2010 Arkansas Razorbacks Football Preview

2009 Results: 8-5, Won Liberty Bowl vs. East Carolina

Head Coach: Bobby Petrino (3rd year, 13-12 @ Arkansas, 52-21 Overall)

Home Venue: Razorback Stadium (72,000) Fayetteville, Arkansas

Last season was a very positive step forward in season two of the Bobby Petrino era. Arkansas won eight games, including the Liberty Bowl, and established themselves as one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the country. The Razorbacks managed their winning season in spite of a difficult gauntlet of road games and are considered a rising program with Petrino at the helm. With the most veteran team in the entire conference, can Arkansas compete in the SEC West Division?

OFFENSE

The reason for the turnaround last fall was the performance of the offense, which scored an SEC-best 36 points per game! Much of that credit should go to junior quarterback Ryan Mallett (3,624 yards, 30 TDs, 7 INT in ’09), a Michigan transfer who was named SEC’s 2nd Team in the postseason awards only because Tim Tebow was listed on the 1st Team as a lifetime award of sorts. Mallett is a perfect fit for Petrino’s pass-happy offense and he is widely considered to be a future 1st round NFL pick. He’s also going to be the best quarterback in the SEC this season.

Even better news is at wideout, where Mallett has a great group of pass catchers at his disposal. Juniors Joe Adams (7 games, 29 catches, 568 yards, 7 TDs, 2nd Team All-SEC), Greg Childs (48 catches, 894 yards, 7 TDs) and Jarius Wright (41 catches, 681 yards, 5 TDs) are three of the most dangerous players in the entire conference and sophomore Cobi Hamilton (19 catches, 347 yards, 3 TDs) was a big play threat as a true freshman! On top of that talented quartet of wide receivers, senior tight end D.J. Williams (32 catches, 411 yards, 3 TDs) was a 2nd Team All-SEC selection and is widely considered a future NFL star. This is the deepest group of receivers in the entire SEC and it isn’t even close. Arkansas is going to pile up yards through the air this season.

But that much passing success requires good protection for Mallett and fortunately Arkansas has a great O-Line to watch his back. Four starters return from last season, three of whom are seniors, and this group should continue to progress in their 3rd season in Petrino’s system. Expect another strong campaign protecting their star quarterback.

But the one area that needs to improve for Arkansas to become a truly elite unit is in the running game. Petrino has a reputation of favoring a passing attack and it showed last year as the Razorbacks attempted the fewest running plays in the entire SEC! However, there are a lot of talented runners on this team as junior Broderick Green (442 yards, 11 TDs) and sophomore Ronnie Wingo (319 yards, 3 TDs) are going to be the primary ball carriers this fall. Expect this solid tandem to bring a bit more balance to the attack as I expect Arkansas to run the ball with greater frequency.

Quite simply, this was the best offense in the SEC last season and virtually everyone is back for another round. The Razorbacks have the top quarterback in the conference (perhaps the entire country) and the receivers are also an elite group. The offensive line is a veteran unit that should continue their solid play and I expect that they’ll get a few more chances to open holes for an improved running game. Assuming there are no major injuries, this will be the top offense in the SEC for the second consecutive season.

DEFENSE

Many people are automatically ignoring this team as a contender because the defense finished 8th in the league in scoring defense last year at 25 points per game, but that is a major mistake. First of all, the Hogs cut down opponents’ scoring by six points per contest last season after finished dead last in the league in 2008. On top of that, they showed progress throughout the season, allowing only 22 points per game in the final six contests! With a veteran returning unit, can Arkansas break into the league’s upper echelon on defense this fall?

The Razorbacks struggled against the run in 2009, finishing 8 th in the SEC while allowing 153 rush yards per game. That means they need to improve on the front line if this season is going to turn out differently. The good news is that Arkansas played a lot of freshmen last season and all of them will benefit from their trial by fire. At defensive tackle, junior Zach Stadther (42 tackles) will pair with sophomore DeQuinta Jones (24 tackles, 2.5 sacks) in the starting unit but there is also good depth as junior Lavunce Askew (18 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and senior Patrick Jones will rotate in. At defensive end, junior Jake Bequette (39 tackles, 5.5 sacks) was the star of Spring Practice after playing extensively during the last two seasons and I think that he’s a candidate to have a breakout season. He’ll pair with sophomore Tenarious Wright (34 tackles, 1.5 sacks) in the starting lineup and I expect a solid pass rush to emerge from both of them this season. I think that Arkansas’ D-Line will take a big step forward this season as their younger players will be significantly stronger in the trenches.

The Razorbacks should also be able to count on a solid group of linebackers. Juniors Jerry Franklin (94 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and Jerico Nelson (74 tackles, 2.5 sacks) were the team’s #1 and #3 tacklers in 2009, respectively, and both should benefit from the improvement on the D-Line. Senior Freddy Burton (54 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) also played extensively last fall, so Arkansas will have a talented and veteran group of ‘backers this season.

But the part of the defense that I’m going to be watching the closest is the secondary. This group allowed a touchdown of at least 60 yards in eight consecutive games last year, so they need to show some major improvement. Senior Rudell Crim (43 tackles) was moved from corner to safety in the spring, where he’ll team with junior Elton Ford (65 tackles) to form a fairly effective final line of defense. Both players looked strong throughout March and Crim has a history of success at the position from his days in junior college. Meanwhile, Petrino felt confident in three corners coming out of the spring: Senior Ramon Broadway (55 tackles), junior Isaac Madison (who missed ’09 with a knee injury) and sophomore Darius Winston, who was much more physical after a tentative freshman campaign. With improved pressure on the quarterback, I think that the reshuffling will pay off this fall with a much better pass defense.

Overall, I think that the Hogs will continue to make strides forward on defense. The D-Line will be much better prepared to hold up to the rigors of an SEC season and junior Bequette could have an All-SEC type campaign. With the depth on the line and the veteran presence at linebacker, I think that Arkansas will definitely be improved against the run. On top of that, the secondary should be significantly better as well with the safety position is solidified. As the cornerbacks appear primed for a much better season, I think that the Hogs will cut way back on big plays and take another big jump forward into the top half of the league.

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SCHEDULE

The Razorbacks have a pretty manageable schedule this season. Outside of SEC play, the only BCS Conference opponent will be Texas A&M, who has become a yearly foe at JerryWorld in Dallas. Aside from that notable showdown, they play UTEP, Louisiana-Monroe and D-1AA Tennessee Tech, and they will not lose any of those three home games.

The SEC schedule is a lot tougher, as their first three league games are probably their most difficult conference clashes. Arkansas opens SEC play in Week 3 with a visit to Georgia before coming home the next week to take on defending champion Alabama. After an off week precedes the trip to Dallas to play A&M, the Hogs return to the conference to play at Auburn! On top of that stretch, the other two SEC road games are at South Carolina and Mississippi State, which means the final half of the year includes home tilts against Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and rival LSU. While this appears fairly daunting on paper, facing Georgia and Alabama early is a key advantage for the Razorbacks and that makes this schedule a little less difficult. On top of that, this road schedule is nothing compared to last season’s brutal away slate.

OUTLOOK

Upon closer inspection, the question for the Hogs this fall shouldn’t be whether they can compete in the SEC West, it should be whether they can win the SEC West! There is no doubt that their offense will be a terror to deal with for every single team on the schedule since they have so many weapons that it is going to be simply impossible to cover everyone.

As for the defense, Arkansas looks primed for another big improvement this fall. The D-Linemen are much more experienced, the linebackers are going to be more effective playing behind a stout front and the secondary appears to be much less chaotic with some position changes in the spring. On top of that, this was a much stronger unit in the 2 nd half of 2009 and their 5-1 record (the only loss was in overtime at LSU) was a direct result of their enhanced play. If this defense can really play at the level that I am expecting, the Razorbacks are going to be one of the league’s best teams.

It all boils down to the schedule for Arkansas. After two patsies to open the season, they have to travel to Georgia, one of the toughest road environments in the league, to face off against a solid Bulldog squad. The good news is that Georgia’s secondary is going to be very inexperienced at that point and that makes them ripe for Mallett’s dazzling set of wideouts to pick them apart. That will be the difference in a big opening win.

But that is followed up by their most important game of the entire season: At home against the Alabama Crimson Tide. This game represents an enormous opportunity for the Razorbacks because Alabama’s completely rebuilt defense includes one of the youngest groups of defensive backs in the entire conference. That means for the 2nd consecutive week, the supercharged Hog passing game gets to face off against a rebuilding secondary and I fully expect them to take advantage. I think that Arkansas will upset the Tide and become the hunted team in the SEC West.

Now, I’m not about to say that Arkansas will use those two wins to springboard to an undefeated season. They have tough road games at Auburn, South Carolina and Mississippi State after that and I think they’ll probably lose one or two of those games. But with home field advantage against LSU to close the season, I think that they’ll finish with a 6-2 mark in SEC play to tie with Alabama for the division crown. On the strength of their head to head victory over the Tide, the Arkansas Razorbacks are my pick to win the SEC West Division in 2010.

That means that the Hogs will head to Atlanta to play for the SEC Championship. After falling short in their three previous attempts to win the conference title, Arkansas will see a familiar foe awaiting them from the Eastern side: Georgia. The Dawgs are my pick from the East on the strength of their powerful running game and improved defense and they will be a completely different team than the one that I picked Arkansas to beat in September. But even with Georgia’s stronger pass defense and a much more experienced freshman at quarterback, the Hogs have too much of an edge thanks to their superstar quarterback. While an 11-2 record won’t be enough to play for the National Title, Ryan Mallett will lead Arkansas to the SEC title for the first time in school history. The Arkansas Razorbacks are my choice to win the 2010 SEC Conference Championship and they will play in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day.

PREDICTED RESULT: 10-2 (6-2 SEC)