC squad to visit Perry Stadium this fall. Meanwhile, their conference schedule sees them skip Akron on the divisional rotation while drawing Western Michigan and Toledo from the West, along with defending champion Central Michigan. This is going to be a really hard schedule (only 5 home games) for such a young team.

OUTLOOK

The theme of the season for the Falcons is going to be rebuilding, something that generally is accompanied by a losing year. Bowling Green is going to have a lot of trouble building a new offensive line while breaking in a quarterback with no starting experience. Furthermore, the loss of Barnes is the 2nd most crippling loss in the league, only behind CMU’s graduation of QB Dan LeFevour. I am not optimistic for BGSU to have a strong offensive season.

That is a major concern since their defense doesn’t really look better than average, at best. The Falcons will have a good D-Line that powers their improvement on the ground but I think that their inexperience in the back seven will be difficult to overcome. While this won’t be a bad defense, they will be on the field a lot while the offense struggles to move the ball and that is a formula for trouble. In the end, I expect the Falcons to endure a rebuilding campaign this fall and finish last in the MAC East Division.

PREDICTED RESULT: 2-10 (1-7 MAC)