2010 Auburn Tigers Football Preview

2009 Results: 8-5, Won Outback Bowl vs. Northwestern

Head Coach: Gene Chizik (2nd year, 8-5 @ Auburn, 13-24 Overall)

Home Venue: Jordan-Hare Stadium (87,451) Auburn, Alabama

There was much gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands in War Eagle territory two winters ago when Gene Chizik was hired fresh off of a miserable two year tenure at lowly Iowa State. After all, former coach Tommy Tuberville wasn’t good enough to keep his job despite a 7-3 mark against hated Alabama, an 85-40 record and an undefeated season in 2004, so expectations were high for a major name to replace him. However, Chizik has quickly quieted the doubters by assembling an excellent coaching staff that has proven to be tremendous recruiters and strong on-field leaders. That all combined to produce an eight win campaign last fall that was capped off by a thrilling overtime Outback Bowl win against Northwestern of the rival Big Ten.

But the test this fall will be Chizik and company’s ability to retool their offense after losing two vanguard contributors. As the Tigers had the 3rd highest scoring attack in the league, there is definitely concern that this season’s unit won’t match last year’s superb production. On top of that, Auburn’s rebound season also coincided with their worst defensive showing in decades as they allowed 27.5 points per contest, so there is clearly a lot of work to do. Can the Tigers reload and compete in the SEC West?

OFFENSE

Offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn really engineered a spectacular turnaround, as the Tigers doubled their production from 17 points per game in Tuberville’s final year to 33 points per game last fall! A large portion of this credit goes to departed QB Chriss Todd (2,600 yards, 22 TD, 6 INT in ’09), who did a fantastic job of protecting the football while making smart decisions. His replacement this season is expected to be junior transfer Cam Newton, a one-time Florida Gator that has all of the physical talent in the world. His running abilities will definitely add a new dimension to Malzahn’s scheme but I find it unlikely that he’ll match Todd’s excellent decision-making in the passing game.

The good news is that Newton will have a strong set of returning receivers to work with, led by junior Darvin Adams (60 catches, 997 yards, 10 TDs), a 1st Team All-SEC selection in 2009. Senior Terrell Zachary (26 catches, 477 yards, 5 TDs) will join him in the starting lineup, giving Newton a solid pair of pass catchers to work with. Another dimension is the screen game, which will feature senior tailback Mario Fannin (42 catches, 413 yards, 3 TDs), who was the team’s 2nd leading receiver last year. Don’t forget about junior tight end Eric Smith (18 catches, 226 yards, 1 TD) either, as he could be a solid option as a safety blanket. With a season under their belts in Malzahn’s scheme, the receivers should be much more comfortable and that bodes well for an effective passing game this fall.

The tailbacks are also going to be an impressive group. Fannin (285 rush yards) will split time with electric sophomore Onterio McCalab (585 yards, 4 TDs), who was very exciting before struggling with injuries down the stretch. Both players are extremely talented and should improve upon their production from last season. Also keep an eye on freshmen Donte Aycock and Michael Dyer, both of whom are capable of seeing a lot of carries this fall.

However, the absolute best news about this offense is up front, where four seniors return to pave the way. Tackle Lee Ziemba (1st Team All-SEC) and center Ryan Pugh (2nd Team All-SEC) were recognized in last year’s postseason awards and guards Mike Berry and Byron Isom will both be entering their 3rd season in the starting five! This is going to be one of the best O-Lines in the country this fall.

There is certainly a bevy of talent on hand for the Tigers. Their offensive line will open up plenty of holes for their gifted tailbacks to burn through and I fully expect another great season running the ball. As for the passing game, Newton’s lack of experience against SEC competition is a concern, but his athleticism and talented receiving corps should help ease the transition. There is no question that this is one of the league’s most gifted offenses and they should finish once more among the league leaders in point production.

DEFENSE

Where the Tigers struggled last fall was on defense, as they allowed the most points of any team in the conference. Auburn simply didn’t hold up well against the run, as only Kentucky and Vanderbilt allowed more yards on the ground among SEC squads. Needless to say, this has to improve if the Tigers are going to be a threat in the West. Can Auburn lock down defensively this autumn?

Up front, the Tigers have to deal with the loss of Antonio Coleman (49 tackles, 10 sacks), who was their biggest playmaker on the line. While both starting ends will be seniors, neither Antoine Carter (30 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and Michael Goggans (24 tackles, 1 sacks) is going to come close to replacing Coleman’s disruptive presence and production. At the tackle position, things look better as senior Mike Blanc (44 tackles, 3.5 sacks) is a strong player that will pair with new starter Nick Fairley (28 tackles, 1.5 sacks), who should have a productive season after contributing extensively as a backup in ‘09. The problem with this group is that they’re going to rely on a lot of underclassmen for depth and that could be a problem if injuries rear their ugly head this fall. Without any really dominant performers up front, I’m not optimistic that Auburn is going to make any major strides against the run.

The linebackers are another matter entirely. Seniors Josh Bynes (104 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Craig Stevens (95 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT) were the team’s top two tacklers in 2009 and both should continue their excellent play this year. As for the 3 rd ‘backer spot, sophomores Darren Bates (70 tackles, 1 sacks) and Jonathan Evans (28 tackles) both played extensively last fall and should round out one of the league’s most productive groups, though Bates might play some in the secondary after moving down from safety in the spring. The linebackers give me a lot of hope for a superior run defense this year.

Auburn also needs to make some major improvements through the air after they finished 10th in the league against the pass last fall. This was an injury-ravaged unit at safety, as junior Mike McNeil was forced to redshirt after starting in 2008 and senior Zac Etheridge (52 tackles) missed the final month. However, the coaches were so confident that both were ready for the fall that they moved Bates to linebacker to get as many playmakers on the field as possible. Meanwhile, junior corner Neiko Thorpe (84 tackles, 2 INT) had a fantastic year in 2009 and should emerge as one of the league’s better defensive backs this fall. If this group can avoid injury, there is a lot of talent and depth and that seems to indicate that the Tigers are in for a turnaround against the pass.

The overriding concern that I have about this unit is the defensive line. While there are a lot of upperclassmen that are going to contribute, there isn’t really a single standout performer. Yes, Blanc is going to be solid against the run, but I don’t see this group doing much more than holding up slightly better on the ground this fall. Chizik’s notable recruiting efforts also won’t be felt here this season, since it takes a while for most D-Linemen to put on the weight necessary to really have an impact. The secondary is also a concern: Despite the presence of an elite pass-rusher like Coleman last season, the pass defense had a really tough campaign. Yes, they’re going to be improved with better health, but will they be so improved that they can overcome the expected deficiencies at getting to the quarterback? I don’t think so. This is going to be a decent defense, but I will be surprised if they jump into the upper half of the SEC this fall.

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SCHEDULE

The best way to describe Auburn’s schedule would be ‘on and off’. After an easy opener against D-1AA Arkansas State, they face a difficult Thursday road game at Mississippi State before coming home to play Clemson and South Carolina. However, those games are followed be a defacto off week against lowly Louisiana-Monore before traveling to Kentucky. Unfortunately, another tough stretch kicks in after that as the UK game leads into back to back home affairs against Arkansas and LSU before visiting Ole Miss!

The trend continues after that as the Tigers get a virtual off week against D-1AA Chattanooga before they host East contender Georgia. Then Auburn has an actual off week for the 2nd consecutive year before playing archrival Alabama in the Iron Bowl! While this schedule won’t be easy with Clemson on the non-conference docket and contenders South Carolina and Georgia waiting from the East, the Tigers have eight home games and their only daunting road test comes at the end of the year against the Crimson Tide.

OUTLOOK

A lot of people are really high on Auburn heading into the season and I can understand their enthusiasm. Chizik’s team really exceeded expectations last fall and any questions about his qualifications for the job have long since been quieted. The entire coaching staff is now receiving a lot of credit for their brilliant recruiting and the improvement on offense has War Eagle Country excited about their in-game abilities as well. With a veteran offensive line and quality receivers returning from last season’s team, there are very high hopes for Auburn to have another strong season on offense.

However, I think that a lot of people are now giving this team too much credit: They have to replace one of the conference’s most efficient passers with an unproven (but admittedly physically gifted) quarterback that only arrived on campus this spring and they also have to replace a 1,300 yard rusher in the backfield. Then on the other side of the ball, Auburn has to hope that their D-Line can generate a pass rush and hold up against the run while their now-healthy secondary can improve mightily from last year’s very poor showing!

Yes, there are some very bright spots with this group of Tigers, but I don’t think Auburn can keep up with Alabama or Arkansas this fall in the difficult SEC West Division. Another mid-level bowl (perhaps the Cotton Bowl?) seems to be likely postseason destination, though I do think that they will eclipse last season’s eight win total. The Auburn Tigers are my choice to finish 3rd in the SEC West Division in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 9-3 (5-3 SEC)