2010 Arizona Wildcats Football Preview

2009 Results: 8-5, Lost Holiday Bowl vs. Nebraska

Head Coach: Mike Stoops (7th year @ UA, 33-39 Overall)

Home Venue: Arizona Stadium (57,400)

It took Mike Stoops four seasons of struggle before he finally got the Arizona Wildcats up and running, but the last two seasons were the school’s first back to back bowl berths since the late 90s! Last year was particularly exciting as the Wildcats made a serious push for a Rose Bowl berth, only falling short due to a double overtime loss to eventual conference champion Oregon. However, a season that featured a 6-3 Pac Ten record with road victories over archrival Arizona State and bully USC has to go down as an extremely successful year.

However, things are going to be a lot different this season in Tucson. Both coordinators have departed and Stoops is faced with a big rebuilding job on defense. Will turnover prevent Arizona from taking advantage of a wide open Pac Ten and claiming their first Rose Bowl berth in school history?

OFFENSE

The Wildcats struggled to score points in the early going last fall, leading to sophomore quarterback Nick Foles (2,486 yards, 19 TDs, 9 INT in ’09) taking over the starting role against Oregon State in the 4th week of the season and promptly leading Arizona to a hugely successful campaign. Now a junior, Foles is one of the best quarterbacks in a conference renowned for the quality of its signal-callers and he should have an excellent season from the beginning.

The receivers are also a very talented and deep unit. Juniors Juron Criner (45 catches, 682 yards, 9 TDs), David Roberts (43 catches, 410 yards, 1 TD) and senior Delashaun Dean (42 catches, 396 yards, 2 TDs) will form one of the most dangerous trios in the Pac Ten this fall. Meanwhile, juniors David Douglas (31 catches, 320 yards, 2 TDs) and Bug Wright (23 catches, 234 yards, 1 TD) round out a very deep group that will give Foles a ton of options to distribute the football. There is no doubt that this will be a very effective passing attack.

But it won’t be all about the aerial assault in Tucson this season as the Wildcats have a trio of talented runners that should bring great balance to the offense. Senior Nic Grigsby (567 yards, 5 TDs) is a former 1,000 yard rusher who will be the primary runner after struggling with injuries last fall. Meanwhile, junior Keola Antolin (637 yards, 4 TDs) and sophomore Greg Nwoko (273 yards, 3 TDs) will provide great depth and a change of pace to keep Grigsby healthy. Expect a strong running game from this group in 2010.

Creating room for all of this offensive talent to work will be one of the Pac Ten’s best offensive lines. Three starters are back, led by two seniors: 1st Team All-Pac Ten center Colin Baxter and 2nd Team All-Pac Ten tackle Adam Grant. All five starters are probably going to be upperclassmen and that’s a great sign for success. One major concern: There is not a lot of depth behind the 1st stringers, so any health woes could really hurt this group’s effectiveness.

All signs point to a strong offensive campaign in Tucson this season. Arizona has one of the league’s best quarterbacks running their offense, a fleet of talented receivers, a strong stable of tailbacks led by one of the conference’s best runners and a senior-laden offensive line. This group will definitely score a ton of points in 2010 if the depth-challenged O-Line stays healthy.

DEFENSE

The defensive side of the football is another matter entirely. A year after allowing the 2nd fewest total yards in the Pac Ten, the Wildcats have to enact a wholesale change at linebacker and replace four 2nd Team all-league selections overall. With a new coordinator-by-committee approach, can Arizona rebuild their defense and remain near the top of the league?

While there are a few positions that are definitely worrisome, defensive end is not one of them. Seniors Ricky Elmore (44 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 2nd Team All-Pac Ten) and Brooks Reed (23 tackles, 2 sacks) should be an excellent pair of bookend rushers that will generate a solid pass rush. While the starting defensive tackles have to be replaced, sophomore Ohio State transfer Willie Mobley and junior Jonathan Hollins were impressive in the spring and should fill in adequately. With a lot of depth returning, this looks like one of the league’s best lines, though they are somewhat undersized.

The linebacker position will be the primary concern for Stoops this fall, as all three starters from last season have departed. The good news is that sophomore Jake Fischer was one of the stars of spring practice and appears to have locked down the middle linebacker position. However, filling one position won’t be enough to confidently proclaim that this will be a great unit and I think they’ll be less effective as a group this fall. With undersized starting tackles, that makes the run defense a concern.

The good news is that Arizona will be able to cheat their linebackers up a bit more this season to help out with the run because their secondary is going to be very good. Junior cornerback Trevin Wade (71 tackles, 5 INT) was a 1st Team All-Pac Ten choice last fall and he is a shutdown defender. Junior safety Robert Golden (41 tackles, 2 INT) is also a strong returnee and will pair with exceptional sophomore Adam Hall (who saw the field a lot in ‘09 after his redshirt was pulled at midseason) in the starting lineup. There is a ton of raw athleticism in this group and they will also reap the rewards of a strong pass rush from the D-Line. The Wildcats were the Pac Ten’s 3rd rated pass defense last season and this group might be even better this fall.

Overall, the one major concern that I have is the run defense. With a pair of undersized defensive tackles and a completely new set of linebackers, teams will run the ball up the gut early and often until the Wildcats can prove that they can stop it. Furthermore, Arizona is going to be very good against the pass, so opponents will have to run if they want to beat this team. Expect the run stoppers to develop over the course of the year and lock down the one liability on this defense.

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SCHEDULE

Speaking of stopping the run, Arizona’s one major non-conference showdown will be a heavy test on the ground as top ten Iowa comes to Tucson in September. Aside from the clash against the Hawkeyes, this is a weak non-league slate as the Wildcats head to Toledo and host D-1AA The Citadel to kick off the year.

Arizona also has a favorable Pac Ten schedule that features five home games. Even better, two of their road games come against expected bottom-feeders UCLA and Washington State, so if they can defend their home field it could be a special season. With two off weeks built in, this is a very favorable schedule for the Wildcats.

OUTLOOK

Arizona is definitely a contender in the Pac Ten this season. After all, the league is defined by their excellent offensive play and Mike Stoops’ team will be able to score points with the best of them in 2010. However, their defense has one noticeable hole and that’s their run defense. The key to the Wildcats legitimately chasing the Rose Bowl is the quick development of their linebackers and if that happens they will be a serious threat to win the conference.

Unfortunately, I foresee a late season of heartbreak for Arizona. While I think that a 6-2 start is a strong possibility for the ‘Cats, including a 4-1 or 5-0 league record, their final four games are exceptionally difficult. The Fightin’ Stoopses have to travel to Stanford and Oregon while hosting USC and archrival Arizona State to close the year and all four teams are going to be very difficult tasks. I’m afraid that this stretch will derail an excellent start and knock the Wildcats back into the middle of the conference pack. However, I will be very surprised if they don’t earn their 3 rd consecutive bowl berth for the first time since 1992-94. The Arizona Wildcats are my choice to tie with three other teams to finish 4th in the Pac Ten Conference in 2010.

PREDICTED RESULT: 7-5 (5-4 Pac Ten)