2010 Baylor Bears Football Preview

2009 Results: 4-8, No Bowl

Head Coach: Art Briles (3rd year, 8-16 @ Baylor, 42-44 Overall)

Home Venue: Floyd Casey Stadium (50,000), Waco, Texas

2009 was supposed to be a breakthrough year for Baylor as many people expected the Bears to be earn their first bowl berth since 1994. However, those high hopes were dashed in week three when superstar quarterback Robert Griffin tore his ACL. Without his sublime talents running things, the offense fell off by more than a touchdown and dive-bombed the team’s bowl hopes. Can the Bears regroup this season and make another run at a bowl game, this time with a healthy Griffin?

OFFENSE

The loss of Griffin can’t be overstated: He threw for 2,091 yards and 15 TDs against only 3 INT while rushing for 843 yards as a true freshman in 2008! His near-Olympic speed paired with his accurate passing makes him one of the most dangerous players in the country. With the poor quarterback play that the Bears received after his injury, I think it is safe to say that few players in the entire nation meant more to their team than Griffin did. Expect a great campaign from him this fall as he will bolster their rushing attack and their aerial assault in a major manner now that he is fully recovered from injury.

It is the rest of the offense that worries me. While junior receiver Kendall Wright (66 catches, 740 yards, 4 TDs) is going to be the number one option, the only other returnee that was remotely productive last season is sophomore Lanear Simpson (29 catches, 297 yards, 2 TDs). With a lack of depth, I think Wright will see a lot of double teams and that could pinch the passing game’s productivity.

The running game is less of a concern. No one on the team exceeded 400 yards on the ground last fall but Griffin’s playmaking skills and elusiveness will definitely kick-start this team’s ground attack. On top of that, the returning tailbacks will be led by senior Jay Finley (370 yards, 1 TD), who ran for 1,000 yards next to Griffin in 2008 before struggling with injury last year. With sophomore Jarred Salubi proving a change of pace after rushing for six yards per carry last season, I think that this should be a productive running game.

The great unknown on this offense is the O-Line, where the Bears must replace two 3 year starters, one of whom was a 3rd round NFL draft pick. This unit was reshuffled in the spring to try to compensate for the losses and I am worried that Baylor will continue to have trouble opening holes in the running game. That said, a mobile quarterback makes an O-Line look a lot better and I’m cautiously optimistic that these guys will get the job done.

Overall, I can’t overstate the impact that Griffin’s return will have on this offense. His career 19-3 touchdown to interception ratio stands in stark contrast to last season’s 7-14 ratio that his replacements posted, so the step up will be enormous. I have a lot of confidence that Baylor will make a big jump in offensive production in 2010.

DEFENSE

The defense doesn’t inspire the same confidence for improvement this fall: Four of the five top tacklers are gone and there is no Griffinesque savior returning to inject instant excellence into this unit. Baylor allowed the 3rd most yards among Big XII teams in 2009 and they will need to improve their weak run defense if they expect to see any improvement this fall.

Unfortunately for Baylor, I’m not very high on their chances to improve against the run this season. While senior Penn State transfer Phil Taylor (25 tackles) should be a significantly bigger force inside this year, the rest of the D-Line leaves a lot to be desired as there is not a lot of experience coming back. I feel that this group is unlikely to create a remotely intimidating pass rush on their own and the Bears should be happy if they hold up well against the run.

At linebacker, senior Antonio Johnson (77 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) is the only returning starter and he is also the team’s top returning tackler from last season. On top of that, classmate Earl Patin (38 tackles) has waited three year for a chance to start and he should be a steady contributor this season as a starter for the first time. Both players should have productive campaigns in 2010.

The secondary is a decidedly mixed bag for the Bears: They appear strong at cornerback with senior Clifton Odom (33 tackles, 1 INT) and sophomore Chance Casey (36 tackles, 2 INT) returning but the safety position will be manned by a rotating cast of characters. Baylor got dealt some bad luck in the offseason when 5 star safety Ahmad Dixon didn’t enroll after signing in the spring because he was expected to start immediately. I simply don’t see many playmakers to bolt down the back end of this defense and that could be a season-long liability.

Overall, there aren’t really any standouts on this defense. I think that the Bears are going to be passable against the run, especially with Taylor holding down the middle of the line, but I don’t see Baylor sacking the quarterback very often and that will hurt their pass coverage. With a lack of serviceable safeties, I think that this defense will also be liable to be hit with the big passing play. There are so many holes and unknowns and I just don’t see the Bears fielding anything more than a sufficient defense in 2010.

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SCHEDULE

Baylor has been historically hamstrung by their Big XII South rivals. After all, how many teams will succeed playing against Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma in a four week span? However, their draw from the North is quite tame this season, as they host Kansas and Kansas State while making one final visit to Colorado as a conference rival. That should make the normally brutal South schedule much easier to bear. Outside of Big XII play, the Bears don’t play a single BCS conference team but their September visit to TCU is easily the most daunting task from an otherwise simple non-league portion. This is the kind of schedule that smiles favorably upon Baylor’s bowl aspirations.

OUTLOOK

I said last season that Robert Griffin would lead Baylor to a bowl game in his sophomore season. However, I didn’t anticipate it would be his redshirt sophomore season. That was the only silver lining with his injury: He was hurt early enough to qualify for an extra year of eligibility. But now that he is fully healthy, I think that the Bear offense will explode and keep the team in almost every single game this fall. While I am highly concerned about Baylor’s average defense, they play a very favorable schedule and I think that the return of their superstar will result in the school’s first postseason appearance since 1994. The Baylor Bears are my choice to finish 4th in the Big XII South Division.

PREDICTED RESULT: 6-6 (3-5 Big XII)